Atlanta Braves vs. Colorado Rockies Matchup Preview (9/4/21): Betting Odds, Starting Lineups, Daily Fantasy Picks
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Atlanta Braves vs. Colorado Rockies Matchup Preview (9/4/21)
The Braves were one of the hottest teams in baseball, and they actually managed to build up a decent lead in the NL East race.
However, the Braves recent 4-6 stretch has them again in a battle for the division; this time, they’re just two games up on the Phillies. Given the Phillies ridiculously easy schedule down the stretch, every series is a must-win for Atlanta.
Unfortunately, this is not one of them. Despite their overall record, the Rockies have been one of the best home teams in MLB this season. The Rockies pair their 18-50 road record with a 43-23 home record – a home record only the Giants and Dodgers can beat.
However, the Braves took game one of this series in a 6-5 thriller, but do they still have the edge in the second game?
Personally, I think the value is going to come from the starting pitching matchup. But let’s dig in and find the best bet for Saturday night.
Atlanta Braves Starting Lineups
- 2B Ozzie Albies S
- RF Jorge Soler R
- 1B F. Freeman L
- 3B Austin Riley R
- SS D. Swanson R
- LF Adam Duvall R
- C T. d’Arnaud R
- CF Joc Pederson L
- P Ian Anderson R
Atlanta Braves Analysis
The Braves front office responded to the loss of Ronald Acuña Jr. strongly by making the roster better. While they made some lower-key additions at the trade deadline – like Joc Pederson – the offense has rebounded in a strong way. Freddie Freeman is hitting like an MVP winner again, while Ozzie Albies, Dansby Swanson, and Austin Riley have all been big pluses.
However, the biggest reason to back the Braves in September (and potentially October) is going to be the rotation. It’s been a weak point for the team all season, but as Max Friend and Charlie Morton have started pitching well again, Huascar Ynoa and Ian Anderson have gotten healthy again.
Speaking of Anderson: He’s the starting pitcher at Coors today.
Before he got hurt, Anderson was one of the more promising young pitchers in MLB. He posted unreal numbers in the shortened 2020 season, but he has been the epitome of consistency this season. Anderson has made 19 starts this year while averaging 5 1/3 innings per start and posting a 3.36 ERA.
More importantly, Anderson picked up right where he left off. He made his first start in almost two months last Saturday, and he pitched 5 2/3 scoreless frames while allowing just one hit.
Anderson is going to attack you with a high 90s fastball, and then he’ll mess up your timing with a changeup. Both pitches have produced a -9 Run Value this season, although the Changeup has held opponents to a BA under .200.
Colorado Rockies Starting Lineups
- LF Raimel Tapia L
- 2B B. Rodgers R
- RF C. Blackmon L
- SS Trevor Story R
- 3B Ryan McMahon L
- 1B C.J. Cron R
- C Elias Diaz R
- CF Sam Hilliard L
- P G. Marquez R
Colorado Rockies Analysis
The story of the Colorado Rockies this season is well-known: They are one of the best teams in MLB at Coors Field, but they’re also one of the worst away from Mile High.
The question is: Why?
While the home/road batting splits are baffling, the answer is really because of the starting pitching staff. Somehow, inexplicably, the Rockies starting pitching staff has figured out run prevention at the highest-scoring park in the league.
Enter today’s starter: German Marquez.
Historically, Marquez has proven he’s a good pitcher because of his performances away from the thin air, wherein he’s posted a sub-1.00 WHIP on the road over the past three seasons. However, he’s completely flipped the script this season, posting a 3.13 ERA at home compared to a 5.37 ERA on the road.
A 3.13 ERA doesn’t pop off the page. But, considering the circumstances, it’s an incredible feat. To that point, the Rockies are 12-2 in Marquez’s home starts this season.
Atlanta Braves vs. Colorado Rockies Daily Fantasy Analysis
For DFS lineups today, I’m targeting two Braves:
First, Austin Riley. Riley’s 10-for-27 over the past week and has knocked in five RBIs in that span. Plus, he went 2-for-4 with a double at Coors on Wednesday.
Second, I’d look at Jorge Soler. Over the past week, Soler has posted a 1.154 OPS and a 201 wRC+. Of his nine hits in that span, four of them have been home runs. Look for this hard hitter to torch another ball in this Saturday night contest.
Atlanta Braves vs. Colorado Rockies Betting Analysis
Because of the Rockies starting pitching successes and the fact bookmakers continue to jack the totals at Coors Field, first, five innings under have been hot when the Rockies play at home.
In fact, the Rockies are 38-26-2 to the first five innings under at home this season. Given the starting pitching matchup today, I’m happy to follow that trend.
Marquez should continue to have success in his dojo, while Anderson should continue to build momentum after his great first start off the IL. Plus, Anderson’s posted a lower road ERA (3.16) than home ERA (3.58) this season.
DraftKings currently has the first five innings line set at 5.5, and I’ll happily take the under posted at even money.
