Arkansas vs Tennessee: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (3/5/22)

Arkansas vs Tennessee Betting Odds

Both Arkansas and Tennessee have locked up a double-bye in the SEC tournament. So, both will be playing immediately in the quarterfinals no matter the result on Saturday.

However, the winner of this game can jump up a spot on the seed line while the loser might dropdown. So, motivation is still a factor for both teams.

Arkansas is the hottest team in the nation. Arkansas is a whopping 13-1 in its last 14 games, most recently holding off LSU by one point at home.

Meanwhile, Tennessee is the second-hottest team in the nation. The Vols are 11-2 in their last 13 games, beating Kentucky and Auburn along the way.

These are two immensely talented teams, and both are in the running for a four-seed or higher in the Big Dance. But which one has the edge on Saturday in Knoxville?

Arkansas Razorbacks Odds

You do not want to play Arkansas right now.

The Razorbacks have beaten every big-time rival they’ve faced so far, outside of Alabama. The calling card has been a steadily improving defense which now leads the SEC in defensive efficiency and ranks second in effective field goal percentage allowed (44.5%).

Meanwhile, JD Notae has become an All-SEC player. After a couple of big-time performances in the last few weeks, Notae is now averaging 18.8 points and 3.6 assists per game. He’s deadly as a driver and has limitless range, making him a tough match-up for any SEC guard.

Some teams shoot half court shots as a pre-game ritual but here at Arkansas we do it in game 😂 @jdnotae pic.twitter.com/fJchLAWEjU

— Eric Musselman (@EricPMusselman) March 3, 2022

But Notae is also not dead weight on defense either, picking up over 2.1 steals per game.

Without Notae, the Arkansas offense is literally dead weight. There aren’t any other consistent bucket-getters in the lineup outside of center Jaylin Williams. The Hogs’ offensive efficiency drops a whole lot when he’s off the court.

Image credit: CBB Analytics

Tennessee Volunteers Odds

I’m not the biggest Tennessee believer. But I’ve been impressed with the second half of the season.

To stage a second-half comeback against Auburn – even if it was at home – is a big feat for an offense that’s had struggles in the past.

Kennedy Chandler has transformed the offense, as the rookie is responsible for 13.6 points and 4.6 assists per game. His 31.5 assist rate is top-50 nationally among D-I players.

Defense is the calling card for Rick Barnes-led teams. The Vols are third nationally in defensive efficiency, but that number has regressed a bit in conference play.

I usually look to fade Barnes and Tennessee come March, because this supposedly “elite” defense tends to fade in big-time moments. But this season has a slightly different feeling thanks to Chandler and a big-time shot-maker Santiago Vescovi.

Behind a 39.3 3P%, Vescovi now scores more than chandler with a much-higher ORtg (116.0).

Also, keep an eye on big-man John Fulkerson. At 6-foot-9, he’s become one of the best offensive rebounders in the SEC. He’s the anchor of the second unit when the other guys are off the floor.

Arkansas vs Tennessee Prediction and Pick

This is a lot of points. But the Arkansas stock is so high right now, and the Hogs are due for a big-time loss.

Additionally, I think Tennessee will be more fired up for this game considering its Senior night in Knoxville. The Vols also are still a perfect 15-0 at home, and they have a chance to remain perfect at home with a win in the regular-season finale.

Arkansas still would like to win this game, but the motivation for the Hogs isn’t quite as high. A loss in Knoxville on Saturday won’t take away the double-bye in the SEC tournament and likely won’t drop the Razorbacks’ seeding projections for the big dance.

I like Tennessee to pick up a considerable win in this spot.