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San Francisco 49ers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Player Prop Picks
Both the San Francisco 49ers and Jacksonville Jaguars are trending in opposite directions after the 49ers started off hot and cooled down with three straight losses while the Jags bounced back from a rough start to their season. Those directions are poised to continue on their path as the Jags are well equipped to take advantage of the 49ers weaknesses and continue to show why they are a true Super Bowl contender.
Christian McCaffrey Over 30.5 Receiving Yards
Even while playing with a muscle tear, Christian McCaffrey is still having no issue with running wild in the open field. He is one of the best dual threat running backs in the league and is in a position to continue to succeed through the air as Brock Purdy’s safety blanket.
What Purdy does have going for him is that the Jags front seven have struggled to bring down the opposing quarterback by ranking a lowly 27th in Adjusted Sack Rate. That keeps plays alive on the 49ers end, giving an uptick in potential opportunities for McCaffrey to haul in a catch and work towards clearing this over. Not only is McCaffrey the direct recipient to dump offs, but he may find himself in more screen sets as well as working the mid field as the Jags front line may be tough to open up gaps against.
Christian McCaffrey Under 67.5 Rushing Yards
Speaking of the Jags front four, generating any sort of rushing production will be difficult to do even with a star running back like McCaffrey in the backfield. The Jags rush defense has been utterly dominant at this point of the season, ranking an impressive first in Def Rush Success Rate, fifth in Def Rush DVOA, and 12th in Def Rush EPA.
Brock Purdy (13) to Christian McCaffery (13)
San Francisco 49ers
— NFL TD Videos (@NFLTDsVideos) October 29, 2023
Their heavy dose of the blitz allows them to plug gaps while crashing down to the line, giving their front four help with their pressure and collapsing the offensive line. While getting past the trenches has only equated to a pressure rate of 14th in the league, the Jags front seven at least holds their ground in the gaps by ranking third in Adjusted Defensive Line Yards.
Those metrics are poised to increase as the Jags front seven get the benefit of taking on a weak interior offensive line. Outside of Trent Williams, the 49ers middle of the line ranks well below average per their position grades. That may lead to a push back in the interior, forcing McCaffrey to bounce to the outside against a linebacking unit crashing on the outside.
Travis Etienne Over 64.5 Rushing Yards
The Jags ground game has been practically non-existent at this point of the season, but their numbers are heavily skewed due to their offensive line being without two key starters due to injury and suspension. They currently rank 19th in Rush DVOA, 25th in Rush Success Rate, and 29th in Rush EPA.
Stopping the run has been a major issue for the 49ers as of late, clocking in at 25th in Def Rush DVOA, 24th in Rush Def Success Rate, and 26th in Def Rush EPA. With a spread indicating a tight contest and the Jags defense being able to get San Francisco’s offense off the field, expect plenty of opportunities for the Jags to turn towards the run for Etienne to clear this mark.
Trevor Lawrence Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Not only should the Jags turn towards Travis Etienne in the mid field, but they should also call his number for when they enter the red zone. Especially with the 49ers fielding a stout coverage unit, ranking 11th in Def Pass DVOA, ninth in Def Pass Success Rate, and sixth in Def Pass EPA.
Red zone success has been a struggle for the Jags at this point of the season, ranking 21st in Off EPA. Should they want to improve in that regard, then taking advantage of the weak 49ers rush defense is the way to go. With a heavier dose of the run comes less pass attempts for Lawrence to clear this, especially with scoring opportunities already coming at a premium.