Arizona vs. Illinois: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (12/11/21)

Arizona vs. Illinois Betting Odds

Nobody outside of Arizona picked the Wildcats to win the Pac-12, but they should’ve. Arizona is playing out of their mind, storming out to an 8-0 record behind convincing wins against Wichita State and Michigan.

Meanwhile, Illinois was a very popular preseason pick to win the Big Ten. Things have been shaky in Champaign, but the Illini are riding a five-game win streak and are 2-0 in conference play.

This game feels impossible to handicap. Is Arizona good enough to win in Champaign? Can the Illini string together a few more wins?

And, most importantly, which team has the edge against the spread?

Arizona Wildcats Odds

Right now, Arizona is hovering around 30-to-1 to cut down the nets in March. I don’t think there’s a better bet.

Since Tommy Lloyd took over, Arizona has turned into a lengthy, fast-paced, high-powered efficiency machine. The Wildcats run at the ninth highest tempo in the country, have recorded the second-highest A/FGM mark nationally, and rank 19th in effective field goal percentage. No team in the country has held Arizona under 80 points, including Michigan and Wichita State, and it has yet to record less than 70 possessions in a game.

On the interior, the Cats run a frontcourt that consists of 6-foot-11 Azuolas Tubelis, 7-foot-0 Oumar Ballo, and 7-foot-1 Christian Koloko. As a result, the Cats are top-10 nationally in block rate on offense and on defense, are third in 2-point shooting (59.8%), and first in 2-point defense (38.4%).

Arizona forces the ball inside and scores at will down low. The ranking fourth nationally in field-goal percentage at the rim (73.8%) and ranking above the 90th percentile in both post-up points per possession (1.065) and offensive rebound/put-back points per possession (1.314).

Moreover, the Cats can score on the run. Arizona gets out into transition at the 15th highest rate nationally and scores more than 1.1 points per possession when doing so.

The Wildcats reminds me of Gonzaga, which isn’t surprising considering Lloyd is a former Mark Few assistant. But right now, Arizona is Zagging better than the Zags, with the Wildcats pacing the nation in scoring (91.6 points per game).

Illinois Fighting Illini Odds

Illinois was my pre-season pick to win the Big Ten. But things have been shaky in Champaign.

Particularly on the perimeter, where Andre Curbelo and Trent Frazier have been underwhelming and turnover-prone. The Illini are outside the top-300 in both turnover rate on offense and forcing turnovers on defense.

However, since Curbelo got hurt and Kofi Cockburn came back, Alfanso Plummer and Cockburn have led the Illini to three straight KenPom top-100 wins. Most recently, the two combined for 38 points in a win over Iowa.

Illinois does a lot of things right. Like working well through Cockburn in the post (92nd percentile in post-up points per possession allowed) or defending the pick-and-roll (95th percentile in pick-and-roll points per possession allowed).

Illinois doesn’t have my full trust yet. But if any coach can tie a team together down the stretch, it’s Brad Underwood.

Prediction and Pick

My Pick: Illinois +1.5 (-110 at PointsBet)

The Wildcats are just overvalued. This will be their second true road game but their first real test, with the other being a blowout over Oregon State.

The projection market for this game has Illinois between a two-point favorite (KenPom) and a half-point underdog (Evan Miya). That creates tons of value for a Big Ten road dog.

Arizona is going to play fast and try and force the ball down low on both ends of the court. Waiting for the Wildcats in Champaign will be Kofi Cockburn, who’s shooting almost 70% from 2-point range while leading a defense that’s top-30 nationally in 2-point defense.

This is a good spot for Arizona to take their first loss. I’ll play Underwood’s Illini down to a PK.