Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings Matchup Preview 9/8/19: Analysis, Depth Charts, Betting Picks, Daily Fantasy

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Two teams that had disappointing seasons in comparison to the last few seasons will try and bounce back. The NFC is loaded with talent, and both of these teams play within two of the tougher division in football. This is a crucial game for both sides, as wins will be important when both divisions and wild card races will be tight. Injuries hurt both these teams last season. Atlanta lost a few defensive weapons early in the year, and could not make up for it. The Vikings offensive line struggled, which didn’t give the run game much room, nor Kirk Cousins much time. Coming into this season in a better situation, some positive regression is expected on both sides. For odds line movement, and full matchup history, see the Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings Matchup Page.

TV Schedule

Date: Sunday, September 8th, 2019
Time: 1:00 ET
Location: US Bank Stadium – Minneapolis, MN
Coverage: FOX

Injury Report

Atlanta Falcons: Julio Jones (Contract Dispute?)
Minnesota Vikings: Stefon Diggs (Q)

Atlanta Falcons Analysis

Adam Schefter reported that Julio Jones was uncertain for Sunday with a potential holdout. This doesn’t seem to be as serious as Gordon and Elliot’s demands, but is something to note. I’ll anticipate Jones suiting up this Sunday, but of course Calvin Ridley and Mohamed Sanu would get a bump with him out. Austin Hooper would also draw some more targets. The passing attack has been one of the best over recent years, and will get a pass defense that ranked 5th last season. Tough matchup for this group on the road, and Jones will expect to see Xavier Rhodes for most of the game. Minnesota was surprisingly bad against tight ends last season, ranking 30th. Hooper might see a few extra looks.

The offensive line was focused on in the draft, and they will have their hands full against a Minnesota front seven. Devonta Freeman is back and fully healthy, as many are expecting a rebound year. Myself included. Freeman should have a strong workload with no Tevin Coleman, and Ito Smith hasn’t exactly gotten much love in the number two role. Minnesota ranked 27th against pass-catching backs, which is where I could see Freeman getting his value in this week.

Atlanta Falcons Depth Chart

QB: Matt Ryan
RB1: Devonta Freeman
RB2: Ito Smith
WR1: Julio Jones
WR2: Calvin Ridley
WR3: Mohamed Sanu
TE: Austin Hooper

Minnesota Vikings Analysis

In a similar circumstance, the Vikings have their star running back healthy. Dalvin Cook is set for a big year if he can stay healthy, and whenever he has been, he has flashed big potential. Atlanta will get back some key defensive pieces, so the 30th ranked rush defense is a bit of a stretch from last season. However, Atlanta’s struggle against backs in the passing game has been exploitable the last few seasons. 2018 was no different, ranking 28th, allowing 8.8 attempts, and 61.5 receiving yards per game. Cook has potential for 100+ all-purpose yards and one of the higher ceilings of Week 1 for running backs. He also doesn’t have a ton of competition behind him, as Mattison is more of a depth option.

Kirk Cousins didn’t have a bad year last season, although listening to the public, you’d think otherwise. Some better offensive line play should get Cousins to a more consistent mark, which was tough to do last season. He has plenty of weapons, as Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen step in as his main guy. Minnesota will commit to the run, as they have been vocal about doing so. This shouldn’t hurt the upside of these guys, as it could benefit if it leads to more efficiency and keeping balances off foot.

Minnesota Vikings Depth Chart

QB: Kirk Cousins
RB1: Dalvin Cook
RB2: Alexander Mattison
WR1: Stefon Diggs
WR2: Chad Beebe
WR3: Adam Thielen
TE: Kyle Rudolph

Betting Pick: Minnesota -4

The Lineups Bet Predictor has their eyes set on the Vikings, with a win probability at 64%. It is also leaning on the over, which is set at 47.5 at the moment. This is a close game on paper, but the Vikings were a solid spread team. They had a 10-6 record ATS, and were 4-2 at home. When the spread was in this range, the Vikings covered 70% of the time. The Falcons were 6-6 in the same range. Despite the defenses this game stands a chance to put up some points given the weapons on the offensive side. This game also projects to be close, and I don’t feel quite as good as the predictor about the Vikings at 64%.

Daily Fantasy: Capitalize On Mismatches

There are spots to pick within this game even with the defenses having some key defenders. Adam Thielen is someone to keep an eye on if Stefon Diggs has a setback with the hamstring, which is already giving him trouble to start the year. His lines without Diggs have been huge. As mentioned above, pass-catching backs have had their way against Atlanta. Dalvin Cook is far too cheap on most sites around the industry, and is a strong cash game play for Week 1. On the other side, the Atlanta passing game is targetable in GPPs. I’m not targeting Freeman given the tough matchup, and there isn’t quite enough value if he does pop off some plays in the passing game. Calvin Ridley and Julio Jones are the targets from this group, and mainly just because of the ownership being low in comparison to where we usually get them.