Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies (10/14/22) Starting Lineup, Odds, Prediction

The Braves evened up their series against the Phillies in Game 2, winning behind a 6th inning rally and excellent pitching. As the series shifts to Philadelphia, where a raucous crowd awaits, can the Braves get the road win they need?

Let’s take a look at starting lineups, betting odds, and predictions for Friday’s game at Citizens Bank Park.

Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies Betting Odds

The Phillies are slight home favorites at -124 on the moneyline, with the over/under set at 7 runs.

Though the Braves were able to get past one ace in Game 2, the combination of Aaron Nola and the Phillies’ first postseason home game since 2011 has oddsmakers more confident in Philadelphia. Could Ronald Acuna Jr.’s uncertain status also be a factor?

Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Picks & Prediction

My pick: Phillies Moneyline (-124)

It’s tough to envision the Phillies losing with both aces on the mound, especially with a wild atmosphere expected in Philadelphia. I expect a better day from the Phillies’ offense, including some more power, regardless of who takes the mound for the Braves. Atlanta isn’t a bad value if Spencer Strider gets the ball, but the long layoff for the rookie leaves me more confident in the Phillies.

Atlanta Braves Starting Lineup

RF R. Acuna R
SS D. Swanson R
CF M. Harris L
3B A. Riley R
1B M. Olson L
DH W. Contreras R
C T. d’Arnaud R
2B O. Arcia R
LF R. Grossman S

Atlanta Braves vs. Aaron Nola

Aaron Nola has been outstanding lately, finishing off the season by taking a perfect game into the 7th inning and following it up with a dominant start against the Cardinals in the Wild Card Round. Nola was a workhorse this season, posting a 3.25 ERA over 32 starts (205 IP).

Nola had an impressive 2.58 FIP and 0.96 WHIP, along with an NL-best 1.3 BB/9 rate. Somehow, the Phillies only went 15-17 in Nola’s starts. That’s something to remember, especially after they couldn’t score for Wheeler in Game 2.

The Braves have 9 runs in two NLDS games, which is about what you’d expect. Even when Wheeler was at his best on Wednesday, Atlanta started making contact in the 6th inning and got some lucky bounces. It’ll be worth monitoring Acuna’s status after Brian Snitker wouldn’t commit either way on Thursday. Acuna suffered an arm injury in Game 2.

Fortunately for the Phillies, Nola rarely gives teams free baserunners. He has some of the best control in the league and will force the Braves to hit their way to a win. Nola was a mixed bag against the Braves this season, with two strong starts and three rough outings.

While the Braves have one of the deepest lineups in baseball and had the league’s second-highest OPS this season, Nola has looked like a big-game pitcher of late. Adrenaline will be flowing as Philadelphia welcomes back postseason baseball, and that should be a good thing for Nola.

Philadelphia Phillies Starting Lineup

LF K. Schwarber L
1B R. Hoskins R
3B A. Bohm R
DH B. Harper L
C J. Realmuto R
RF N. Castellanos R
2B J. Segura R
CF M. Vierling R
SS B. Stott L

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Spencer Strider

Brian Snitker is waiting until the last minute to name the Braves’ starting pitcher for Game 3, but it’ll likely be either Spencer Strider or Charlie Morton. If Strider doesn’t start, it’s possible he could still pitch in relief as the Braves assess where he is after missing some time with an oblique injury.

Despite the age gap, Strider and Morton have one similar skill: strikeouts. Both generate swings-and-misses more than most pitchers – in Strider’s case, more than any pitcher. Morton struggled to a 4.31 ERA this season and had a tough time battling home run issues, but he has a track record of postseason success. Strider had an excellent rookie year, posting a 2.67 ERA and 1.83 FIP over 131.2 IP while averaging 13.8 K/9.

The Phillies’ offense came back to Earth in Game 2, struggling all night against Kyle Wright and Atlanta’s bullpen. If we see Morton in this game, home runs might be Philadelphia’s best bet to win, but it’s worth noting we’ve only seen one Phillies home run in four postseason games. In the regular season, the Phillies finished 8th in the league with a .735 OPS. They should be hitting more home runs, and there’s a chance playing in their home ballpark will change their fortune.