Alabama vs LSU: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (3/5/22)
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Alabama vs LSU Betting Odds
Alabama is the most confusing team in college hoops. The Crimson Tide’s recent loss to Texas A&M makes the resume even more confusing.
Meanwhile, LSU most recently lost a heartbreaker to Arkansas. The Tigers were in the lead for most of the game but couldn’t close against JD Notae and co.
In terms of motivation, both sides have reason to play hard. The top four seeds in the SEC tournament have already been claimed, and we already know the two play-in matchups. The middle six teams, which includes both Alabama and LSU, are all either 9-8 or 8-9 in conference play.
Therefore, the entire middle part of the SEC tournament bracket will be decided by Saturday’s results – including this game.
So, who has the edge?
Alabama Crimson Tide Odds
Alabama now has wins over:
- Gonzaga (KenPom #1)
- Houston (KenPom #6)
- Baylor (KenPom #2)
- Arkansas (KenPom #19)
Paired with losses to:
- Iona (KenPom #92)
- Missouri (KenPom #144)
- Georgia (KenPom #206)
You can expect a good amount of variance from Alabama, who shoot more 3s than just 12 D-I teams. But this high level of variance is flabbergasting.
The defensive metrics have been rough, but I’d look for some regression moving forward. Conference-only opponents are shooting 35% from deep against the Tide but ShotQuality projects that numbers should be closer to 32%.
LSU will not shoot much from 3, however, so the Alabama interior defense will have to step up. I think the Crimson has some matchup advantages in that area.
The backcourt continues to carry the torch for the Tide. The four-guard rotation of Jaden Shackelford, Jahvon Quinerly, Keon Ellis, and JD Davison combine to average 51.6 points per game, and all four have an ORtg above 100.
LSU Tigers Odds
The Tigers could’ve really used that win over Arkansas because it’s been a rough second-half for LSU basketball.
LSU is 5-9 since starting 15-1. The Tigers have dropped to 8-9 in conference play after a 3-1 start. It hasn’t been pretty.
The Tigers were due for a lot of negative shooting regression, as LSU allows a ton of 3-point shots and opponents were hitting those shots at about 24% through the first half of the season. That was unsustainable, and that number has jumped to the north of 30% in conference play.
That’s resulted in more losses – obviously.
LSU is still a great defensive team. The Tigers are lengthy, active, and opportunistic on that end, forcing turnovers and tough mid-range shots at high rates.
The offense has taken a huge step back. Will Wade’s interior-based offense runs through wings Darius Days and Tari Eason, who will downhill drive on opponents all day. However, the Tigers have dropped to 10th in the conference in offensive efficiency and 14th in offensive turnover rate.
All-in-all, the Tigers are now sub-100 in offensive efficiency.
Alabama vs LSU Prediction and Pick
Feels like a good spot to back the Tide here. Especially because Alabama wins when you least expect it.
Coming off a brutal, dumb loss to TAMU, Alabama should be able to exploit an LSU defense that’s overrated in the projections.
Meanwhile, LSU’s interior offense will struggle to find success against an Alabama defense that’s been stifling inside the arc. The Tide are top-50 nationally in near-proximity rate on defense and fifth in the SEC in 2-point defense.
I’ll back the underdog with the points in Death Valley on Saturday.
