Alabama vs. Georgia: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (12/4/21)

Alabama vs. Georgia Betting Odds

The highly anticipated SEC championship game is here. The Crimson Tide and the Bulldogs will finally play this season, following a massive season from both squads.

However, despite its 7-1 conference record and 11-1 record overall, people are rather disappointed with Alabama’s season. When you’re Nick Saban, a loss to Texas A&M and a close comeback win over Auburn isn’t good enough.

Georgia, meanwhile, has steamrolled every team it has played. In 12 games, Georgia has scored 488 points while allowing just 83, for a whopping +405-point differential.

However, it’s always scary to play Bama, and Kirby Smart will not take this game lightly.

Alabama Crimson Tide Odds

Alabama has an explosive offense led by one of the best quarterbacks in college football. Bryce Young is PFF’s second highest-graded quarterback, having tossed for 4000 yards and 40 touchdowns to just four interceptions.

However, he’s had some help. John Metchie and Jameson Williams have combined for 150 receptions and 20 touchdowns, averaging almost 15 yards per reception between them.

Their explosiveness combined with Young’s arm has resulted in Alabama ranking top-six in Big Play percentage. On passes 20+ yards downfield, Young has made 24 Big Time Throws to just three Turnover Worthy Plays.

Alabama’s aerial attack hasn’t been the problem, but rather their uncharacteristically inefficient rush game. The Crimson Tide rank outside the top 70 in Rush Success Rate and are averaging just four yards per rush.

Those issues stem directly from the offensive line. This combination has been awful on all accounts, ranking outside the top 70 in Line Yards and Havoc allowed. Moreover, the Crimson Tide are 111th in tackles for loss and Young has been sacked at the second-highest rate in the nation on Passing Downs.

Going up against Georgia’s stacked defensive line, I smell trouble in the trenches for Saban.

Defensively, the opposite has been the issue. Alabama is third in defensive Line Yards and seventh in defensive Rush Success Rate, dominating opponents at the point of attack upfront.

But the secondary has been average, at best. The Crimson Tide rank between 40 and 50 in Pass Rush, defensive Pass Success Rate, and Big Play percentage allowed.

Moreover, when opponents cross the 40-yard line, Alabama allows them to score at the 41st highest rate.

Overall, there are more than a few ways to beat this Crimson Tide team. Georgia is in a very good position to do all of them.

Georgia Bulldogs Odds

Georgia’s defense is historically good.

Somehow, the Bulldogs are allowing less than a touchdown per game. At 6.9 points per game allowed, the Bulldogs are lightyears ahead of any other team.

The Bulldogs rank top 10 in every meaningful defensive statistic, including first in:

  • Pass Success Rate
  • Big Play percentage
  • Finishing Drives
  • PFF’s tackling grades
  • PFF’s coverage grades

Defensively, the Bulldogs give a true team effort week-in and week-out, and there’s not a single weakness at any position.

Offensively, the Bulldogs are slightly weaker. But the emergence of Stenson Bennett has infinitely lifted the ceiling of the unit.

He’s greatly limited his mistakes and has allowed the offensive line to carry him. The Bulldogs offensive line ranks 20th in Line Yards, ninth in Pass Blocking, and sixth in preventing Havoc. Bennett is well protected, and he just needs to perform from a clean pocket. Bennet’s been doing that.

However, he also has been solid with his legs. He’s added 300 yards rushing this season with almost half that on designed runs.

Prediction and Pick 

My pick: Georgia -6 (-110 at Fox Bet) 

With Alabama’s weaknesses in the trenches, the Crimson Tide, unfortunately, has no chance in this game. They’ll attempt to have Young save the day with explosive passing plays, but Georgia will easily create pressure with only four rushers.

Metchie and Williams can be covered man-to-man anyway, considering Georgia’s depth at cornerback. But the Bulldogs will be able to double-cover them on early and late downs, and Young probably won’t have time to let the routes develop enough anyway.

Georgia could have a tough time scoring, but the Bulldogs will only have to get to 21 to put this game away.

Give me the Bulldogs at a touchdown or less.

Tanner joined Lineups to cover everything, but he has vast experience in, and unlimited passion for, Major League Baseball and NCAA Basketball. He’s a McGill University grad and former (Canadian) Division-I alpine ski racer who now spends his time drinking beer and betting home underdogs. Patrick Mahomes is a poor man’s Tom Brady.

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