Appalachian State vs. Troy: Prediction & Odds (12/2/23)

Appalachian State vs. Troy kicks off this Saturday (12/02/23) at 4:00pm EST in Troy Alabama as the host site for the Sun Belt Conference Championship. Get Appalachian State vs. Troy predictions and best bets below as our best bet is on App State +6 as they have key advantages to keep this within the spread.

Appalachian State Vs. Troy Prediction

App State will look to make the most of their opportunity as they get the benefit of James Madison going through a transition probation period. As for Troy, they did what they needed to do by cruising to an easy division clinching record off the backs of their defense. The issue is that their lack of offense may be their own undoing at the most critical moment, giving App State a better chance of an upset than the spread implies.

The contrast of their offensive and defensive metrics is almost appalling for how well Troy has run this season. They finished the year ranking 19th in Def Success Rate, ninth in Def Points per Opportunity, and 20th in Havoc. On the other side of the coin, their offense finished 87th in Success Rate, 84th in Points per Opportunity, and 74th in Havoc Allowed. Worse yet, the one area of the offense they excel in comes with a lack of generating consistent success, ranking 69th in Pass Success Rate while their ground game is practically non-existent.

That is a major area of concern for Troy as they are unable to exploit App State’s defensive weakness while the Mountaineers have key advantages on the other end. App State currently ranks 71st in Def Pass Success Rate while their rush defense clocks in at 93rd in Def Rush Success Rate, 113th in Def Rush PPA, and 104th in Def Rush Explosiveness. Troy does have an advantage in Rush Explosiveness, yet hardly an area of the offense to back consistent success against a stacked App State box.

With Troy’s offense most likely sputtering for a majority of the contest, it will be on App State’s offense to swing momentum their way by sustaining drives down the field. Troy’s defense is elite across the board, yet App State has the pass attack to pick apart their coverage. Under quarterback Joey Aguilar, App State’s pass attack clocks in at 13th in Pass Success Rate, 16th in Pass PPA, and 27th in Pass Explosiveness.

Rushing hasn’t exactly been good for App State this year, ranking below average in Success Rate, Explosiveness, and PPA, but their metrics would be due to improve against a thinned out second level of the defense. Getting the complement of a ground game would put App State in a better position to move the sticks, taking advantage of their scoring opportunities and setting a scoring pace too fast for Troy to keep up with.

Appalachian State Vs. Troy Prediction: App State +6

Appalachian State Vs. Troy Best Odds

Even with a pass attack that can give Troy’s defense fits, oddsmakers still lean towards the Trojans favor by opening them as a -6.5 favorite. Bettors think otherwise, slightly leaning towards the Mountaineers favor by betting them down to +5.5 in some shops. Should the App State defense slow down the Troy offense, then they are in a great position to stay within the number.

As for the total, oddsmakers believe points will be scored at a moderate pace as they opened the number at 51.5. Bettors believe points will come at a slightly faster pace, backing the over up to 52.5 as of writing. A surprising line movement as Troy’s offense should struggle to generate consistency, potentially failing to do their part towards the over.

Appalachian State Vs. Troy Key Matchups

Who will flip the field in their favor by generating a back breaking turnover?

Havoc Vs. Havoc Allowed

With Troy’s offense being unable to take advantage of a weak App State defense while App State’s pass attack is able to move the ball down the field, Havoc looms large as it can drastically alter the trajectory of this game. That makes for an intriguing battle as both defenses rank above average in Havoc.

App State’s fourth takeaway of the day, with Jordan Favors delivering the third INT, sets up Joey Aguilar’s third touchdown pass of the day.

Watch on ESPNU 📺 pic.twitter.com/bd7b7ayKvg

— App State Football (@AppState_FB) November 25, 2023

Better yet for our App State +6 ticket, they have the advantage in this department as they do a better job at taking care of the ball. They rank 57th in Havoc Allowed in comparison to Troy who clocks in at 74th. Better yet, Troy may lean heavier on the pass attack should they fall behind early, opening the door for more Havoc minded plays off of an inconsistent pass attack.

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