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New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles Player Prop Picks
The Philadelphia Eagles (10-4) play host their NFC East division rivals the New York Giants (5-9) on Christmas Day (12/25/23) at 4:30 p.m. EST. The Eagles are heavy favorites at -12 against the spread, while the over/under is set at 43 points.
Saquon Barkley over 53.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
The way the Eagles’ defense has been struggling lately, it’s been a good strategy to bet the over on the opposing offense’s best player’s prop bets. This week that is Saquon Barkley, whose line of 53.5 rushing yards at FanDuel (and 55.5 at most other sportsbooks) is simply too low.
Barkley is coming off his worst game of the season, with only 14 rushing yards and 37 total scrimmage yards on just 11 touches. That was an anomaly for Barkley this season and not a major cause for concern, as this matchup presents an excellent bounce back opportunity for him.
The Eagles had one of the best run defenses in the league for the first half of the season, but they have regressed dramatically over their last five games since their bye week. During that span they have allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game and the ninth-highest rate of explosive runs (10+ yards). Barkley ranks 9th in explosive run rate this season despite the poor offensive line in front of him.
Four of the last five starting running backs the Eagles have faced have gained at least 59 yards, and they have all hit the over on their rushing props. Those five RBs have averaged 74 yards per game against the Eagles.
Barkley has hit the over on his rushing yards prop in seven of his 11 games this season and has gained at least 60 rushing yards in eight games. This is the lowest his rushing prop has been since week 6 against Buffalo, and the second-lowest it’s been all season. That doesn’t make a whole lot of sense given the Eagles’ recent struggles against the run.
The counterargument here is that the Giants are 12-point underdogs and are likely to be in a negative game script. If they’re playing from behind for most of the game, then they might be forced to abandon the run. But the Giants have been playing from behind in almost every game this season, and Barkley has still produced the numbers mentioned above. The way the Eagles have been struggling, we don’t expect them to run away with this game, at least not early in the game, so Barkley should have plenty of opportunities to smash the over on this number.
Jalen Hurts over 230.5 passing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Let’s continue with the theme of picking the over on deflated lines. This week’s line of 230.5 passing yards is Jalen Hurts’ lowest passing yards prop line of the season. That is understandable considering how much the Eagles’ passing offense has struggled recently. Hurts has only passed for over 207 yards once in his last six games, and he’s averaging 199.2 yards per game over that span.
Hurts is too good to stay in a slump like that forever, and this week is a great opportunity for him to have a bounce back performance. The Giants have been better against the pass this season (18th in DVOA, 16th in EPA) than they have against the run (29th in both DVOA and EPA). However, their pass defense has regressed over their last five games, when they have allowed the sixth-most passing yards and 12th-highest completion percentage over expected. They are 22nd in EPA against the pass over that span.
The Eagles should focus on establishing the run against the Giants, as that is still where their defense is most vulnerable. However, they have just been too inconsistent about running the ball this season, and we can’t trust them to do what seems to make the most sense. They have been a pass-first offense all season, and they’re going to want to get the passing attack back on track this week.
As with the Barkley rushing pick, our biggest hesitation here was the potential game script if the Eagles jump out to a big lead. In that scenario, Hurts might not have to pass the ball enough to surpass 230 yards. However, he could easily rack up some passing yards in the process of building a big lead, especially given how inconsistently the Eagles have run the ball this season. And again, given their recent performance, we don’t expect the Eagles to open up a big lead until late in the game, if at all.
Either way, Hurts has a very good chance to have a good passing performance in this matchup. If he does, he should have no problem going over his lowest line of the season.
Boston Scott Anytime Touchdown (+350 at BetMGM)
Just for fun, we have to roll with the anytime touchdown bet for “Giant Killer” Boston Scott. For the uninitiated, Scott is the Eagles’ little-used third-string running back who somehow manages to dominate every time he faces the Giants. There is no good explanation for it, but for some reason the Eagles just love using Scott against the Giants, and he consistently delivers for them.
In nine career games against the Giants, Scott has gained more yards (446 rushing, 222 receiving) and scored more touchdowns (11) than he has against any other team, and it’s not particularly close. Those numbers account for 33.3% of his career scrimmage yards and 55% of his career touchdowns in just 11.4% of his career games.
Last season, Scott tallied 21 carries for 119 yards (5.67 average) and three touchdowns in three games against the Giants (including the playoffs). In his other 15 games, he totaled 42 carries for 159 yards (3.79 average) and two touchdowns.
The fact that a player with zero touchdowns this season has only +350 odds for an anytime TD is all you need to know about Scott’s dominance of the Giants. Those odds are lower than the Giants’ two starting wide receivers Darius Slayton (+375) and Wan’Dale Robinson (+375). They are also lower than the Eagles’ second-string RB Kenneth Gainwell (+500), who is their typical red zone running back.
It’s completely inexplicable, but something about playing the Giants clearly brings out the best in Boston Scott. We cashed this bet three times last season, and you better believe we’re going to keep betting it until it misses.