Atlanta Hawks vs New York Knicks: Prediction, Starting Lineups, Odds (12/7/22)

In what was one of my favorite playoff series in some time, the Atlanta Hawks once again battle the New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden in what will be an electric atmosphere. No one has quite captivated the crowd into a frenzy like Trae Young did, cementing himself as an all-time villain to New York. Can the Knicks get their revenge? Or will Young continue to torture this fanbase?

Atlanta Hawks vs New York Knicks Betting Odds

Oddsmakers lean slightly towards the Knicks, opening them as -2 favorites. Bettors on the other hand have sided towards the Hawks, taking them to as low as +1.5 as of writing. This matchup is interesting this time around as the Hawks offense is adjusting with new faces and will be without key big man John Collins, an area that the Knicks can continually exploit.

As for the total, this is where it gets interesting. Oddsmakers have this as a high scoring affair, opening the total at 231.5 with bettors in agreement by taking this up to as high as 233 in some shops. The movement is interesting as both offenses have struggled so far into the season with both defenses having key advantages.

Atlanta Hawks vs New York Knicks Prediction

The Pick: Under 233

With that said, I am going against the line movement and taking the under. This line simply does not make sense to me as neither unit has shown to score at a consistently high level. Both the Hawks and Knicks average less than 115 points per game and are very poor shooting units from deep.

The Knicks especially, shooting at a league low 31.3% from three. This has resulted in a below average rating in Offensive Efficiency that leads to stalled out possessions and poor-quality shot selections. Worse yet, they now go against an elite perimeter defense in the Hawks that will give them no favors in open looks from deep.

Even without big man John Collins athleticism down low, the Knicks have struggled to score underneath the arc with opposing defenses being allowed to collapse on them. If Julius Randle remains inconsistent, then the Knicks are in for a long night of trying to generate scoring production.

As for the Hawks, this isn’t the same scoring offense that we have seen over recent years. Normally playing a more modern style of play with executing from deep, their perimeter shooting has fallen off a cliff this season. Like the Knicks, the Hawks have completed their perimeter shots at one of the lowest rates in the league.

Betting Trends

• Under is 6-1 in Knicks last 7 games vs a team with a winning record
• Under is 4-1 in Hawks last five games following an ATS loss

Key Matchups

Can the Knicks take advantage of their size advantage and attack the rim?

Knicks low post scoring vs Hawks defense

The Hawks take a major blow in size and athleticism with John Collins absence. While they still have Clint Capela to smother opposing big men, they open up opportunities for opposing offenses to attack the paint with the lack of another down low presence.

This opens up the door for new acquisition Jalen Brunson to attack the paint with his driving abilities. While they have proven to be inefficient from three, the Knicks best option is to allow Brunson to drive and either create his own high quality shot or to distribute to an open man as the defense collapses.

Trae Young has struggled to defend and will need to be locked in to slow down Brunson’s offensive ability. A pick and roll with Randle and Brunson may prove efficient as this draws out the Hawks size and allows their secondary scorers to make cuts or find the opening for more efficient looks.

Verdict

With both offenses reeling and each other’s defenses having key advantages to limit scoring production, I will take the under in what will be an ugly shooting affair.

Atlanta Hawks Starting Lineup

PG: Trae Young
SG: Dejounte Murray
SF: AJ Griffin
PF: Jalen Johnson
C: Clint Capela

New York Knicks Starting Lineups

PG: Jalen Brunson
SG: Quentin Grimes
SF: RJ Barrett
PF: Julius Randle
C: Mitchell Robinson

Key Injuries

Atlanta Hawks Injuries: John Collins (O), De’Andre Hunter (O)

New York Knicks Injuries: Ryan Arcidiacono (D)