Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers kicks off this Sunday at 1:10pm EST in Tampa Florida as a home game for the Buccaneers. The Falcons are currently a +2.5 underdog and +120 on the moneyline while the total is set at 37.5. Correlating a low total with the likes of Baker Mayfield, Rachaad White, and Desmond Ridder, expect plenty of unders as valuable player props for this Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers matchup.
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After being pegged as a popular sleeper pick to win their own division, the Atlanta Falcons have severely underwhelmed at this point of the season. A mixture of poor coaching and horrific quarterback play has sunk this offense, being too much of a burden for their defense to overcome. As for the Bucs, they crashed back down to reality after facing the Lions, folding under the Lions defensive pressure. Expect plenty of stalled out drives and poor offense in this contest, giving value towards player prop unders.
Rachaad White Under 48.5 Rushing Yards
New year, same rushing struggles for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. After ranking near dead last in Rush DVOA behind a stable of Leonard Fournette and Rachaad White last season, the Bucs thought they would find addition by subtraction by letting go of Fournette and turning White into a three down back.
While that has given Tampa Bay another pass catcher in the backfield, it has not improved their rushing metrics whatsoever at this point of the season. Tampa’s ground game currently ranks 28th in Rush DVOA, 31st in Rush Success Rate, and 29th in Rush EPA. Simply put, the ground game is anemic in all positions of the field.
Expect those same struggles to appear in this matchup as the Bucs now have to go against a Falcons rush defense who currently ranks first in Def Rush EPA, 11th in Def Rush Success Rate, and ninth in Def Rush DVOA. A brunt of their Def Rush Success comes from their ability to collapse the pocket with their front four, allowing the linebackers to sit back and plug the gaps at the line.
That’s a major issue for the Bucs offensive line as they rank 31st in Adjusted Line Yards and are prone to getting pushed back from the snap. As it was shown against the Lions, the pressure created from a stout defensive line is able to completely shut down the Bucs ground game as White struggles to generate success in clogged rushing lanes.
Baker Mayfield Under 221.5 Passing Yards
Correlating this prop with the previously mentioned breakdown of their ground game, expect Baker Mayfield to struggle once again as his production regresses back towards the expected mean. Hardly to any fault of his own as his offensive line does him no favors by not being able to protect him in the pocket.
Baker Mayfield sheesh x3 pic.twitter.com/ccjFeG4dbk
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) October 16, 2023
Especially with the Falcons being able to generate Pressure at the third highest rate while calling a low dose of the blitz, being able to collapse the pocket and drop their second level back in coverage. Not only will Mayfield be under constant pressure but now he has to throw into covered passing lanes while getting the ball out of his hands faster than anticipated.
Baker Mayfield Under 34.5 Longest Completion
A direct factor towards getting the ball out of Baker Mayfield’s hands faster than normal is that the Bucs pass attack will revert back to shorter throws than connecting on the big play. This is in direct correlation to their injury riddled offensive line collapsing against the Falcons front four pressure, having to get the ball out of his hands quickly or scramble in an attempt to keep the play alive.
The issue in this scheme is that it will be very tough for Mike Evans and Chris Godwin to consistently create separation right away in a limited time frame. That lessens the quality of the passing lane as well as keeps a defender nearby to get tackled right away. All factors towards limiting the big gain in order for this prop to hit.
Desmond Ridder Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
It’s a shame how much this Falcons offense has struggled as all of the blame can be pointed towards their quarterback Desmond Ridder. Ranked dead last in PFF Offense Grade, failing to find any sort of consistency in the pocket as he routinely misses his receivers in stride. In a game where points may come at a premium, the Falcons would be better off handing it to Bijan Robinson than to continue to trust Ridder in the few instances that they are in scoring position.