Philadelphia 76ers Vs. Miami Heat NBA Player Props & Picks (12/25/23)

Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler host Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey for a battle between two Eastern Conference contenders. Our Philadelphia 76ers vs. Miami Heat player props and picks are listed below!

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Philadelphia 76ers vs. Miami Heat Player Prop Picks

Our favorite Philadelphia 76ers vs. Miami Heat player prop picks include Tyrese Maxey to hit four or more three-pointers and Joel Embiid to score 32 or fewer points. See the analysis for each below!

Tyrese Maxey Over 3.5 Threes (+105)

This is an ideal spot to back Tyrese Maxey’s Overs, particularly his points and three-point props. There are several reasons for this, but the first reason is the matchup. Maxey will be defended primarily by Kyle Lowry, who is six feet tall, 37 years old, and a step-and-a-half slower than he was a few years ago.

That shouldn’t be a surprise, though; anybody not named LeBron James experiences an athletic decline in their mid-to-late 30s. Unfortunately, Lowry doesn’t have the speed or lateral quickness to press up on Maxey anymore, as Maxey is one of the fastest straight-line players in the NBA; he will more than likely have to sag off of Maxey a bit just to avoid getting blown by every possession.

There is a reason that the Heat are allowing the third-most three-pointers to opposing point guards this season.

The second reason that Maxey hitting four or more three-pointers (and scoring 26 or more points) is feasible is because Joel Embiid has historically struggled against the Miami Heat.

In 17 regular-season games against Miami, Embiid has averaged just 24 points and 11 rebounds; his point average drops to 19 points per game in the seven playoff games he has played versus Miami. This matchup is not ideal for Embiid, so Maxey must step up and score a ton.

Lastly, Maxey has been lighting it up from deep recently; he has hit four or more three-pointers in four consecutive games. The volume has been solid, too, as he has had double-digit three-point attempts in three of his past four games.

Joel Embiid Under 32.5 Points (-110)

For many of the reasons listed above, Joel Embiid is a candidate to score 32 or fewer points against the Miami Heat. Bam Adebayo is one of the best defenders in the NBA due to his versatility and switchability, but his interior defense is tough, too. As a result, the Miami Heat allow the fewest points to opposing centers of any team in the NBA.

Embiid has historically struggled against the Heat, failing to score 33 or more points in 14 of his 17 regular season games versus Miami and in seven consecutive games. Further, he has never scored 33+ points against Miami in the playoffs. This team consistently causes him problems, and he likely won’t get bailed out by the refs as much in a nationally televised game on Christmas against a team that ranks sixth in fouls per game.

While Embiid has hit the Over on this prop in eight of his past nine games, we still don’t think this is an ideal spot for him.

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