Philadelphia 76ers vs. Dallas Mavericks: Prediction, Starting Lineups, Odds (3/2/23)

Betting odds have the Mavericks as 4-point favorites at home against the Philadelphia 76ers, with an over/under set at 229. Joel Embiid is questionable for tonight’s game, putting doubt into the starting lineups. Despite Embiid’s potential absence, the betting prediction still leans toward the 76ers’ moneyline. Get more on the Sixers vs. Mavericks matchup for tonight’s game.

Philadelphia 76ers vs. Dallas Mavericks Betting Odds

On the moneyline, the Mavericks’ odds opened at -150 at most books with DraftKings again favoring Dallas slightly more than consensus with -200 odds. The Sixers’ moneyline odds opened around +130 (+170 at DraftKings). Those odds have settled in around -175 for the Mavericks and +150 for the Sixers.

The public money against the spread is split practically 50/50 at DraftKings, according to VSiN. The Sixers are getting a slight edge on the moneyline with 60% of the handle on 50% of the bets.

The total for this game opened at 229 and is now at 228. The public lean is fairly strongly towards the over, with 76% of the money on 66% of the bets.

The implied outcome of these odds is the Mavericks winning 116-112.

Philadelphia 76ers vs. Dallas Mavericks Prediction

My pick: Sixers’ moneyline, Under 228

By most measures, the Sixers are a stronger team than Dallas. The reason the Mavericks are favored is that the Sixers are playing on the second night of a back-to-back and there is some uncertainty about Joel Embiid’s health and availability.

Reports have indicated that Embiid missed last night’s game against Miami purely to rest his sore left foot, and not because the injury was aggravated. The general tone of the reports is that the Sixers simply chose to rest Embiid for that game to preserve his availability against Dallas on the second night of a back-to-back.

If Embiid is ruled active for the game, I expect the spread to shift 1-2 points in the Sixers’ favor. Of course it will probably do the opposite if he’s ruled out. Barring unforeseen injury news, it seems like missing last night’s game actually makes it more likely he will play tonight, which means there is value on the Sixers if you can get your bets in before his status is confirmed.

The Sixers have performed well on the second night of a back-to-back this season, going 6-2 against the spread and 6-2 overall in those scenarios. The Mavericks have struggled since their blockbuster trade to acquire Kyrie Irving. They are 3-5 in their eight games with Irving in the lineup including four losses as the favorite (although they also won two as an underdog).

Give me the team playing better basketball right now that is getting better value on the odds. The Sixers +4 is the safer play, but I’m taking the +150 moneyline odds for the Sixers to win outright.

Given the uncertainty about Embiid, I would not blame you if you wanted to avoid betting the game lines. You are still in luck, because my favorite bet in this game is the under.

These teams combined are averaging 217.5 points per game. They are two of the more efficient offenses, per basketball reference. The Mavericks are scoring 116.8 points per 100 possessions (6th in the league) and the Sixers are not far behind at 116.3 (8th). However, these are also two of the five slowest-paced teams in the league, according to basketball analytics website dunksandthrees.com.

Expect many possessions in this game that go late into the shot clock, limiting the total number of possessions in the game. That will lead to a total under 228.

Betting Trends

• The 76ers are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games against teams with a winning home record.
• The Mavericks are 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games and 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.
• The 76ers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games playing on 0 days’ rest.
• The Under is 5-0 in the 76ers’ last five games playing on 0 days’ rest.
• The Under is 4-0 in the 76ers’ last four games and it is also 4-0 in the 76ers’ last four road games.
• The Under is 5-0 in the Mavericks’ last five games vs. teams with a winning record.
• The 76ers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games in Dallas.
• The Under is 5-0 in the last five meetings between the Sixers and Mavericks.

Key Matchups

The saying goes that the NBA is a make-or-miss league. For the Sixers and Mavericks, shooting from the three-point line and the foul line will be big factors in this game. Which way does that swing this matchup?

Mavericks’ Three-Point Shooting

The Mavericks rely heavily on the three ball. They shoot more threes as a percentage of their total field goal attempts than any other team in the league (48.7% according to dunksandthrees.com). They make 15.3 threes per game (3rd) on 36.7% shooting (10th).

Luka Doncic and Tim Hardaway Jr. are the Mavericks’ top three-point shooters. They are each in the top 15 in three-point attempts per game and they are shooting 34.9% and 36.4% from three, respectively.

The Sixers are one of the best teams in the league at defending the three-point line. They are allowing just 11.2 made three-pointers per game (2nd) and a 34.4% three-point percentage (3rd). However, they can be vulnerable to closing out too hard and over-rotating to defend the three-point line, which can lead to easy buckets in the paint.

It will be interesting to see whether Mavericks stick to their three-point-heavy offense or take advantage of the Sixers’ aggressiveness. Either way, this will be an important element of this game that will be a big factor in not only the final outcome but also the total scoring output.

Free Throw Shooting

These are two of the better teams in the league from the charity stripe. They are both in the top 10 in free throws made per game, with the Sixers leading the league in that category as well as in free throw shooting percentage.

Joel Embiid and James Harden are the biggest reasons for the Sixers’ team success from the line. Embiid leads the league with 10.1 free throws made per game while Harden is 12th with 5.7. Among players in the top 20 in free throw attempts per game, Embiid and Harden are sixth and eighth, respectively, in free throw shooting percentage.

The Mavericks are excellent at getting to the line, 3rd in the league at 26 attempts per game. However, they are shooting just 74.8% from the line this season, 26th in the league. Luka Doncic drives most of those numbers, as he is 3rd in the league with 11 free throw attempts per game but shoots just 73.1% (outside the top 100).

Those three players are the most likely players to have the ball in their hands late in the game. If this is a tight game late in the 4th quarter, free throw shooting could be a deciding factor, and the Sixers have the edge in that department.

Philadelphia 76ers Starting Lineups

PG: James Harden
SG: De’Anthony Melton
SF: Tobias Harris
PF: P.J. Tucker
C: Joel Embiid (Q)

Dallas Mavericks Starting Lineups

PG: Luka Doncic
SG: Kyrie Irving
SF: Reggie Bullock
PF: Justin Holiday
C: Dwight Powell

Key Injuries

Philadelphia 76ers Injuries: C Joel Embiid (Q – foot), C Dewayne Dedmon (Out – hip)

Dallas Mavericks Injuries: PF Davis Bertans (Out – calf)