A.J. Green Fantasy Football Outlook & Value 2019

aj green There are some concerns for A.J. Green heading into 2019, as he turns 31 in the summer. While Green played all 16 games in 2017, he played 19 games combined in 2016 and 2018. Green’s healthy 2017 finish was WR7, but there are younger wideouts that have emerged as better fantasy options. There is a large concern for his health, and also his overall upside now over 30 years old. Green is slipping ADP and projected numbers and once a WR1 is now moving closer to being a WR2. The name value might still hold for 2019, but there are going to be other options.

2018 Fantasy Recap

Tier FPTS 2018 Rating GP SNPS/G TGT REC TGT/G YDS 100+ YDS YDS/REC TD Yahoo PTS/G
1 103.4 92 9 50.8 77 46 8.6 694 2 15.1 6 14

It was another injury plagued year for the Bengals, which included A.J. Green. He played just nine games, and in those posted a 46-694-6 line. He was headed for an excellent year. This is now the second time in the last three years Green has gone down with a big injury. He played ten games in 2016, but then returned in 2017 to play all 16 games. When healthy he averaged 15.1 yards per reception, and was looking to potentially hit a career high in touchdowns. Green, when healthy was a strong fantasy wideout, but health is going to be the big question mark over the next few seasons as he is over the age of 30.

2019 Fantasy Outlook

Position Ranking ADP Auction Value Bye Week Receptions Receiving Yards Touchdowns
WR12 3.05 $24 9 75.5 1,078.8 8.7

A.J. Green is flirting with the WR1 and WR2 line just solely on health, and if healthy we project him for over 1,000 yards and around eight touchdowns. There is room for more if he comes back and plays 16 games as his usual self. I still believe Green has WR1 upside in him and he will likely be there past the second round. The targets will be there and his 15.1 yards per reception last season was among some of the top wideouts. Of course this came over the nine games instead of a full 16.

I am not a fan of projecting injuries, but there is some risk here. He was on pace for a top ten WR finish barring the injury last season, and has that potential again. The plus is that the risk is a bit lower given his ADP is now slipping due to his age and the durability issues in two of the last three seasons.


Draft & Auction Value

A.J. Green currently has an ADP behind T.Y Hilton and Adam Thielen who have been excellent the last few seasons. This just shows how the public views Green’s 2019 potential. He was once someone we would take late first early second, and those days do not seem to be coming back. Green is someone to get some shares of, as he can quietly go about his business and deliver a WR1 season if healthy. He is a bargain, and I want some shares. Green is also going to be $10 cheaper than some of the wideouts ahead of him. There is some nice savings here.

  
Jason Guilbault has been writing and podcasting in the fantasy sports world for over five years. You can find his work at Daily Fantasy Cafe. He is an avid Tottenham fan, and follows the Boston sports teams. When he isn’t diving into stats, he is enjoying the outdoors or down at the local brewery.

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