Golden State Warriors vs. Sacramento Kings: Predictions, Starting Lineups (10/27/23)

The Golden State Warriors (0-1) battle the Sacramento Kings (1-0) this Friday (10/27/23). Get Warriors vs. Kings moneyline and spread odds, as well as predictions, starting lineups, injuries and key matchups.

Golden State Warriors vs. Sacramento Kings Prediction

Braxton Reynolds

Lineups

Over 120.5

BetMGM

-125

How many points will the Sacramento Kings score?

Golden State Warriors @ Sacramento Kings

NBA2023-24 Week of Oct 23

10/28 2:00 AM


Bet with Braxton


Published on Oct 27, 2023 4:53 AM

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Last season, Golden State went 11-30 on the road because of a horrendous 118.3 defensive rating. They were completely lost when not playing in Chase Center due to a lack of communication and high foul rate. Meanwhile, Sacramento recorded the largest Offensive Rating in NBA history last year, and they opened the season by scorching Utah for 130 points.

Domantas Sabonis is dominating as a dribble handoff orchestrator because of his exceptional passing and court vision. The Kings are embracing off-ball movement with their shooters, which provides Sabonis with a number of targets. Kevin Huerter (40.2 3PT%), Keegan Murray (41.1 3PT%), and Harrison Barnes (37.4 3PT%) rarely miss their catch-and-shoot opportunities too, which doesn’t bode well for a Golden State defense that bled open threes last year.

Draymond Green pestered Sabonis during the playoffs and frequently disrupted passing lanes, so his injury removes a significant obstacle for Sacramento’s offense. Golden State’s trio of Stephen Curry, Chris Paul, and Klay Thompson will struggle mightily to follow Sacramento’s shooters through screens. All-NBA guard De’Aaron Fox’s speed is another issue for Golden State’s older guards, as Fox will simply blow past them off the dribble. The Warriors severely lack rim protection too, so they cannot deter Fox’s drives either.

Sacramento’s bench possesses a ton of firepower. Malik Monk is an incredible shot-maker who will vie for Sixth Man of the Year, while Chris Duarte and Aleks Vezenkoc can drain threes. In addition, Davion Mitchell can run the pick-and-roll with Alex Len or JaVale McGee.

Overall, the Kings are an offensive juggernaut that rains down threes, gets out in transition, and cuts well. Given Golden State’s horrible road play, bad perimeter defense, poor rim protection, and Green’s injury, Sacramento should tear them apart. Look for the Kings to breach 121 points here.

Golden State Warriors vs. Sacramento Kings Prediction: Kings over 120.5 points (-125 BMGM)

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Golden State Warriors vs. Sacramento Kings Best Odds

GS @ SAC

Oct. 27, 9:00 PM

Spread

Moneyline

Total

Golden State Warriors

GS

Sacramento Kings

SAC

Odds updated October 27th, 2023, at 11:26 pm

The Sacramento Kings enter this contest as a slight 2.5 point favorite. Golden State must win this game about 42% of the time for their +138 moneyline to have a positive expected value. Finally, the over under is massive because of the offenses and defenses involved.

Golden State Warriors Starting Lineup

PG: Stpehen Curry
SG: Chris Paul
SF: Klay Thompson
PF: Andrew Wiggins
C: Kevon Looney

Sacramento Kings Starting Lineup

PG: De’Aaron Fox
SG: Kevin Huerter
SF: Keegan Murray
PF: Harrison Barnes
C: Domantas Sabonis

Golden State Warriors vs. Sacramento Kings Injuries

Warriors forward Draymond Green remains out, which is a massive blow to their defense. On the other side, Trey Lyles (7.6 PPG) is out for the Kings.

Golden State Warriors vs. Sacramento Kings Key Matchups

Pace of Play

Sacramento and Golden State both play at a lightning-quick pace and love to run in transition. Therefore, this matchup will see more possessions than the average NBA game, which lowers how efficient the Kings need to be to hit 121 points. Transition opportunities also inherently hold a higher expected points per possession too.

3PT Shooting

For the Kings to hit 121 points, it’s imperative that they hit their three-point shots. Sacramento’s offensive system routinely grants them wide open threes, and they own a stable of excellent shooters, both catch-and-shoot and motion. Therefore, they have every chance to hit at a respectable rate, especially given Golden State’s porous defense.

Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2021-22 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs about analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions and NBA Analysis Network.

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