Army vs. Navy: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (12/11/21)

Army vs. Navy Betting Odds

Sadly, we’ve made it here. The college football regular season will end with this standalone Army vs. Navy game.

However, ending the season on this note – with a standalone game between two service academies – is one of the best ways to end it. These are two proud programs that will play a hard-fought game while exposing the nation to the triple-option offense.

Army will be heading off to a bowl game after this, but Navy’s season is done. However, this is the 11th bowl-bound team Navy has faced this season, so it’s not as if the Midshipmen are not battle-tested.

Army Black Knights Odds

Army is 8-3 and 6-5 against the spread. The Black Knights are also 4-1 against the spread on the road this season, although this game is being played at a neutral site (MetLife Stadium).

The biggest strength of this Army team is the rush defense, which will give the Black Knights the biggest advantage in this game. Army allows just 3.6 yards per rush and is top-30 nationally in both defensive Rush Success Rate and defensive Standard Downs Success Rate.

Basically, the front seven can dominate at the point of attack. However, the Black Knights lack a little in the secondary and are particularly bad at keeping things in front of them. Army ranks 127th in preventing Explosiveness, including 128th in preventing early-down Explosiveness.

Offensively, the Black Knights can be somewhat explosive. Although five players have thrown a pass for them this season, and they only average 7.7 pass attempts per game, the Black Knights are averaging close to 13 yards per pass attempt. When Army completes a pass, it’s averaging over 20 yards per reception.

But obviously, the strength of the team is in the triple-option. Army averages five yards per carry and is top-30 in Standard Downs Success Rate. Like every service academy, Army attempts to methodically move the football down the field.

Army is rather good at that.

Navy Midshipmen Odds

While Army has been successful at running the triple-option, Navy hasn’t been.

Navy is somehow averaging just 3.9 yards per carry and ranks outside the top 110 teams in Rush Success Rate and Standard Downs Success Rate. For a team that is so committed to running the football, the Midshipmen have been pathetic at doing so.

Navy is simply weak on the offensive line. Something that the Midshipmen are better at on the defensive end, wherein the defensive line ranks inside the top-20 in Line Yards.

That hasn’t really helped the team’s overall success. Navy is allowing 4.1 yards per carry and rank outside the top-100 in defensive Pass Success Rate. Plus, Navy is a brutal 117th in PFF’s coverage grades.

Navy is a weak team, and its 3-8 record reflects that.

Prediction and Pick 

My pick: Navy +8 (-110 at DraftKings) | Lean Under 37 (-110 at DraftKings)

However, Navy is also 7-4 against the spread this season. The Midshipmen have covered in four of their last five games, including in three of their last four as underdogs.

Saturday, Navy is catching over a touchdown in a game where the total is falling below 35 at some books. Plus, Army is just 2-4 against the spread this season as a favorite, as the triple-option is not conducive to blowouts.

I’ve seen projections that make this spread closer to Army -4.5, meaning there is clear value with the Midshipmen in this spot.

And outside of the logical reasons that Navy will cover this spread, there’s also the illogical ones. This is Army vs. Navy, with Navy looking to end its season on a high note while Army is looking ahead to a bowl game. The Midshipmen are going to empty the tank for their final game, and I would be surprised if this service academy game isn’t a close-fought one.

If you want to look at the under again, I wouldn’t blame you.

• Service Academy unders are 40-9-1 in the last 50
• Army is 4-1 to the under following a win
• Navy is 5-1 to the under in its last six games as an underdog