Andrew Luck Fantasy Football Outlook & Value 2019

Andrew Luck has had a roller coaster of a career so far, entering the league as one of the future stars to potentially never playing football again with the injury. Bouncing back in 2018 puts Luck’s fantasy stock back as one of the top five quarterbacks in the game. It also puts the Indianapolis Colts back on the map in the AFC. Indy bolstered up the receiving core a bit through free agency and the draft.

2018 Fantasy Recap

FPTS 2018 YDS YDS/GM 300+ YDS CMP% YDS/ATT YDS/CMP TD INT QBR Yahoo PTS/G
337 4,593 287 7 67.3% 7.2 10.7 39 15 100.6 21.4

Andrew Luck returned to fantasy relevance in 2018 and finished as QB5 in terms of scoring. He had his second best season compared to 2014. 2018 was also a career high in attempts and completion percentage. There is no doubt he is back and also the partnership with Frank Reich has been a huge success. While we can point to the lowest yards per completion, but that has a lot to do with the new offensive strategy. Luck was a lot more efficient, and posted his highest quarterback rating of his career. He also saw the lowest sack rate of his career. The offensive line play has been horrendous for most of his career, but 2018 was a major step in the right direction.

In nine of Luck’s 16 games, he threw for three or more touchdowns. He only had three games where he had less than two. In previous seasons we saw Luck run a bit more, as he had four seasons with over rushing attempts and over 250 rushing yards. Last season he finished with 148 rushing yards and zero rushing touchdowns. Luck can move, but with his injury history, we likely won’t see much of Luck moving around. The shorter routes are also going to negate that rushing upside moving forward.

2019 Fantasy Outlook

Position Ranking ADP Auction Value Bye Week Completions Attempts Passing Yards Passing Touchdowns Interceptions Rushing Yards Rushing Touchdowns
QB2 4.11 $37 6 397.9 604.0 4526.8 36.8 15.3 182.6 1.1

We are projecting another top five season for Andrew Luck, and in fact he comes in as the QB2 in terms of projected stats. The Colts ranked third in pass attempts per game last season (39.6), which is up a few attempts from Luck’s last healthy season. With Reich running the show, the Colts were top five in plays per game. Luck in an efficient, fast paced offense is going to bring a stable floor again. The real upside is going to come if he can tack on some rushing stats. As mentioned above, we are either looking at Luck taking it easy on the ground, or possibly him easing back into things. I am leaning towards them trying to keep him healthy and take less hits. The difference between him finishing as QB5 compared to a QB2 or 3 is simply adding a rushing touchdown or two.

The Colts have surrounded Andrew Luck with plenty of weapons. He has two worthwhile tight ends to throw to, and Jack Doyle is back and fully healthy to start the season. Eric Ebron benefitted from a change of scenery, and while we won’t expect 2018 numbers, he is another weapon for Luck. T.Y. Hilton is going to turn 30 this year, and that is a bit of a concern for me. Hilton had some injuries down the stretch, but he still produced over 1,200 yards receiving. Parris Campbell is a burner out of Ohio State, and the Colts were high on him. This is just another addition to the offense. Needing a bigger bodied wide receiver, the Colts signed Devin Funchess.

Draft & Auction Value

The ADP and auction value at the moment is about where I expected him to go. Although he should be moving into the third round of some drafts as that QB run goes, but if other value Watson, Rodgers, and Mahomes higher, he will sit back one round later. Luck is someone who can return value on where he gets drafted, but there are quite a few names that could post similar stats for a few rounds later. Matt Ryan is one name that comes to mind. Auctions are always going to vary, but he is not a name I would pay over $35 for right now. A bit high for a quarterback who took a step back in rushing potential.

  
Jason Guilbault has been writing and podcasting in the fantasy sports world for over five years. You can find his work at Daily Fantasy Cafe. He is an avid Tottenham fan, and follows the Boston sports teams. When he isn’t diving into stats, he is enjoying the outdoors or down at the local brewery.

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