NFL Playoff Teams With Best Super Bowl Odds Value Heading into the Divisional Round
Current Super Bowl odds have the San Francisco 49ers as the odds-on favorite to hoist the Lombardi Trophy next month. However — with eight teams still running — there is still substantial value on the board to consider for Super Bowl 58 bets. Could teams like the Detroit Lions or Green Bay Packers turn their long odds into a Super Bowl appearance? Or is a San Francisco vs. Baltimore Super Bowl matchup destined to be?
Given the updated odds, let’s look at what longshot teams have the most value in betting markets.
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Detroit Lions ()
The Lions entered the playoffs off a historic regular season performance that saw many key pieces fall into place. One game into the playoffs, they’ve stayed there.
Detroit took care of business against Los Angeles at Ford Field. With a Cowboys loss, they secured home-field advantage heading into the Divisional Round. They are 7-2 at Ford Field and 12-3 as favorites this year. Detroit has become one of the most dynamic offenses in the NFL, leveraging players like Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery in the backfield — who averaged a combined 140 yards per game in the regular season —along with leading pass-catchers like Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta. Not to mention Jared Goff, who just orchestrated an 81.5% completion rate (season-high) against the Rams, has been a magician all year. This offensive unit will be a tough match for a Buccaneers defense ranked 14th in defensive DVOA.
Baker Mayfield orchestrated a remarkable season and that cannot be overlooked. He could easily beat up on a Lions pass defense ranked 25th in success rate and EPA. Detroit does have the advantage up front, ranking third in pressure rate and first in rush defense DVOA, so expect the ball to be in the air a lot. Even with Tampa Bay’s hot offense, the Lions are the better team overall here (hence the 6.5-point favorite status), and playing at Ford Field has proven to be too big of an advantage not to expect them to win here. But Mayfield won’t go down without a fight – he’s proven that much.
Beating what will likely be the 49ers in the NFC Championship game would be a challenge, given the defensive struggles of this Lions team, but crazier things have happened. The Lions’ pass defense remains an issue that could thwart these chances as the secondary has surrendered the sixth-highest passing success rate in the NFL and ranks 16th in DVOA and 25th in EPA and success rate. However, C.J. Gardner-Johnson is back in the lineup after missing most of the season, so they get a boost there.
That said, at +900, the Lions are my favorite team to win based on value alone though there are options to hedge down the road.
Baltimore Ravens ()
If there’s a short-odds favorite I’m investing in to win the Super Bowl, the Ravens are the easy pick. They’re the most complete team in football, with the top four ranks in DVOA on offense, defense, and special teams. On Christmas Day, they traveled to San Francisco as 6-point underdogs and made quick work of what had seemed like an unbeatable opponent.
The Ravens’ coaching staff is elite from top to bottom as John Harbaugh has plucked two incredible coordinators from the college ranks in OC Todd Monken and DC Mike Macdonald. Monken has spurred Lamar Jackson’s likely second MVP season with a balanced offensive approach featuring a dominant run game and deep pass-catching group.
Jackson’s regular season success has yet to extend to the playoffs in his career with just a 1-3 playoff record, but he’s ready to put that by the wayside this season. He saves his best for last, throwing for 321 yards and five touchdowns in a Week 17 win over the Dolphins that helped the Ravens clinch the top seed in the AFC.
Mike Macdonald’s defense, meanwhile, has his name atop many lists for head coaching openings across the NFL. The former Michigan defensive coordinator, Macdonald’s successor Jesse Minter just helped Michigan win the National Championship in college football with the same defensive approach. Marcus Williams, Marlon Humphrey, Roquan Smith, and Justin Madubike are some of the elite names featured in this group.
+270 odds imply a 25.6% chance to win the Super Bowl, which seems short, given where the rest of the teams in the AFC stand. The Chiefs’ offense has been broken for most of the season. The Bills still haven’t put everything together despite their recent win streak. The Ravens are the best team in the AFC by a decent margin, and we already know they can handle the 49ers if it comes to that.
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Green Bay Packers ()
Having won four straight games — including a 48-32 thrashing of the No. 2 seeded Dallas Cowboys in the Wild Card Round — arguably no team in the NFL is hotter than the Green Bay Packers. With a Divisional Round matchup set against the No. 1 seeded San Francisco 49ers, the Packers will have their work cut out for them in a game they enter as 10-point underdogs. If they win that game, however, the only thing that would stand in the way would likely be a road matchup against NFC the Detroit Lions.
The last time the Lions and Packers played each other in Detroit was on Thanksgiving Day, and the Packers won that game by 7. Jordan Love has thrown for at least two touchdowns in his last four starts. Perhaps more notable, he hasn’t thrown a pick in any game.
The youngest team to make the playoffs since at least 1978, this Packers team has come a long way since their 3-6 start. The lynchpin for this team moving forward in the playoffs will likely be their defense. Of all the Wild Card teams that have played up through Monday evening, the Packers have ranked 4th in coverage, 2nd in tackling, and 8th in pressure, according to PFF. Albeit a one-game sample size, if the Packers can sustain any level of success here, they will be a dangerous team going forward.
All told it’s not a bad bet to take a flier at +3000 (30 to 1) odds on a team playing their best football heading into the Divisional Round.
