Akron vs UCLA Odds, Picks, and Predictions (3/17/22)
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The 13th seed Akron Zips (24-9) take on the 4th seed UCLA Bruins (25-7) in the East region for the Round of 64. Akron beat Kent State 75-55 to win the Mid-American Conference and advance to the tournament. They lost to Ohio St by one point early in the season, but they didn’t get much experience playing elite teams outside of that game. KenPom ranks them 132 in Adjusted Efficiency Margin, which is a low ranking for a team seeded 13th. The Zips last made the tournament in 2013, where they lost in the first round to Virginia.
UCLA lost to Arizona in the PAC-12 tournament, but they still clinched a high seed because of their excellent season. During the season, they beat teams such as Villanova, Marquette, Arizona, and USC. The Bruins know what it takes to beat the top teams and make a deep run. KenPom ranks them 8th in Adjusted Efficiency Margin, a great number for a 4th seed. As an 11th seed last year, they made the Final Four before losing to Gonzaga. UCLA will look to avenge their loss and finish the job this year.
Akron vs UCLA Betting Odds
Akron Betting Odds
Akron is led by 6’8” Ali Ali (14.2 PPG) and 6’7” Enrique Freeman (13.2 PPG, 10.8 RPG). Ali is a lethal outside shooter (41.2 3PT%) who was one of the most efficient catch and shoot players in the country. He rarely takes mid range shots; he either takes the three or drives to the basket. At 6’8”, Ali is a dangerous offensive weapon who can shoot over opponents. Freeman is a bulldozer in the paint who rarely ventures outside of that area on offense. He loves to post up defenders and crash the offensive boards for second chance points. The detriment to his game is that Freeman relies entirely on guards to get him the ball. If the Akron ball handlers struggle to find open passing lanes, Freeman’s value sharply declines.
Their best shooter outside of Ali is 6’1” Xavier Castaneda. He is attempting 5.9 threes per game and hitting them at a 37.6% clip. However, his production comes in a different manner from Ali’s. Castaneda excels off the dribble and uses the pick and roll to create breathing space for a quick jumper. His tight handles allow him to shake defenders and hit midrange shots with ease. He is a poor perimeter defender, so the Zips should look to hide him on defense.
UCLA Betting Odds
They were so close last year, and virtually their entire core is back. Johnny Juzang paces the Bruins in scoring at 16 PPG on a 43.5/36.2/82.2 shooting split. Even though Juzang is not the main ball handler, he can score off the dribble and create instant offense. He will be the leader for UCLA and their success or failure likely stems from his production. Tyger Campbell runs the offense for the Bruins and handles playmaking duties. He’s averaging 11.5 PPG and 4.2 APG on a great 43.3/41.2/82.1 shooting split. When asked to score for himself, Campbell has been deadly both on and off-ball. If Juzang handles the ball for stretches, Campbell can use his lethal shot to stretch the floor.
Jaime Jaquez is the interior presence who posts up and attacks the basket. UCLA uses him to set screens at the top of the key, but he doesn’t have the range to pick and pop. On defense, he is solid around the basket; however, he can be exploited outside the paint. Freeman is a non-shooter for Akron, so Jaquez will not have to worry about this deficiency. A player to watch for UCLA is reserve David Singleton. He only averages 17.4 MPG and 5.1 PPG, but he is shooting 46.3 3PT% on 2.6 attempts per game. Singleton can bury threes from a few steps outside the three point line, and this extended range will completely open up the court. He won’t light teams up for 20 points, but he can provide timely threes that sway momentum though.
Akron vs UCLA Picks & Prediction
I like UCLA to win this one without too much of a struggle. Akron has some dangerous weapons on their roster and Ali could get hot from deep. However, UCLA has the talent edge and a considerable experience edge, so it will be tough for Akron to pull off the upset. Look for Juzang to be the star of the game here with 18+ points. The spread is currently at -13.5 UCLA, which is a well-set line. I am leaning towards UCLA to cover here even though it’s a large spread. The only thing that worries me is Akron’s offensive success in the paint. UCLA has a good paint defense, but they are not elite in that area.
March Madness Bracket
