San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks NFL Player Props & Picks for Thanksgiving Day (11/23/23)

Get 49ers vs. Seahawks player prop picks & odds for the (11/23/23) matchup

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49ers vs. Seahawks Player Prop Picks

The best matchup on Thanksgiving Day is the prime-time game between the San Francisco 49ers (7-3) and the Seattle Seahawks (6-4). The Seahawks are home underdogs at -7 against the spread in this NFC West divisional showdown. Let’s take a look at the betting odds for player prop bets in this game and pick the best 49ers vs. Seahawks player prop bets for this Week 12 matchup.

George Kittle over 51.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)

George Kittle has been on a tear. Over his last four games he is averaging 6.25 catches (on 7.75 targets) for 108 receiving yards per game. He has at least 67 receiving yards in six of his last eight games and has gone over his receiving yards prop line in all six of those games.

Kittle is averaging 64.8 receiving yards per game overall this season, and has been a bit feast or famine. He has four games with fewer than 30 receiving yards, and the rest of his games have been excellent. So if he has one of his good games, he seems like a lock to gain at least 52 receiving yards. That means that we’re simply betting on him having a good game rather than a bad one, and we feel confident it will be another good game for Kittle.

The Seahawks are in the bottom third of the league in both receptions (5.30) and yards (54.2) per game allowed to opposing tight ends. So they are allowing on average more than Kittle’s prop line, and Kittle on average is gaining more yards than his prop line. That’s a pretty good reason to like the over this week. Seattle has allowed a tight end to go over his receiving yards prop line in four of their last five games.

Kittle has also torched the Seahawks multiple times over the last few seasons. In his last two games played in Seattle, he has 93 and 181 receiving yards. He also tends to shine in prime time, as he averages more catches (5.2) and yards per game (73.3) than he does during the typical afternoon timeslots. He also has more yards per target (11.04) and a better catch percentage (78.1%) than he does in non-primetime games.

The 49ers have plenty of mouths to feed offensively, which is the main hesitation with this pick. But his recent production and favorable matchup make this our favorite player prop bet in this game.

DK Metcalf over 59.5 receiving yards (-115)


We have to start this analysis by pointing out that this pick relies upon the assumption that Geno Smith will play in this game. Early reports are optimistic that he will be ready to go after injuring his elbow against the Rams and temporarily leaving the game, but it bears monitoring. We recommend waiting for confirmation before placing this bet, as we would feel much less confident with Drew Lock under center.

Assuming Smith is good to go, Metcalf should be able to keep up his recent production, even against the excellent 49ers defense. He has 90+ receiving yards in back-to-back games and has 60+ yards in six of his last eight games.

As good as the 49ers’ defense has been, they have just been average against the pass and have consistently allowed opposing WRs to eclipse their receiving yards prop lines. They have allowed 100-yard receiving games by a wide receiver in four of their last five games and have allowed at least one of an opposing team’s starting wide receivers to go over their prop line in seven out of 10 games this season. Overall, San Francisco is 15th in the league against the pass and is allowing the second most receptions and the 11th most yards per game to opposing wide receivers.

In a game in which the Seahawks are expected to be trailing, there should be plenty of passing volume going Metcalf’s direction. He had 10 catches for 136 yards last time these teams played in last year’s NFC Wild Card playoff game. We’re not expecting quite that big a game this time around, but we do expect at least enough to cash this bet.

Zach Charbonnet anytime TD (+165 at FanDuel)

Once again, this pick is contingent on injury updates. It looks like starting RB Kenneth Walker II is going to miss at least this game after exiting last week’s game with an oblique injury. That leaves Charbonnet as the Seahawks’ RB1, and with little behind him in the Seahawks’ backfield, that means a heavy workload for the talented rookie second-round pick.

Charbonnet was already getting more snaps than Walker – he out-snapped him in each of the last three games prior to the injury. Walker was still getting more touches, but Charbonnet was more efficient with his opportunities and now he will have a heavy volume to go along with his efficiency.

It’s not a great matchup for Charbonnet, as the 49ers are allowing the second-fewest rushing yards per game to opposing running backs. However, Charbonnet is a great pass catcher and the 49ers are allowing the seventh-most receptions to running backs. Whether it’s on the ground or through the air, Charbonnet will stay on the field and be involved in the offense regardless of game script. Based on the matchup and expected game script, we would also be interested in Charbonnet’s receptions prop, but that was not available at the time of this writing.

We’re betting on the talent and the expected volume with this anytime TD pick. Charbonnet has yet to find the end zone in his rookie campaign, and we like the +165 odds on that changing in his first career start. Be sure to head over to FanDuel to get the best odds, as Charbonnet’s anytime TD odds at other sportsbooks are closer to +130 as of this writing.

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Noah hails from Philadelphia and is a diehard Philly sports fan. He graduated from Penn where he was a sports writer and editor for the student newspaper and also spent a summer covering the Baltimore Orioles for MLB.com. He has been playing fantasy sports since before live stats were a thing, and he has enjoyed learning the nuances of DFS in recent years. As a current resident of Florida, he is hoping the wave of sports betting legalization will eventually reach his home state.

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