San Francisco 49ers vs. Philadelphia Eagles NFL Player Props & Picks (12/3/23)
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49ers vs. Eagles Player Prop Picks
The best game of week 13 features a marquee matchup between the two best teams in the NFC as the Philadelphia Eagles (10-1) host the San Francisco 49ers (8-3). With elite playmakers all over both rosters, there are plenty of intriguing options for player prop bets in this matchup. This article analyzes the betting odds for player prop bets in this game and recommends the best 49ers vs. Eagles player prop bets.
George Kittle 60+ alt receiving yards (+152 at FanDuel)
The first player we looked at for a player prop bet in this matchup was 49ers tight end George Kittle. The Eagles have historically struggled at defending tight ends because their organizational philosophy deprioritizes safeties and linebackers – the two positions usually most responsible for matching up with tight ends.
This season has been no exception, as they have given up several big games to tight ends, although their overall numbers against the position are more middle-of-the-pack than bottom-of-the-league (18th in yards allowed and 20th in receptions allowed). Still, against a tight end as talented as Kittle, they are at a significant disadvantage, especially with top linebacker Zach Cunningham expected to miss this game.
Kittle has been a bit feast-or-famine this season. He has six games with 60+ receiving yards and five games with 30 or fewer receiving yards. He doesn’t really have mediocre games – he’s either great, or almost non-existent. Given the choice between those two outcomes this week, we feel very confident he’s got a big game coming.
Four of those six games with 60+ receiving yards have come over his last 5 games, when he has averaged 5.6 receptions for 90.2 yards per game. He has gone way over his receiving yards prop line in all four of those games, which is why we prefer to be more aggressive with a Kittle player prop bet. While his “regular” prop line is 47.5 yards, the chances are that if he hits the over he will be closer to 60+ yards. Betting the alt line at 60+ yards gives us very appealing +152 odds.
DeVonta Smith over 58.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)
After a quiet start to the season, DeVonta Smith has really started finding his rhythm over the last 4 games, which has also coincided with Dallas Goedert’s absence. Smith has 99+ receiving yards in 3 of his last 4 games including his last two in a row, both of which Goedert has missed.
When Goedert missed five games last season, Smith averaged 5 receptions on 8.4 targets for 84 yards per game. Prior to Goedert’s injury, he was still averaging 5.1 receptions per game, but gaining just 53.4 yards per game. This season, Smith was averaging 4.67 receptions for 59.2 yards per game with Goedert in the lineup. He’s averaging 6.5 catches for 102.5 yards per game in two games without him.
That might not be a direct correlation, as other factors like matchups and game script also impact those numbers. But the simple fact is that Smith has a much bigger role in the Eagles’ offense when Goedert doesn’t play, and that has translated to increased production in back-to-back seasons.
That creates some value on Smith this week. He has gone over his receiving yards prop in 4 straight games and has another good matchup this week. Smith is likely to be matched up primarily with 49ers CB Deommodore Lenoir, who is not nearly the same caliber of cover man as his running mate Charvarius Ward.
Over his last 4 games, Lenoir has allowed 17 receptions on 19 targets for 226 yards (11.9 yards per target), according to PFF data. If that trend continues this week, then Smith would only need 5 targets to cash this bet, and he’s had at least 5 targets in all but 1 game this season and in 16 of his 20 games last season.
With his expected volume and a favorable matchup, Smith is well positioned to continue his recent dominance and go over 58.5 receiving yards this week.
D’Andre Swift over 52.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
The 49ers’ biggest vulnerability on either side of the ball is their run defense. While they are 2nd in the league overall in run defense, allowing just 82 yards per game, their advanced metrics tell a different story. They are 20th in rush defense DVOA, 24th in EPA per rush allowed, and 25th in success rate. They have benefited from playing with big leads frequently and have faced the fewest rush attempts in the league at just 20.5 per game.
As we detailed in our matchup preview, one of the keys to this game for the Eagles is establishing the run with D’Andre Swift. In each of their last two games, they have failed to do that early in the game, only to go back to Swift in the second half which has helped spark their two double-digit comebacks against the Chiefs and Bills. We’re betting that they’ve learned from those two games and will have Swift more involved in the game plan early and often this week.
Swift has gained over 50 rushing yards in 8 of his last 10 games and is averaging exactly 70.0 yards per game this season. He should be able to find success against a 49ers’ run defense that has struggled against zone runs, which is the Eagles’ primary running scheme. Over their last five games, San Francisco is allowing the tenth-highest yards per carry (4.53) and the second-highest success rate against zone runs.
The 49ers also could be missing one of their best run defenders in this game in defensive tackle Arik Armstead, who missed the first two practices of the week with a foot injury. If he misses the game, then reserve DTs Javon Kinlaw and Kevin Givens would likely see expanded roles, and both grade out as well below-average run defenders according to PFF.
Even if Armstead plays, the Eagles should have the advantage in the trenches. So long as Swift gets the 14+ carries we’re expecting, he is a very good bet to go over his rushing prop this week.
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