San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks: Expert Same Game Parlay Picks for Thanksgiving Day (11/23/23)
This article recommends a 49ers vs. Seahawks Same Game Parlay featuring a spread pick, Brock Purdy, and George Kittle.
49ers vs. Seahawks Same Game Parlay Picks
Thanksgiving Day in 2023 concludes with an intriguing primetime matchup between NFC West rivals the San Francisco 49ers (7-3) and the Seattle Seahawks (6-4). The 49ers beat the Seahawks three times last season including a 41-23 thumping in the Wild Card playoff round. Both teams are expected to make the playoffs again this season, and both have a lot on the line in this game.
We built our SGP on DraftKings, but we encourage you to always shop around for the best odds before you place any wagers. Let’s get to it.
49ers alternate spread -3 (-212)
After a 3-game losing streak before their bye week, the 49ers have gotten back on track with dominant victories over the Jaguars and Bucs in their last 2 games. Their offense once again looks unstoppable, especially with Deebo Samuel back in the lineup, and their defense remains one of the best in the league.
The 49ers beat the Seahawks three times last season by margins of 20 (week 3), 8 (week 15) and 18 (playoffs). They are even better now with Brock Purdy making a big jump in his 2nd season and Chase Young looking a difference-making trade deadline acquisition.
We like their chances to cover the -6.5 spread this time around, but for the purposes of this Same Game Parlay, we wanted to play it a bit safer than that by going with the alternate spread. This is a division game after all, which often tends to be closer than expected. Winning by a touchdown on the road against a division opponent is a difficult task for any team, no matter how dominant they are.
This would be a good leg to adjust if you wanted to increase the overall parlay odds. We chose this number because we can’t see the 49ers winning by less than a field goal, so the worst case scenario would be a push, and that would lower the payout on our parlay but at least it would not sink us.
It’s also worth noting that this pick assumes Geno Smith will play in this game. The reports have been positive that he will suit up, and that uncertainty is incorporated in the current odds. If he ends up being out, we would absolutely lay the -6.5, though it’s likely the odds will cross the key number of 7 in that scenario.
Brock Purdy over 252.5 passing yards (-115)
Purdy is looking like an MVP candidate in his second NFL season. He is leading the league in passer rating (115.1), QBR (77.0), and completion percentage (70.2%) and he is 6th in passing yards (266.2 per game). If not for his 3-game slump before the 49ers’ bye week, he might be the odds-on favorite right now, but he still has the 5th-best odds at most sportsbooks right now.
This is a good matchup for Purdy. The Seahawks are just 21st in passing defense
and they are 23rd in DVOA against the pass. Purdy has thrown for over 270 passing yards in 4 consecutive games and 6 of his last 8 games. He was just 1 passing yard against Dallas away from being 7 of his last 8 at this prop line of 252.5.
This line is simply too low for Purdy given the matchup and his recent performance. We also like this pick because it has a good chance of hitting regardless of game script. Purdy has put up his numbers despite the 49ers being the second-most run-heavy team in the league (52.2% of plays). Even if the 49ers jump out to a big lead, we still like the chances that Purdy goes over this number.
After the first two legs, the odds on our Same Game Parlay are at +170.
George Kittle over 51.5 receiving yards (-120)
Let’s pair our Purdy passing yards pick with one of his favorite pass catchers. Tight end George Kittle has been dominant over his last 4 games, averaging 6.25 catches for 108 receiving yards. He has surpassed this prop line in 6 of his last 8 games, and he has gone well over this number each time. His lowest receiving yards output in those 6 games was 67 yards.
The Seahawks have struggled to defend tight ends this season. They are allowing 5.30 receptions and 54.2 receiving yards per game, both of which rank in the bottom third of teams in the league. Kittle is averaging 64.8 receiving yards per game overall this season, which means both his average and the Seahawks’ average yards allowed are both over this prop line of 51.5. Kittle has also performed well against the Seahawks in the past. In his 2 games against them last season (he missed one early in the year), he totaled 274 receiving yards.
Of all the 49ers’ pass catchers, Kittle is the one we have the most confidence will produce in this matchup. That makes this the best-correlated bet to pair with the Purdy pick for our Same Game Parlay. This leg brings the odds on our SGP to +315 – not the best odds in the world for a 3-leg parlay, but a nice payout nonetheless with 3 picks about which we feel very good.
If you wanted to add another pick to juice up the odds even more, you could always add a Christian McCaffrey anytime TD, which is about as safe a bet as there has been over the last year. McCaffrey’s record-setting touchdown streak may have ended 2 weeks ago, but he already started a new one last week finding paydirt against the Bucs.
With -205 odds, adding that pick would bring our SGP odds to +430. We prefer to stick with 3 legs, but the McCaffrey TD would be our next pick.
Same Game Parlay Card For 49ers vs. Seahawks
- 49ers alternate spread -3 (-212)
- Brock Purdy over 252.5 passing yards (-115)
- George Kittle over 51.5 receiving yards (-120)
Full SGP odds: +315 ($10 pays out $41.50)
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