The Utah Jazz (24-25) host the injury-plagued Philadelphia 76ers (29-17) on Thursday night (2/1/24) at 10:00 p.m. EST. Betting odds have the Jazz as the favorites at -4.5 against the spread and -200 on the moneyline, while the over/under is set at 237.5 total points.
This article provides in-depth analysis of this 76ers vs. Jazz matchup, including odds, starting lineups, key matchups, and a prediction that Collin Sexton will have over 25.5 combined points and assists.
76ers vs. Jazz Prediction
The 76ers are in a tough spot tonight. They are riding a season-high four-game losing streak and they are riddled with injuries. MVP frontrunner Joel Embiid has already been ruled out, and they could be missing two other starters in PG Tyrese Maxey and F Nic Batum. Their bench is already thin with injuries to several key rotational players in De’Anthony Melton, Robert Covington, and Marcus Morris Sr.
Those injuries – especially the one to Embiid – are the main reason the Jazz are 4.5-point favorites. For context, the 76ers were 6.5-point favorites when these teams played on January 6 in Philadelphia. Embiid missed that game as well, and the Jazz won 120-109.
But it’s not just as simple as seeing those injuries and laying the points with the Jazz. The 76ers are capable of winning this game outright, even with all their injuries. Just a few nights ago against the reigning NBA champion Denver Nuggets, when they were missing Embiid, Maxey, Melton, Covington and Tobias Harris, they managed to have the game tied with less than 5 minutes to play.
While they ended up losing that game by 6, they showed the ability to compete with the best teams in the league even at far less than full strength. Of course, the next night they lost to a terrible Trailblazers team by 26 points, so it’s very difficult to know what to expect from them right now. While we would certainly lean towards the Jazz here, we prefer to look elsewhere for the best bet in this game.
Instead we’re focusing on Jazz guard Collin Sexton, who has been red-hot recently. Since Jazz coach Will Hardy inserted him into the starting lineup on December 13, Sexton is averaging 21.6 points per game on 50.4% shooting and 41.7% from three. While his scoring has ticked up, his playmaking has not suffered, as he’s also averaging 5.5 assists per game over the same timeframe.
Sexton’s prop line for points+assists tonight is set at 25.5 at BetMGM (-105). He has gone over that number in 18 of his 26 games as a starter (with another game at 25). In that Jan. 6 game against the Sixers, he had 22 points and 10 assists. Sexton loves to attack the rim and shoots nearly 50% of his shots from inside the paint, which should be available to him with Embiid out.
His recent production combined with the favorable matchup against the banged up 76ers make this Sexton player prop the best bet in this game.
76ers vs. Jazz Prediction: Collin Sexton over 25.5 points + assists (-105 at BetMGM)
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76ers vs. Jazz Best Odds
The Jazz are the betting favorites at -4.5 against the spread and -200 on the moneyline. The 76ers’ moneyline odds are at +165. The over/under in this game is set at 237.5.
76ers Starting Lineup
Jazz Starting Lineup
76ers vs. Jazz Injuries
The Jazz have no players on their injury report, but the 76ers could be missing several key players. Superstar center Joel Embiid has already been ruled out, while starting PG Tyrese Maxey and SF Nicolas Batum remain questionable. Starting SG De’Anthony Melton, SF Robert Covington, and PF Marcus Morris Sr. also remain out.
76ers vs. Jazz Key Matchups
Check out the key matchups and mismatches for 76ers vs. Jazz below.
Jazz guards vs. Sixers’ paint defense
The Jazz duo of Jordan Clarkson and Collin Sexton love getting to the rim, and with no Joel Embiid tonight the 76ers have very little in terms of paint defense. Paul Reed can provide some rim protection, but he is nothing like the presence Embiid brings.
In the Jan. 6 game with no Embiid, Clarkson and Sexton both lived in the paint, shooting 18 of their 28 shots inside and going 12-of-18 on those attempts. Clarkson and Sexton are both scoring just under 50% of their points in the paint this season.
This matchup is one of the main reasons we picked a Sexton prop bet as our best bet in our 76ers vs. Jazz prediction.
Battle of the Boards
Another key to this game with no Embiid is the rebounding battle. Led by Lauri Markkanen, John Collins, and Walker Kessler, the Jazz are one of the best rebounding teams in the league. They pull down 46.1 rebounds per 100 possessions (3rd most in the league) and they have the second-best rebounding rate in the league at 52.6%.
The Jazz have a big advantage in this game on the offensive glass. They are the best offensive rebounding team in the league with a league-leading 33.3% offensive rebounding rate and 12.6 ORBs per 100 possessions (3rd best). Kessler, Markkanen, and Collins each grab over 2.0 offensive boards per game.
The 76ers are one of the worst rebounding teams in the league, even with Joel Embiid being 7th with 11.3 per game. They are 20th in total rebounding rate and 26th in defensive rebounding rate. Without Embiid, the Jazz could abuse them on the boards and create numerous extra possessions, which would become a major storyline in this game.