Alabama vs. Gonzaga: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (12/4/21)

Alabama vs. Gonzaga Betting Odds

While it’s probably tough for the Bulldog players, it’s amazing for us college basketball fans.

This game might be the most entertaining of all Gonzaga’s non-conference matchups. Alabama is a fast-paced, high-flying, run-and-gun basketball team, and Nate Oats will pull out all the stops to beat Gonzaga

Meanwhile, Mark Few will just keep rolling along. Gonzaga will play fast and through the post with Timme, and it’ll make shots at an uber-efficient rate.

But will it be enough to cover a rather large spread?

Alabama Crimson Tide Odds

If you don’t watch Alabama basketball, you’ll quickly learn one thing: Coach Oats is an analytics nerd.

Nobody has a higher rim-and-3 rate than Alabama, wherein it takes over 93% of its shots from either the rim or beyond the arc.

Alabama also runs at an obscene pace, working at the 21st fastest tempo in the nation. So, Alabama runs the floor, tries to go straight to the bucket, or kicks it out for a spot-up shot.

Oats’ system has worked. Since Nate took over in Tuscaloosa, Alabama has gone 48-23 straight up with a Sweet Sixteen appearance. Alabama is a force to be reckoned with.

But not just because the Crimson Tide takes efficient shots. Alabama is also a dominant defensive force, having finished third in defensive efficiency last season.

While the Crimson Tide has yet to repeat that defensive success this season, the perimeter defense has been sharp. Alabama is 16th in 3-point defense (25.3%) and 31st in spot-up points per possession allowed (.718).

With Herbert Jones gone, the interior defense could become an issue. But I’m expecting that Alabama will regress to its normal interior defense.

Either way, look for Alabama to have another dominant season in the SEC.

Gonzaga Bulldogs Odds

For the first time in almost two years, Gonzaga is struggling.

A loss to Duke was followed by a pathetic outing against Tarleton State. Tarleton State, which is 186th in KenPom’s ratings, was tied with Gonzaga after 35 minutes of play. That’s worrisome.

However, we now know that Duke is spectacular, and Tarleton State is a uniquely prepared basketball team. So, perhaps those performances weren’t so bad.

From what I can tell, Few and co. don’t think about their past performances too much. Gonzaga won’t change its style of play based on a few rough performances.

The Zags will continue to play extremely fast offensively, utilizing motion, ball-screens, and cuts while out-running their opponents.

Moreover, Gonzaga will continue to make interior shots at a ridiculously high rate. The Bulldogs paced the nation in 2-point shooting last season (63.9%) and currently pace the nation in that stat this season (66.6%).

Drew Timme seemed to struggle in the game against Duke, but he still dropped 17 on 7-for-13 shooting. He’s still the most dangerous post threat on the most efficient interior offense in the nation.

Timme is a good analogy for Gonzaga at large. The Bulldogs looked lost against Duke, but it still scored 81 points and kept the game close for 40 minutes. And that was after playing two top-five teams in the nine days beforehand.

Even when the Bulldogs struggle, they’re still almost impossible to beat.

Prediction and Pick

It’s a contrarian play, but it’s impossible to think this game won’t fly over any total set.

Both these teams rank inside the top 15 nationally in average length of possession, and both rank inside the top 50 in percentage of shots taken in transition. The pace of this game is going to be quicker than any game this season, and points will be scored in bunches.

Plus, both teams rank inside the top 10 nationally in 2-point percentage. So, there will be very few missed shots when the ball is worked inside the arc.

Plus, we know Alabama is going to shoot from distance, and the Crimson Tide’s made 3-pointers will only benefit the final score. Meanwhile, Alabama’s perimeter defense has struggled, and Gonzaga has no shortage of shot-makers.

I wouldn’t be surprised if both teams hit 90+ in this game.