Get Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints player prop picks & odds for the (1/7/24) matchup
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Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints Player Prop Picks
The Falcons and Saints square off on Sunday in a crucial game for NFL playoff positioning. In this article, I’ll cover some of the player props in this game that I believe offer the most value. As always, be sure to use the player prop search tool above to make sure you’re getting the best available odds as they can vary significantly across different books. Let’s get to work.
Bijan Robinson Over 81.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115 BetMGM)
Here we go again. Bijan Robinson has been excellent this season by all advanced metrics, but it’s been tough to trust him with how sporadic his usage has been due to Arthur Smith seemingly out thinking himself at every turn. However, Robinson has played on 75+% of snaps and should see at least 18 touches in this game as he has in five of his last seven games.
The Saints’ run defense started the year mediocre and has been even worse in recent weeks with the fifth-most rushing yards per game allowed. Robinson ranks 6th in the NFL with 51 missed tackles forced and has averaged an impressive 3.13 yards after contact per attempt per PFF. He’s in great position to hurt this Saints defense.
This might be Arthur Smith’s last game as the Falcons head coach. Will he finally force feed his team’s best player and use Robinson the way most imagined when they drafted him in the first round? I say yes, and I’m betting on him excelling in this matchup against the Saints’ 25th-ranked run defense by DVOA.
Kyle Pitts Over 32.5 Receiving Yards (-110 DraftKings)
Along with Bijan Robinson, let’s go out swinging on this Falcons team and bet on another player who Arthur Smith has given sporadic usage this season. Kyle Pitts is trending up to close out the season, and while he had a quiet game last week, he had 35+ receiving yards in four straight games prior.
The Saints are a strong matchup to target for tight ends as they have allowed the 11th-most receiving yards to the position since Week 8. They’ve also allowed the 5th-most receiving touchdowns to tight ends since Week 8, so Pitts is a solid bet to find the end zone at +375 odds on PointsBet. Make sure you’re shopping around for the best odds on that one.
Juwan Johnson Anytime Touchdown (+290 PointsBet)
While he entered the week listed as questionable, Juwan Johnson should be good to go this week, and he’s been playing awesome football lately. He’s averaging 58.6 receiving yards per game over the last three weeks and has scored in every one of those games. Since Week 15, Johnson has a 20.4% target share and a 26.8% air yard share.
The Falcons have allowed the fifth-most receiving yards per game to tight ends this season, and Johnson had four catches for 45 yards against the Saints earlier this season. I’d be very interested in Johnson’s receiving yardage prop in this game, but that hasn’t been posted yet. Still, I love him to find the end zone for a fourth straight week, especially if you’re getting the +290 odds on PointsBet.