Army vs. Navy Same Game Parlay (12/9/23)

As the calendar turns to December, college football fans all know that it’s officially time for one of the great traditions in all of sports, the Army-Navy football game. This will be the 124th meeting of a series played since 1890, and Navy holds an edge of 62-54-7, but Army is favored to keep turning that number around. This game will also be the first edition to take place in Massachusetts, one of the most fittingly historic and patriotic areas in the country. It’s set to be a true spectacle, so let’s see how we can find some extra value with a same game parlay.

Army vs. Navy Same Game Parlay Picks

Service academy games are traditionally low-scoring but the total for this one has hit some drastic lows that we’re not even used to seeing in this context. Still, somebody has to be the hero, so let’s see how we can pull that thread of logic into an extremely high-value same game parlay.

Leg 1: Army Moneyline (-146)

Army has a chance to achieve something incredibly special; after a win over Air Force earlier this year, with Navy having fallen to the third service academy, the Black Knights can secure the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy. This is one of the most unique rivalry prizes in college football, as it’s one of two annually-contested triangle trophies, and this would be just the tenth win for Army, having last earned it in 2020.

That win was not only key in terms of the rivalry, it was also a really impressive effort, as the Falcons are surely the best team of the three this year and Army ran away with a 23-3 victory. Air Force quarterback Zac Larrier threw his only two picks of the season, and star back Emmanuel Michel was completely stifled. Army has had some issues stopping the run this year, but they showed that they can do it, to an extent, against a fellow service academy as they can stack the box with almost no threat of the air game. With Navy taking basically the same offensive approach – the Midshipmen have thrown just 163 times this year, and done so almost completely ineffectively – Army should be able to get through this game in a similar fashion.

Leg 2: Bryson Daily Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+210)

These games aren’t generally that high-scoring, but someone has to get in the end zone. Daily, the Black Knights’ quarterback, is a great bet to be the one to do it. He is easily the team’s leading rusher, with nearly twice as many yards as anyone else on the roster, and his seven ground touchdowns are far clear of three for Jakobi Buchanan, who sits in second place.

This play also correlates heavily with our first leg; it’s hard to imagine Army winning without getting at least a score from their star quarterback. As the leader of the team, Daily will be at the heart of any success the Black Knights are able to find, so odds over +200 for him to score provide us with some fantastic value.

Leg 3: Alex Tecza Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+410)

We already alluded to Army’s defensive ineptitude against the run; they’re 108th in the country in run defense EPA. They should have a better day than usual against a Navy team that won’t be throwing too much. They’re more air-heavy than Air Force, ironically, but Larrier threw 22 passes against Army, by far a season-high, and the Black Knights were still fine.

All of this goes to say that we will not be taking a yardage prop, in part because they’re hard to find, but I also would not recommend doing so if you do have the chance. Instead, we’ll invest in the touchdown prop for Navy fullback Alex Tecza, by far the team’s leading rusher. His five scores aren’t a tremendous number, hence the long odds on the prop, but if Navy scores, it should be through him.

Leg 4: Alternate Total Under 43.5 Points (-1200)

At a glance, -1200 might seem like a useless leg to add, but it stretches the overall odds of this parlay from +2458 to the +3992 we ended up with. Given the other legs, all of which have much longer odds, this is a great, relatively low-risk way to drastically increase your potential payout.

Part of this is because it’s correlated against the fact that we have picked two touchdown scorers, but someone’s going to find the end zone. This number, unlike the base total, leaves plenty of room for a couple of players to find the end zone.

Even with a couple of players we expect to score and some serious overcorrection from the market in regards to service academy unders, pace of play still makes this alternate number a great play. Army was the third-slowest team this year in terms of seconds per snap, while Navy was sixth from the bottom in the same category.

Even with a stated preseason emphasis on moving away from the triple-option, these were still the second- and third most run-heavy teams with snap percentages in the mid-70s, down from the figures in the 80s we usually see from them, but still incredibly high. All of this boiled down to 20.9 points per game for Army, and 18.3 for Navy, the 12th-lowest figure of any team in the country.

While last year’s edition of this game did end up featuring 37 points, it’s extremely worth noting that only 20 were scored in regulation, before the two teams chipped in for 17 across two eventful overtime periods. That’s a fairly niche outcome and it still flew in well under this alternate line, making it an extremely comfortable way to add value to our parlay.

Same Game Parlay Card For Army vs. Navy

Full parlay odds: +3992

Army Moneyline (-146)
Bryson Daily Anytime Touchdown (+210)
Alex Tecza Anytime Touchdown (+410)
Alternate Total Under 43.5 Points (-1200)

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