Auburn vs Penn State: Betting Odds, Picks, & Predictions (9/18/21)
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Auburn vs. Penn State Betting Odds
Both Auburn and Penn State come into this game 2-0 straight up (SU) against the spread (ATS) so far this season, although the Nittany Lions have done it in more impressive fashion.
Penn State pulled off one of the best Week 1 victories in all of college football, taking down Wisconsin as 5.5-point road underdogs. The defense was immense, especially in high-leverage situations, where they forced two red zone interceptions.
Meanwhile, Auburn cruised through Akron and Alabama State on their way to a 2-0 record. But Bo Nix and the offense will face their biggest test of the young season.
Penn State enters this game as 5.5-point favorites, and I think they may even be a little undervalued. Let’s dive into this Week 3 matchup.
Auburn Tigers Odds
It’s still very much Bo Nix season in Auburn.
The success of the football team is heavily reliant on the success of its dual-threat quarterback. And although Auburn is 14-9 SU and 15-8 ATS since he took over in 2019, his numbers have been more than iffy.
Through his first two seasons, Nix has yet to complete more than 59% of his passes or average more than 3.6 yards per carry. Luckily, the Tigers have a dangerous rush attack centered around Tank Bigsby, who rushed for 8.0 yards per carry last season and had the Tigers ranked 25th in Rushing Success Rate.
The defense is more than questionable. While they finished 23rd in the country in yards per play allowed in 2019, they fell all the way to 61st in that stat in 2020. Auburn does return most of its defensive reps from last season, so we’ll see if that unit can get back on track.
Penn State Odds
The Nittany Lions struggle to move the ball against Wisconsin was intriguing. They managed just 2.8 yards per carry and were outgained by Wisconsin 365 totally yards to 297.
However, what was on display was the explosiveness of this unit. Sam Clifford’s dime to Jahan Dotson in the third quarter was a thing of beauty:
Sean Clifford to Jahan Dotson, it’s a beautiful sight. pic.twitter.com/lufltClAwF
— Roar Lions Roar (@RLRblog) September 4, 2021
While that’s incredibly exciting, it’s going to be important for Penn State to establish a more balanced attack moving forward. Especially in the Big Ten.
Luckily for Clifford and the offense, the defense bailed them out in Week 1. Penn State’s defense was on the field for over 42 minutes against Wisconsin, while the Badgers ran 95 plays to the Nittany Lions 51.
Plus, while Wisconsin posted 29 first downs – to Penn State’s 11 – they converted just seven of their 22 third down opportunities. And the defense can cause Havoc, as they’ve already forced five turnovers through just two games this season.
The defense again showed out in Week 2, and I’d expect this unit to be one of the best in football for the rest of the season.
Prediction and Pick
My Pick: Penn State
I think Penn State should be favored by more than a touchdown in this spot.
Nix has been horrific on the road in his career. In road starts, Nix has completed just 54.5% of his passes while tossing 10 picks to just nine touchdowns. Meanwhile, he’s averaging just 2.3 yards rushing in those games.
The Penn State defense is so immense, that I don’t see the Tigers offense moving the ball at all. Auburn’s defense still has plenty of question marks, and their defensive splits have also been largely worse in road games.
Penn State may still have trouble moving the ball, but Clifford has shown the ability to bail them out in big situations. I’m looking for Penn State to move to 3-0 ATS on the season, and then turn their focus to Villanova before they start Big Ten conference play.
