Arizona State vs. Washington kicks off this Saturday at 10:30pm EST in Seattle Washington as a home game for the Huskies. Arizona State is currently a +26.5 underdog and +1800 on the moneyline while the total is set at 60.5. Read on for more Arizona State vs. Washington best bets and predictions as Washington fights against a sleepy spot that gives value towards a team total under.
Arizona State Vs. Washington Prediction & Best Bet
While Washington’s start to the season before the Oregon game was something to admire, it was tough to peg them as any sort of contender until they proved it against one of the upper echelon teams in the Pac 12. They proved just that in what was an absolute slugfest between the two Pac 12 elites, edging out Oregon with a late fourth quarter drive behind the brilliant arm of Michael Penix Jr.
Oregon’s decision making was in question, but at the end of the day they made the right decision by being hyper aggressive on fourth downs. While it didn’t work at a critical time, this would be a whole different story should they have converted. That’s a compliment towards Washington’s offense, showing that they need to extend their own drives in an effort to keep Washington off the field as points come at a near automatic rate when Penix gets the passing game going.
Speaking of Washington’s offense putting up points on the board, this spot serves as a sleepy spot for the Huskies after a major emotional win and against a far inferior competitor. Normally in these spots the dominant favorite walks through practice, focusing more on resting and building a game plan for future competition. Expect a hyper conservative game plan, playing towards Arizona State’s defensive strengths.
The Sun Devils defense doesn’t do much right, but they are able to halt the Huskies pass attack at a slow enough rate that gives value towards Washington’s team total under. They rank league average in Def Pass Success Rate and top-5 in Def Pass Explosiveness, meaning that they have the ability to creep up the field without sacrificing the big play behind them. That directly correlates to Washington’s pass attack, a unit that thrives in Pass Success Rate instead of the big gain.
Where this gets especially intriguing is when Washington gets into scoring position. That’s when the Sun Devils pass defense really ramps up, ranking an impressive 32nd in Def Pass PPA. That’s vital against Washington, a unit that ranks third in Pass PPA. Should the Sun Devils hold the Huskies to a field goal, let alone nothing, then that creates a massive swing towards the team total under as it sits at a high number.
Arizona State Vs. Washington Prediction & Best Bet: Washington Team Total u42.5
Arizona State Vs. Washington Betting Odds
Even in a sleepy spot, oddsmakers still have the Huskies as a dominant favorite by opening Washington at -28. Bettors believe that number opened a tad too high, backing the Sun Devils down to as low as +26.5. That number has since crept back up to -27.5 in some shops as of writing, bouncing back and forth between key secondary numbers at the spread.
As for the total, points are expected to be scored at a blistering fast pace as oddsmakers opened the number at 62.5. Like the spread, bettors believe that number has opened a tad too high and have backed the under down to 59.5. That is directly correlated to the belief that Washington may take their foot off the gas, running a conservative game script against an inferior Sun Devil squad.
Arizona State Vs. Washington Key Matchups
Can Arizona State find any offensive success to keep drives alive and run time off the clock?
Cameron Skattebo Vs. Washington Front Seven
While question marks surround the quarterback position for Arizona State due to injuries, their ground game is pretty straight forward with Cameron Skattebo serving as their lead back. He’s put together a modest start to the year, currently rushing for 362 yards and five rushing touchdowns.
Incredible touchdown by Cameron Skattebo on 4th down. pic.twitter.com/HwxZg4M0Mo
— Cameron Salerno (@cameronsalerno1) September 24, 2023
Arizona State tends to call a heavier dose of the pass, ranking 13th in Pass Play Rate, but would be better off attacking Washington’s weak rush defense. Defending the run in the mid field has been an issue for Washington, ranking a lowly 119th in Def Rush Success Rate. That gives ASU the chance to shorten the distance to gain on later downs, giving them a higher chance to convert on later downs at a shorter distance.