Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat Preview (3/4/23): Prediction, Starting Lineups, Odds

After dropping six of their past seven games, the Miami Heat will look to turn things around when they host the Atlanta Hawks. Check out our betting predictions below, as well as the updated betting odds, key matchups, starting lineups, and injury reports for both teams!

Atlanta Hawks Vs. Miami Heat Betting Odds

Miami is a 1.5-point favorite against the Atlanta Hawks on Saturday. The Heat will again miss their starting point guard, Kyle Lowry, while Omer Yurtseven and Nikola Jovic are also listed as out.

The Hawks have remained healthy for most of this season and have no listed injuries ahead of this conference battle.

Atlanta Hawks Vs. Miami Heat Prediction

There is no way around it: Miami is in a bit of a free fall right now. The Heat have dropped six of their past seven games, shooting roughly 42% from the field and 30% from three in that stretch.

Sure, Miami is without its starting point guard Kyle Lowry, but at this point in his career, the difference between Lowry and backup Gabe Vincent is marginal, at best.

What could be so different that Miami falls from the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference last season to a team that could have a hard time making the playoffs this season? Interestingly enough, the answer is defense.

Offensive struggles have been a known constant for a while; however, the Heat’s defense has tumbled, ranking 21st in opponent 3P% (three-point percentage) and 25th in opponent eFG% (effective field goal percentage.) Even Bam Adebayo can’t save them on that end of the floor!

Meanwhile, Atlanta is fresh off firing head coach Nate McMillan; the search for a new head coach is well underway. McMillan’s absence will not singlehandedly mend this team’s obvious shortcomings, but perhaps, they can play a bit looser now.

If the Hawks want a chance at sniffing the postseason, they will have to get better play from Trae Young, who has had his least efficient shooting season since his rookie year in the 2022-23 campaign.

For this game, I have to take the Hawks, though. There is simply no way I am backing a Heat team that consistently flirts with failing to eclipse 100 points. Atlanta is going to play with some pace and has put up some massive point totals recently, including 129 in its last game.

Even if the Hawks don’t play defense, there is no way Miami can keep up offensively with how it has been playing. Back Atlanta in this spot, especially considering Miami is the worst NBA team against the spread at home (8-21-2).

Betting Trends

• Atlanta is 14-17-1 ATS on the road in 2022-23
• Miami is 8-21-2 ATS at home in 2022-23
• The combined over record of these two teams is 65-62 in 2022-23

Key Matchups

Our key matchup of the game revolves around Trae Young and the Miami backcourt; they went head-to-head in last season’s playoffs, with the Heat defense ultimately emerging victorious. See which has an advantage in this matchup below!

Trae Young vs. Miami Backcourt

With Kyle Lowry set to miss yet another game for Miami, the Heat will have to throw a combination of Gabe Vincent, Victor Oladipo, and Tyler Herro at him. Will that trio be enough to stop one of the most prolific scoring guards in the NBA?

History tells us that the Heat have an advantage against opposing guards; their perimeter defense has been solid the past few years, despite a recent struggle in 2022-23. In Young’s past seven games against Miami, he has failed to eclipse 30 points.

As a matter of fact, he has merely averaged 17.6 points, 7.4 assists, and 4.7 rebounds on a 33/21/84 shooting split during that stretch! It should go without saying that those are abysmal numbers compared to his season averages.

Even with Miami’s issues on the defensive end of the floor this season, it has still done a terrific job against opposing points guards, allowing the third-fewest points in the NBA.

Frankly, this spells trouble for Young, as history is against him, and the recent output in his past handful of games has been sporadic and inconsistent. Advantage: Heat Backcourt.

Atlanta Hawks Starting Lineup

PG: Trae Young
SG: Dejounte Murray
SF: De’Andre Hunter
PF: John Collins
C: Clint Capela

Miami Heat Starting Lineups

PG: Gabe Vincent
SG: Tyler Herro
SF: Jimmy Butler
PF: Kevin Love
C: Bam Adebayo

Key Injuries

Atlanta Hawks Injuries: None

Miami Heat Injuries: Omer Yurtseven (Out), Nikola Jovic (Out), Kyle Lowry (Out)