Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Matchup Preview (12/20/20): Betting Odds, Depth Charts, Live Stream (Watch Online)

Matt Ryan vs. Tom Brady. These quarterbacks met less than three years ago in one of the most memorable Super Bowls of all time. A 25 point lead was erased in less than 2 quarters, and the entire world watched it happen. Several seasons later and these quarterbacks sit in very different situations. Matt Ryan’s offensive powerhouse subsided, and his team is a measly 4-9. Tom Brady is on an entirely different team. In one of the most anticipated offseason moves in years, Brady left his cold home in New England to fly south to warm-weathered Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers are now 8-5 and set to make the playoffs.

In a rematch of quarterbacks that fought in the biggest stage, expect each to play with a chip on their shoulder. Ryan wants an upset win that takes revenge on the loss, while Brady wants to earn a better playoff seed. Different mindsets, same goal: win this football game.

For odds movement and full matchup history, visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons Matchup Page.

TV Schedule

Date: December 20th, 2020
Time: 1:00 PM ET
Location: Mercedes-Benz, Stadium
TV Coverage: FOX

Falcons vs. Buccaneers Live Stream

Where can you watch Falcons vs. Buccaneers online? You can stream this game, and many other NFL games live online with Hulu. Hulu has a 7 Day free trial and is cheaper than cable options at $5.99/month. Watch Falcons vs. Buccaneers Free Online Now.

Injuries

Atlanta Falcons:
IR list: Demontae Kazee (achilles), Olamide Zaccheaus (toe), Jordan Miller* (oblique). Out: Ricardo Allen (concussion), Darqueze Dennard (quadriceps), Marlon Davidson (knee), Julio Jones (hamstring). Questionable: James Carpenter (groin), Kaleb McGary (personal).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
IR list: John Franklin (knee), O.J. Howard (achilles), A.Q. Shipley (neck), T.J. Logan (knee), Vita Vea (leg), Donovan Smith (covid), Ronald Jones (covid). Justin Evans (foot).

Atlanta Falcons Analysis

The Falcons are nothing short of a mess. Earlier this year, they became the first team in NFL history to ever lose two games with a 15+ point lead in a single season. They did it in back-to-back weeks, too (week 2 and week 3). Their record is unsurprisingly just 4-9. To make things worse, they have the oldest roster in the league with an average player age of 26.9. An aging team and a losing record spell a disastrous future if management can’t make changes this offseason.

Quarterback Matt Ryan is not having one of the better seasons in his career. He has a fair amount of yardage with 3660 through the air (6th), but he only has tallied 19 touchdowns (16th) and 11 interceptions (5th most). His quarterback rating of 89.3 is set to be his lowest since 2015. Last week was no exception to Ryan’s bad year. He threw 3 interceptions in the upset loss to the Chargers. The Buccaneers have a very strong defense, so I don’t expect him to turn things around this game.

The Falcon’s receiving core, however, is very strong. Superstar Julio Jones needs no introduction, but his stats are worth a discussion. He is averaging 5.67 receptions and 85 yards per game. But this season has been riddled with injuries for the pro bowler. That includes this week, in which he has already been ruled out with a hamstring injury. Ryan will have to rely more on Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage. In their last game without Jones, the two combined for 206 yards and a touchdown. Ryan should not have a problem finding options without his star receiver.

The run game of this team is non-threatening. Rushing for just 98.3 yards per game, Atlanta ranks 25th in the league. The last game was no exception. Ito Smith and Todd Gurley led the team’s ugly 70 total ground yards. The rush game could quickly become ugly in this game against the league’s best-run defense.

The mix between a decent passing game and essentially non-existent rushing attack has given Atlanta a very average offense. They travel 367.2 yards (15th) and score 25.2 points (16th) per game. In most offensive statistics, Atlanta similarly ranks near the middle of the league, but not in Red Zone scoring. The Falcons only score on 48.94% of visits, which ranks 31st in the league. This scoring struggle might cause them problems against a Tampa Bay defense that allows a touchdown score on 61.9% of visits (16th).

The Atlanta defense is far worse than their offense. They allow 390.6 yards (28th) and 24.8 points (16th) per game. It is worth noting they allow a touchdown on 68.18% of RedZone visits, the 4th most in the league. They do, however, perform nicely on third down. They allow a conversion on third just 40.37% of the time (14th). Their rush pass defense is significantly worse than their ground defense. While they rank top 10 against the run, they allow 281.8 yards through the air (30th). Tom Brady should have no problem picking apart their secondary.

The Falcons are far away from becoming a winning team they once were. The roster is aging, the team is losing, and there are few points of strength to be optimistic about. With playoff hopes diminished, Falcons fans are only looking for hope. It’s unclear whether that hope will arrive this season, especially in this week’s matchup. The Buccaneers are a solid team with strength on offense and defense. It is unlikely they pick up a win this weekend.

Atlanta Falcons Depth Chart

QB: Matt Ryan
RB1: Todd Gurley
RB2: Ito Smith
WR1: Julio Jones
WR2: Calvin Ridley
WR3: Russell Gage
TE: Hayden Hurst

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Analysis

Unlike the Falcons, the Buccaneers are having a great year. They are just one win away from securing their first winning season since 2016 and their second winning season since 2011. The signing of head coach Bruce Arians in 2019 and Tom Brady entering this season has clearly made life better in Tampa. They are winning games consistently and playing sound football. Even their penalties have gone down. Last year Tampa Bay was the most penalized team in the league (8.3 per game), and now they see just 5.5 flags per game (12th). The Buccaneers are simply playing winning football.

There is no doubt that signing Tom Brady has played a role in the team’s success. The future Hall of Famer is having yet another outstanding season. He has thrown 3496 yards (11th), 30 touchdowns (4th), for a QB rating of 96.3 (13th). He has a turnover issue that needs to be fixed, though, with 11 interceptions on the year (5th). Brady is coming off a clean; however, they completed 15 of 23 passes for 196 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions. He will look to take advantage of a weak Atlanta secondary that allows 281.8 passing yards per game (30th).

The Buccaneers receiving core is arguably the best in the league. Mike Evans needs 331 more receiving yards in his next 3 games to break Jerry Rice’s record of most consecutive 1000 yard seasons receiving to start a career. He is currently tied with Rice at 6. It’s unlikely Evans reaches the mark but entirely possible. Evans also has 51 receptions (38th) and 11 touchdowns (4th). His teammate, Chris Godwin, is having an even better year. The pro bowl receiver has 51 receptions (38th) for 587 yards (53rd) but just 3 touchdowns. These are numbers only a select few number two receivers would put up, and Godwin is one of them. Expect this talented duo to rack up plenty of yardage in this matchup against a poor Atlanta secondary.

The run game has been less impressive. Tampa Bay ranks 26th with just 97.2 ground yards per game. Running back Ronald Jones II is actually having a great year, however. He has 900 yards (5th) and 6 touchdowns (13th), both ranking top 15 in the league. The problem with this run game is that the Buccaneers don’t have a second running back that’s been playing well in his snaps. This issue will become especially prevalent on Sunday, as Ronald Jones II is not expected to play. Leonard Fournette is the backup and has not been playing very well this year. He averages just 3.9 yards per attempt in the few opportunities he’s been given. I don’t see him turning things around against an Atlanta defense that ranks top against the run.

The combination of Tampa Bay’s strong passing attack but poor rushing makes them an above-average offense. They may travel just 358.2 yards (17th), but they score 28.5 points (6th) per game. They play especially well in the RedZone, scoring on 70.83% of trips (6th). They convert 43.12% of third downs, which ranks 11th in the league. By any measure, it will be tough for Atlanta to stop.

The Buccaneers’ defense has been elite this year, particularly against the run. They allow just 80.9 ground yards per game, the fewest in the league. A speedy linebacker crew of Lavonte David, Devin White, and Jason Pierre-Paul has been able to shut down the opposing team’s rush attempts all season long. The Falcons run game has never been strong this season, but consider them absolutely irrelevant in this matchup.

Tampa Bay’s pass defense is not as strong but still above average in my view. They may allow 249.4 passing yards (21st) per game, but that’s largely because they are one of the most passed against teams in the league. With 37.9 pass attempts against them per game, they rank 5th most in the league. In terms of yards per pass attempt, Tampa Bay ranks high. They allow opposing quarterbacks to throw for just 6.6 yards per pass attempt, the 10th fewest in the league. Matt Ryan may rack up plenty of yardages, but he’ll need many attempts to get there.

Tampa Bay should be considered an intimidating team to face in the playoffs. With both a strong offense and defense, they are a nightmare for any opposing head coach game-planning against them. Tom Brady has already proven to the world he is among the best in the league and possesses a unique clutch ability that few others hold. In this matchup against a struggling Atlanta team, look for Tampa Bay to earn a statement win.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Depth Chart

QB: Tom Brady
RB1: Ronald Jones
RB2: Leonard Fournette
WR1: Mike Evans
WR2: Chris Godwin
WR3: Justin Watson
TE: Rob Gronkowski

Betting Corner: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6

Spread: -6 Buccaneers
Moneyline: -275 Buccaneers, +235 Falcons
Over/Under: 48.5

Prediction

Spread: -6 Buccaneers
Moneyline: -275 Buccaneers
Over/Under: Over

I’m taking the Buccaneers both outright and against the spread. Tampa Bay at 8-5 against the spread has been of the safest bets all year. Inversely, Atlanta is just 5-8 against the spread in their very disappointing season. The Falcons offense, the strongest area of their team, will struggle to score points against one of the best defenses in the league. Tom Brady, meanwhile, will be able to take advantage of a weak Falcon’s secondary. I am predicting a statline for him of 300 yards, 3 touchdowns, no picks. Final Score Prediction: 31-20 Buccaneers on top.

Daily Fantasy Love/Hate

Love: Tom Brady

Like I just mentioned in my betting predictions, I think Brady will have a great game. The Atlanta secondary is among the worst in the league in terms of passing yards allowed per game (281.8), but even more notably, they are ranked 32nd against opposing quarterbacks in fantasy. There is no reason to believe that Brady won’t be able to take advantage of this matchup. Start Brady in season-long and daily leagues.

Hate: Todd Gurley II

Todd Gurley II and the Falcon’s run game has been a disaster this year. Last week Gurley and Smith, the two lead backs, combined for 9.1 fantasy points. In Gurley’s last three games, he has averaged just 3.3 fantasy points. It’s been rough for the 2017 offensive player of the year. To make things worse, Gurley still has to face the Buccaneers’ first ranked rushing defense after this week. Gurley does not need to be even rostered until next year.