AAC Odds, Predictions, Betting Preview 2022 College Football

The AAC is coming off a historic season, being the first Group of Five school to put a team into the College Football Playoff.

Now, can the conference repeat that feat?

I’m leaning towards no. However, that doesn’t mean there isn’t intrigue surrounding this conference and value to be found.

Let’s dive into the American Athletic Conference betting odds and see if there are any American Athletic Conference futures bets we can make this season.

American Athletic Conference Betting Preview & Odds

General thoughts on the conference can quickly summarize favorites, values, and teams you don’t like in a paragraph or two.

The AAC is a three-horse race. Two of Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF will be competing for the AAC Title this season granted everything goes according to plan.

Dana Holgerson has the better team, but Luke Fickell isn’t going to give up the crown so easily. Gus Malzahn is also storming the gates looking for that G5 College Football Playoff spot.

But there’s no reason to ignore the rest of the conference. East Carolina, Memphis, and SMU have put together fine teams this season, while Tulsa and Tulane could be frisky in conference matchups. Not to mention Navy’s read-option offense which melts opposing defenses.

Let’s break down the conference team by team in order of my power rankings.

Houston Cougars Betting Odds

• Odds To Win National Championship:
• Odds To Win Conference:
• Regular Season Win Total:

You might be confused. How can the team that just made the College Football Playoff not be the top-rated team in their Group of Five conference?

Well, Houston returns its quarterback, offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator, and head coach. Of course, Dana Holgerson is back, but don’t take that for granted considering Holgerson is one of the top minds in the game.

Specifically on defense. The defense did lose five starters, but it didn’t lose Sack Avenue, with D’Anthony Jones and Derek Parish returning. Plus, the entire secondary is upperclassmen. Holgerson’s defense will shut down the AAC.

Offensively, Houston returns Clayton Tune and his best playmaker in WR Tank Dell. This offense will be just as explosive as last year, if not more explosive. Dell was dominant down the stretch and could build on that momentum into this year.

Let’s also look at the schedule. Houston starts the season with UTSA, Texas Tech, Kansas, Rice, and Tulane. They have a tough game against Memphis before a Bye week, and then go Navy, USF, SMU, Temple, East Carolina, and Tulsa to end the year.

This is a formula for an 11-1 season.

It’s tough to fade the team that’s coming off the best G5 season ever, but Holgerson’s group is experienced and ready to make the next step. I’m betting the Cougars to win the AAC title game at +250 (FanDuel).

Possible Bets:

• Houston to win AAC Title (+250 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

Cincinnati Bearcats Betting Odds

• Odds To Win National Championship: (Editor Odds)
• Odds To Win Conference: (Editor Odds)
• Regular Season Win Total: (Editor Odds)

The Bearcats will be good. But here’s why Houston will be better.

Cincinnati loses their QB Desmond Ridder, their top WR Alec Pierce, and their offensive MVP Jerome Ford. Defensively, they lose the nation’s top CB duo in Sauce Gardner and Coby Bryant, alongside DE Myjai Sanders.

Sure, Cinci returns 13 starters alongside Luke Fickell, who is easily the best G5 coach in the country. But the amount of talent lost from last year is hard to overcome.

Cinci has Arkansas (road) and Indiana (home) in their non-conference schedule to make things rougher.

The Bearcats will be favored in 10 or 11 games, but I have no interest in getting involved with this team. Plus, the Bearcats may be overvalued in the early season just based on “respect” after Fickell led his team to a College Football Playoff appearance. Being a favorite is a dangerous spot to be in for this team.

I will pass on any Cincinnati bets and hope Holgerson’s squad takes the crown.

Possible Bets:

• None

UFC Knights Betting Odds

• Odds To Win National Championship:
• Odds To Win Conference:
• Regular Season Win Total:

Here’s something interesting: FanDuel currently lists UCF as the favorite to win the AAC this season.

Let’s break down how that could happen.

For starters, UCF won this title in both 2017 and 2018 while finishing in the top 15 of the AP Poll both seasons. So, it’s not like UCF hasn’t been here before.

Gus Malzahn is a good head coach, and he returns his top RB and top WR alongside 8 other returning offensive starters. That’s 17 returning starters for a team that won nine games last year. Plus, Malzahn added an athletic QB in John Rhys Plumlee from Ole Miss.

On top of that, the Knights finished 9-4 last season despite everything going wrong. They lost on the last play of the game against Louisville and then dropped a four-point loss to Navy in Mikey Keene’s first-ever start. That doesn’t even account for all the other random injuries that popped up this season.

Defensively, Malzahn returns eight starters and nine of the top 12 tacklers. He’s also in his second year as the head coach of the Knights and there should be some kind of marked improvement considering that.

But the biggest reason why UCF could take down the AAC is the schedule. The Knights avoid Houston and get Cincinnati at home. If UCF could hold on to home games against Louisville and the Bearcats, this could be a 12-0 team. And a reminder that UCF is 30-2 SU and 17-15 ATS at the Bounce House over the last five seasons.

So, in conclusion, the Knights have a road to a monster regular season behind a very experienced roster. I don’t believe they will upset either Cincinnati or Houston for the AAC title, but I will be betting on their win total.

I’ll take the over 8.5 at DraftKings because it’s listed at -130 while FanDuel has the same line listed at -170. There’s sharp money hitting the over, the Knights have a favorable schedule, and I’m willing to bet they pick up nine wins this season after doing so last year.

Potential Bets:

• UCF over 8.5 wins (-130 at DraftKings)

SMU Mustangs Betting Odds

• Odds To Win National Championship:
• Odds To Win Conference:
• Regular Season Win Total:

We love Tanner Mordecai. He’s a guy that tossed for over 3600 yards with a 39:12 TD-to-INT ratio while finishing in the top-25 of PFF’s quarterback rankings.

And that’s the upside with this SMU squad. This team could be elite offensively while just being regular bad defensively. They do have 10 defensive starters that will be seniors, so there could be some mitigation there.

SMU was the No. 1 program in the G5 in terms of transfer production. The Mustangs picked up 11 transfers from the Power-5 level. The biggest grab among the bunch is Camar Wheaton from Alabama, a five-star RB recruit with unreal speed and agility that could shake up the deck in the AAC this season.

The key for the Mustangs is, unfortunately, luck. They need to be on the plus side of the turnover differential and need to be disruptive enough to win some shootouts. If they could out-shoot Maryland on the road and TCU at home in Weeks 3 and 4, the sky is the limit for this program.

But this squad is a highly volatile one. Anything can happen with Mordecai’s Mustangs this season. That’s why I’m just going to pass on any SMU markets for the moment.

Possible Bets:

• None

ECU Pirates Betting Odds

• Odds To Win National Championship:
• Odds To Win Conference:
• Regular Season Win Total:

The Pirates took three losses by a combined 14 points last season, which does indicate some potential positive regression. The Pirates also return 15 starters from last season and Mike Houston enters his fourth year running the program.

The good news is that Houston claims this is the best offensive line he’s had with the Pirates so far. That’s massive for QB Holton Ahlers who is entering his fourth year with the program.

But how far can that take the Pirates?

Upon looking at the schedule, I see at least four coin flips alongside four gimme wins and four gimme losses. That means absolutely nothing. There is zero value to be found in this team and they will go through the motions as they do every year. Although they are 18-15 ATS since coach Houston took over.

Possible Bets:

• None

Memphis Tigers Betting Odds

• Odds To Win National Championship:
• Odds To Win Conference:
• Regular Season Win Total:

Anything is possible with Memphis!

The Tigers have an improved QB room and should have an improved rush attack, but the WR room is going to take a step back. The defense returns six starters but loses six of the top-10 tacklers from last season – I think the offensive and defensive changes will be a wash.

Looking at the schedule, I see at least five coin-flip games. What are we supposed to make of that?

I count only four gimme wins for the Tigers in 2022, so I am leaning towards their under 7.5 win total (-140 at DraftKings). I just wish the juice wasn’t so heavy towards the under.

Possible Bets:

• Memphis under 7.5 wins (-140 at DraftKings)

Tulane Green Wave Betting Odds

• Odds To Win National Championship:
• Odds To Win Conference:
• Regular Season Win Total:

If you’re looking for a team to make a big jump in the AAC this season, it’s Tulane.

The Green Wave return a whopping 18 starters from last season, nine on offense and nine on defense. Pretty much all of the playmakers on both sides of the ball are coming back, including QB Michael Pratt, RB Tyjae Spears, and WRs Phat Watts and Duece Watts. They also picked up an underrated offensive coordinator in Jim Svoboda.

Moreover, five of Tulane’s 10 losses came by less than one possession in 2021. Regression could be on the horizon.

Tulane’s schedule is pretty straightforward, although I project a ton of coin-flip games. I see four gimme wins in the schedule and three gimme losses, but I’m willing to test my luck and hope the positive regression comes for Tulane and cashes a win total.

I’ll be on Tulane over 6 wins this season.

Possible Bets:

• Tulane over 6 wins (-130 at DraftKings)

Tulsa Golden Hurricanes Betting Odds

• Odds To Win National Championship:
• Odds To Win Conference:
• Regular Season Win Total:

Tulsa brings back their QB Davis Brin and WR Keylon Stokes, but they return just 12 starters overall and lost all six All-Conference players. Their schedule isn’t as tough as last year when they played nine bowl games, and they avoid UCF and East Carolina and have zero top-10 teams on the schedule.

It’s a mixed bag. There’s plenty of coaching continuity with Philip Montgomery in his eighth year (and he just signed an extension), but the roster is very inexperienced.

The rules for Tulsa are simple. Back them as underdogs and fade them as favorites. Montgomery is 29-16 ATS as an underdog, he has covered in all eight opportunities over the last two seasons, and he is 13-2 ATS in that spot since 2019. But Montgomery’s Golden Hurricanes are just 15-18-1 ATS as a favorite and just 9-14-1 ATS as a home favorite.

Right off the bat, Tulsa will host Northern Illinois and Jacksonville State as home favorites, two prime fade spots.

A home underdog spot against Cincinnati in Week 5 is prime, especially with Cinci coming off a game against Indiana. I’d also look their way in Week 4 on the road against Ole Miss.

Down the stretch, I’d look to back Tulsa in Week 9 at SMU and Week 13 at Houston. I’d also fade them at home against Tulane and South Florida.

There are plenty of spots to just bet the trends with Tulsa.

Possible Bets:

• Northern Illinois ATS vs Tulsa in Week 2
• Jacksonville State ATS vs Tulsa in Week 3
• Tulsa ATS vs Ole Miss in Week 4
• Tulsa ATS vs Cincinnati in Week 5
• Tulsa ATS vs SMU in Week 9
• Tulane ATS vs Tulsa in Week 10
• South Florida ATS vs Tulsa in Week 12
• Tulane ATS vs Houston in Week 13

South Florida Bulls Betting Odds

• Odds To Win National Championship:
• Odds To Win Conference:
• Regular Season Win Total:

South Florida returns 19 starters – 10 on offense and nine on defense – with a third-year head coach. This is likely the second most experienced team in the They bring in a high-impact transfer at QB in Baylor’s Gerry Bohanon, who started 12 games for the Bears last year on the way to the Big 12 title game. There are some explosive skill players, there’s a veteran offensive line, and an experienced defense moving to a 4-2-5.

This team could be ready to move up in a fairly wide-open conference.

However, the schedule is a nightmare. Non-conference games against BYU, Florida, and Louisville combined with playing each of the top-four teams in the AAC. I’m projecting they should be a dog in at least eight games this season. But it is worth mentioning South Florida went 4-0 ATS as a home dog last season. Three spots you could look to this season: Week 1 vs BYU, Week 5 vs East Carolina, and Week 13 vs Central Florida.

This team won two games last season. It’s hard to see a massive bump up the standings, but the Bulls should double their win total given the improvements. They’ll flirt with a bowl but I’ll pass on a win total.

Possible Bets:

• South Florida ATS vs BYU in Week 1
• South Florida ATS vs East Carolina in Week 5
• South Florida ATS vs UCF in Week 13

Navy Midshipmen Betting Odds

• Odds To Win National Championship:
• Odds To Win Conference:
• Regular Season Win Total:

Navy runs the triple-option. They piled up rushing yards last season, but look under the hood and you’ll find some troubling metrics. Specifically, Navy finished 115th in the nation in Standard Downs Success Rate and 107th in Rushing Plays Success Rate. For a team that relies on consistent three-to-five yard gains, that’s a bad look.

For what it’s worth, Navy was frisky last season. They finished 8-4 ATS and took down Army 17-13 as seven-point dogs in the yearly end-of-season Army-Navy game.

Looking forward, Navy’s offense will probably be the best it’s been in three years, but that isn’t very telling. The defense will be a typical Navy D, although they did lose LB Diego Fagot. Ken Niumatalolo always exceeds expectations but this team will be right on the edge of bowl eligibility.

I’d look for random upset opportunities out of Navy, maybe against Houston in Week 8 or Notre Dame in Week 11, but otherwise, I’ll pass on the Midshipmen.

Possible Bets:

• None

Temple Owls Betting Odds

• Odds To Win National Championship:
• Odds To Win Conference:
• Regular Season Win Total:

Temple had just a disastrous season last year filled with injuries and pathetic conference performances. They finished 3-9 overall, 1-7 in the conference, and went a whopping 2-10 ATS.

They return 14 starters but made another head coaching change, Stan Drayton, which marks the sixth different HC in seven years.

There’s not much to talk about with this team. It’s a clear rebuilding year and it should be for the next few years given Drayton pans out. If QB D’Wan Mathis could take a clear step forward, there’s a chance Temple pulls off an upset or two. But I wouldn’t bank on any expectations from this team.

The win total sits at 2.5 but is rather juiced to the over. I’ll just pass on that.

Potential Bets:

• None

American Athletic Conference Predictions

To recap my favorite pre-season bets from the SEC, let’s look at the bets I’ll be making and the bets I’m leaning towards.

Bet Now:

• Houston to win AAC Title (+250 at FanDuel sportsbook)
• UCF over 8.5 wins (-130 at DraftKings)

Lean:

• Memphis under 7.5 wins (-140 at DraftKings)
• Tulane over 6 wins (-130 at DraftKings)

Spots to Look For:

• South Florida ATS vs BYU in Week 1
• Northern Illinois ATS vs Tulsa in Week 2
• Jacksonville State ATS vs Tulsa in Week 3
• Tulsa ATS vs Ole Miss in Week 4
• Tulsa ATS vs Cincinnati in Week 5
• South Florida ATS vs East Carolina in Week 5
• Tulsa ATS vs SMU in Week 9
• Tulane ATS vs Tulsa in Week 10
• South Florida ATS vs Tulsa in Week 12
• South Florida TS vs UCF in Week 13
• Tulane ATS vs Houston in Week 13