Antonio Brown Fantasy Football Outlook & Value 2019

antonio brownThe Pittsburgh soap-opera is finally coming to an end with Antonio Brown being shipped off to the Raiders in the offseason. A good move for the Steelers as a whole, but I see it negatively affecting Brown. It may be a classic case of “be careful what you wish for” as Derek Carr is certainly no Ben Roethlisberger, but we’ll get into that more later.

Brown sent this tweet out on June 11th.

Brown has been vocal on Twitter about many facets of his career, but here it seems he’s attempting to build hype for the 2019 season. Much like Odell Beckham Jr., Brown has a lot to prove this year. I can see him putting up some of the best numbers of his career on sheer ego alone. It’s no secret that Brown has it out for the Steelers, and I know for a fact nothing would bring him more satisfaction than to have a career season with the Raiders in his first year with the team.

Tier FPTS 2018 Rating GP SNPS/G TGT REC TGT/G YDS 100+ YDS YDS/REC TD Yahoo PTS/G
1 219.7 97 15 66.5 169 169 11.3 1,297 5 12.5 15 18.1

We currently have Brown slotted at WR7 behind OBJ at WR6. His ADP is 2.07 and his auction value out of $200 is a cool $28. Personally I think his auction value is a steal. Sure, Roethlisberger had the most passing yards in the league last year and Carr, well, didn’t, but Brown is still an elite wide receiver. For reference, OBJ and Juju Smith-Schuster are both listed at $31 and Hopkins and Thomas are at $33. A few dollars makes a big difference and you can certainly get value from Brown at $28.

Brown enters this year with the lowest floor of his career in my opinion. Despite me or anyone else thinking he’ll have a solid year, the fact of the matter is we just don’t know how he’ll fit into the Raider’s less-than-elite offense. I hate to repeat it, but Brown could really experience a “be careful what you wish for” moment all season long as Derek Carr misses him with pass after pass.

Oakland RaidersThat being said, the uncertainty swings the other way as well. Without a frame of reference, we could see Brown put up fantasy numbers previously unparalleled by his years with the Steelers. Even if the Raiders don’t do well as a whole, that doesn’t mean Brown couldn’t still be a top fantasy WR.

Carr finished 2018 12th in passing yards (4,049) and 27th in QBR. It’s certainly a downgrade from Big Ben, but it could still work. We currently have Brown projected for 86.7 receptions, 1,235.3 yards, and 9.8 TDs.

One thing I’m concerned about for Brown is his ability to get along with his teammates and the organization he’s a part of. With Brown still firing off petty tweets about the Steelers throughout the offseason, it’s clear that he holds grudges. As of now, I don’t see any reason that the same thing wouldn’t happen with the Raiders if Brown starts to take fault with anything that’s happening on or off the field.

  
After suffering a career ending injury as a high school freshman B-team quarterback, Emmett has completely devoted himself to sports fandom. A Chicago (suburb) native, he is loyal to all his teams. He is currently a junior at Chapman University in Southern California and thoroughly enjoys Microsoft Excel.

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