Atlanta Hawks vs Dallas Mavericks: Prediction, Starting Lineups, Odds (1/18/23)

Dallas to take on the Mavericks. This game features two bright young stars in Trae Young and Luka Doncic who are both elite talents in their own right. It hasn’t been a successful season as either team have hoped for at this point going into it, but there is plenty of time to turn it around. Who will get the win in this mega battle against two budding point guards?

Atlanta Hawks vs Dallas Mavericks Betting Odds

Oddsmakers believe it will be the Mavericks who get back on track in the midst of a two-game losing streak, opening Dallas as a -3.5 favorite. Bettors are tempering their expectations and leaning towards the road team, taking Atlanta down to +2. The Mavericks are currently dealing with injury issues that are limiting their amount of depth, as well as reeling in both offensive and defensive production metrics. While Atlanta has struggled on offense early in the season, the Mavs Swiss cheese defense will give them opportunities for quality looks.

Speaking of offense, points are expected to be scored in a flash as oddsmakers opened the total at 232.5. Bettors are in agreement with oddsmakers, taking the total up to 233.5 in some shops as of writing. This comes as no surprise as the Hawks offense has been clicking during their win streak, a sharp contrast to what we saw earlier in the season when they lacked a perimeter presence. The Mavs defense presents an opportunity for the Hawks to continue to find shooting success.

Atlanta Hawks vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction

The Pick: Over 233

With that said, I will back the over as points should be scored at a consistent rate on both ends of the court. As mentioned earlier, the Atlanta Hawks are playing at a much higher level in comparison to earlier this season. Adjusting to a whole new identity took awhile as they lacked continuity, resulting in clunky and forced possessions that ended up in empty trips and scoring lulls.

They still have a ways to go as they only run about average in the league in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency per TeamRankings, but the improvement is encouraging nonetheless. This is heavily correlated to the success of the duo of Trae Young and new piece Dejounte Murray as they run the show. This new dynamic took a bit to click, but the increase in facilitation has helped ball movement and create high quality looks at the rim.

This is a stark difference to their past identity as Trae Young was the sole facilitator as the offense ran through him. Whether he created his own shot, or drove to the rim for kick outs, he had to do it himself. Finding himself in an off-ball position is different, but he has managed to make it work as his numbers are steadily increasing.

Betting Trends

• Hawks are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings in Dallas
• Under is 6-2 in their last eight meetings against each other
• Hawks are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 meetings against each other

Key Matchups

Can Luka’s heavy usage continue to give high scoring results?

Luka Doncic vs Hawks interior defense

The Mavericks’ success lives and dies with the production of Luka Doncic. His usage is at an all time high, currently on pace for one of the highest usage rates in NBA league history. While it certainly helps that he is playing at an MVP level, it also hurts the team when he runs cold.

The Hawks defense has drastically improved when compared to years past, anchoring the paint with length. They are still susceptible to perimeter play, leaving the three open for the Mavs to exploit. This plays in Dallas’ hands as they shoot the three at a heavy rate.

Verdict

Take the over in what will be a thrilling high scoring affair as the Hawks offense continues to find success against a weak Mavs defense.

Atlanta Hawks Starting Lineup

PG: Trae Young
SG: Dejounte Murray
SF: De’Andre Hunter
PF: John Collins
C: Onyeka Okongwu

Dallas Mavericks Starting Lineups

PG: Luka Doncic
SG: Spencer Dinwiddie
SF: Dorian Finney-Smith
PF: Reggie Bullock
C: Christian Wood

Key Injuries

Atlanta Hawks Injuries: N/A

Dallas Mavericks Injuries: Luka Doncic (P), McKinley Wright IV (O), Tim Hardaway Jr (O), Dorian Finney-Smith (P), Josh Green (P), Maxi Kleber (O)