Auburn vs Tennessee: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (2/26/22)

Auburn vs Tennessee Betting Odds

We’ve got three games left in the SEC regular season, and Auburn is barely holding on to the top spot in the conference. The Tigers still hold a one-game lead over Kentucky.

Auburn’s last two games come against Mississippi State and South Carolina, and both should be easy victories. But if Kentucky sweeps its final three games and Auburn drops this massive road contest in Knoxville, the Wildcats will be SEC regular-season champs.

It’s safe to say this is a monumentally important matchup.

Tennessee has an outside shot at the regular-season title, too. The Vols are still just two games back of Auburn in the standings. However, they’re mostly fighting for tournament seeding at this point.

But a win over Auburn could put Tennessee on the two-line – the Vols are currently projected as a three-seed.

But do Rick Barnes and co. have the firepower to compete with Auburn?

Auburn Tigers Odds

Safe to say that Auburn is mortal.

After a 10-0 start in SEC play, Auburn managed to drop road contests to Arkansas and Florida. Plus, the Tigers likely could’ve lost to Kentucky if the Wildcats’ two guards didn’t get hurt in the first half.

That doesn’t mean Auburn isn’t a top-tier basketball team. The Tigers are still deserving of a one-seed in the Big Dance.

It does mean that Auburn can be beaten. The two conference losses have a few similarities, but one glaring thing in common.

Auburn turned the ball over 19 times at Arkansas and 17 times at Florida, while simultaneously forcing only 11 turnovers in each game themselves.

Guards Wendell Green and KD Johnson aren’t ones to turn the ball over, and the rest of the team takes care of the ball. However, if you can press the ball and force mistakes, you can catch the Tigers off guard.

Additionally, both Arkansas and Florida got to the line a tremendous amount, and Auburn has been struggling with foul trouble this season – they rank 300th nationally in free-throw rate allowed and eighth in the conference.

It’s imperative to get to the line because this is a high-level defensive team – one that leads the SEC in effective field goal percentage allowed.

If you can’t force mistakes and make free throws, it’s impossible to beat Auburn. This is the most well-rounded team in the nation, and it’s led by a stud in Jabari Smith, who will be impossible to stop in March.

Tennessee Volunteers Odds

I’ve been rather impressed with Tennessee in the second half of the season.

The defense still carries the team. Speaking of teams that can force mistakes, Tennessee is fifth nationally in steal rate and third in the conference in defensive turnover rate. This is also a top-tier interior defensive team, as the Vols grade out above the 90th percentile in pick-and-roll PPP allowed, cutting PPP allowed, hand-off PPP allowed, and post-up PPP allowed.

The only weak spot is 3-point defense. Tennessee allows a ton of 3-point attempts and opponents are hitting at a fairly high rate. There could be some regression, but I wouldn’t expect much.

However, the defense isn’t a surprise. The offense has been spectacular.

Since the Texas loss, Tennessee has posted an adjusted offense score of 120 or better in every game except for a loss at Arkansas (where the Vols shot 4-for-24 from 3).

Kennedy Chandler has been scoring at a high clip but also recording a ton of assists. But Santiago Vescovi has transformed the Vols, as his shooting opens up the offense. He’s shooting 40% from 3 and scoring almost 1.1 PPP in spot-up opportunities.

Santiago Vescovi pulls up right in the defender's grill out of the triple threat. #NBADraft #Vols pic.twitter.com/jsowNaW958

— Caleb (@VolsAndDraft) February 23, 2022

With a combination of good offense and top-tier defense, Tennessee is a dark horse candidate to win the conference tournament. I’m scared of how the Vols match up with Kentucky, but I think they match up decent with their opponent today.

Auburn vs Tennessee Prediction and Pick

My pick: Over 139.5 (-110 at PointsBet)

Auburn and Tennessee are 5-0 to the over the last five times the two have played each other. I’m willing to back that trend one more time.

In all five of those matchups, the total closed at 141 or higher. So, we’re getting a discount on this number.

Tennessee’s offense has been trending up while its defense has been holding steady, if not trending down. Yet, the Vols are being priced like they’re still the best defense in the league.

Coach Barnes’ defense flails in big-time moments like this. And Auburn has so many ways to attack, that Auburn is going to put up points in this game.

Meanwhile, I’m looking for Tennessee to force turnovers and get out in transition. Tennessee doesn’t play fast, but Tennessee should want to turn the ball over and get buckets before Jabari Smith and Walker Kessler are set defensively. That way, the Vols will avoid opposing rim protection.

I don’t think this game finishes in the 60s, so give me the over at 141 or better.