Arizona Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Eagles NFL Player Props & Picks (12/31/23)

Get Arizona Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Eagles player prop picks & odds for the (12/31/23) matchup

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Arizona Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Eagles Player Prop Picks

The Arizona Cardinals (3-12) visit the Philadelphia Eagles (11-4) on Sunday (12/31/23) at 1 p.m EST. The Eagles are heavy favorites at -12 against the spread and their playmakers like A.J. Brown and D’Andre Swift could be poised for big games against one of the worst defenses in the league.

This article analyzes the betting odds for player prop bets in this game and recommends the best Cardinals vs. Eagles player prop bets.

D’Andre Swift 80+ rushing yards (+140 at FanDuel)

In case you haven’t been paying attention this season, the Cardinals’ defense is really bad. Like, really embarrassingly bad.

Arizona Cardinals Defense (through Week 16)
32nd DVOA
32nd EPA/play
32nd success rate
32nd series conversion rate
32nd points/drive
32nd TD/drive
32nd yards/drive

They probably should have hired a defensive head coach.

— Deniz Selman (@denizselman33) December 28, 2023

So we are going to focus on the Eagles’ playmakers for our player prop bets in this game, starting with running back D’Andre Swift. The Cardinals’ defense is terrible across the board, but they are probably worst against the run.

Over their last four games, Arizona has allowed 188 rushing yards per game on 5.8 yards per carry. Overall this season they are dead last in rushing defense (147 per game), 31st in DVOA, and 29th in EPA against the run. The have allowed over 110 rushing yards to an opposing RB in four of their last five games and they’ve allowed at least 80 yards in nine of their last 11 games.

After kind of disappearing for a few weeks in the middle of the season (more because of play calling than performance), Swift has been getting much more involved in the Eagles’ offense over the last two weeks. He has at least 18 rush attempts in back to back games after only logging that many carries twice in the entire season before week 15. He has translated that to 83 yards per game on 4.4 yards per carry.

If Swift gets that kind of usage in this game, he should go way over his regular prop line of 69.5 rushing yards. That is why we would be a bit more aggressive with this play by taking an alternate line of 80+ yards at +140 odds.

We are asking D’Andre Swift – who is 5th in the league in rushing yards and will go over 1,000 yards in this game – to gain roughly 70% of the yards that running backs like Devin Singletary and Khalil Herbert have gained against the Cardinals in recent games. That does not seem like a big ask relative to the +140 odds, which is why this is our favorite player prop bet in this game.

DeVonta Smith over 4.5 receptions (+102 at FanDuel)

Sticking with the Eagles’ offense, we like Jalen Hurts to put up some numbers in the passing game along with Swift’s rushing, so we’re going to look at one of his pass catchers for our next pick.

A.J. Brown has been in a bit of a slump, and could be a candidate for a big bounce back game. But his prop lines of 6.5 receptions and 86.5 receiving yards are a bit too high for our liking given his recent performance. Dallas Goedert just had his best game since returning from injury, but the Cardinals have actually done a very good job against tight ends this season, allowing the 3rd fewest receptions and the 8th fewest yards to the position.

That leaves DeVonta Smith, who has been the Eagles’ most consistent pass catcher recently. He has at least five receptions and at least 70 receiving yards in six of his last eight games. He has also gone over his receiving yards prop in seven of his last eight and over his receptions prop in six out of eight.

We like both his receiving yards and receptions props in this game, but we picked the receptions to get the +102 odds. Smith has at least five receptions in nine of his 15 games overall this season and had four catches four other times. So he has been within one catch of hitting the over on this prop line in 13 out of 15 games. He is averaging 5.2 catches on 7.1 targets per game this season.

The Cardinals’ passing defense is not much better than their run defense, so the Eagles’ offense should be more than capable of supporting some big numbers both on the ground and through the air. The Cardinals are 31st in DVOA and dead last in EPA and success rate against the pass. Their starting cornerbacks are veteran journeyman Antonio Hamilton and undrafted rookie Starling Thomas.

So yeah, Smith should be primed for another solid game and should have no problem catching at least five passes this week.

Kyler Murray over 27.5 rushing yards (-113 at FanDuel)

Let’s not pick only Eagles and find a player prop bet we like on the Cardinals’ side of this matchup. Our favorite Cardinals pick is Kyler Murray over 27.5 rushing yards.

Murray has literally hit the ground running since returning him his ACL injury in week 10. He has over 30 rushing yards in four of his six games since he returned and is averaging 31.2 rushing yards per game on 5.5 yards per attempt.

The Eagles’ numbers against running QBs are solid this season, but they have not faced many true running threats like Murray this season. The ones they have faced have found success on the ground. Patrick Mahomes gained 38 rushing yards and Josh Allen gained 81 yards. Murray rushed for 42 yards when these teams played last year.

With the Cardinals being big underdogs in this game, Murray is likely to be dropping back to pass more than usual, which means more opportunities for him to gain rushing yards when plays break down, which is one of his greatest strengths. It could only take two or three carries for him to hit this over, and he should get more opportunities than that.

Given his recent production, this number is simply too low and represents a solid value.

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