The Baltimore Ravens face the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday (10/29/23). Get the latest betting odds for Ravens Vs. Cardinals as well as a full matchup preview. In addition, find our best bet which is the Ravens team total over 27.5 points.
Baltimore Ravens at Arizona Cardinals Prediction
When I first looked at this game, my initial thought was to fade the Ravens off their big 38-6 win over the Lions. After all, Lamar Jackson is 3-13 ATS as a favorite of over a field goal since 2021 – that’s the worst mark in the NFL. A letdown spot would be natural after a win of that magnitude regardless of the opponent.
However, this is a different Ravens team than previous versions. That Jackson ATS stat was primarily a factor of a hyper-conservative Greg Roman offense that ran the ball at one of the highest rates in the NFL. New offensive coordinator Todd Monken is beginning to implement a much more pass-heavy offense that’s producing impressive results.
Lamar Jackson could be embarking on his second MVP season in this offense. He’s coming off a stunning 21 of 27 passing performance with 357 yards and three touchdowns against the Lions. The offensive change took time to take shape as it was a dramatic transition, but this type of outburst had been coming.
I expect Jackson to keep the good times rolling this week against a hapless Cardinals defense that ranks 31st in DVOA. Arizona has gotten worse week by week, especially on the defensive end. New head coach Jonathan Gannon is doing the best he can with this defense, but they’re at a significant talent disadvantage.
I’m betting on the Ravens continuing to build offensive momentum in this game. The Cardinals rank 31st in passing success rate allowed, so Jackson should have another very productive afternoon. The Ravens don’t have to open up the full playbook to leave Arizona with a win, but Jackson will cause tons of issues for the Cardinals’ defense regardless.
Baltimore Ravens at Arizona Cardinals Prediction: Ravens Team Total Over 26.5
Baltimore Ravens at Arizona Cardinals Best Odds
The latest odds for this game have the road Ravens favored by 8.5 points. This line could be found as low as 6.5 points on the look ahead. The over/under sits at 44.5 points after opening at 43.5 points. The 8.5-point spread is ripe for a teaser if that’s your preferred betting approach in the NFL.
Baltimore Ravens Vs. Arizona Cardinals Key Injuries
The big injury news in Arizona is the status of quarterback Kyler Murray, who will soon be making his return from an ACL injury. It seems unlikely he will return to the field for this game, but that day is coming. Running back James Conner and tight end Zach Ertz are on the IR, further limiting an already struggling Arizona offense.
For Baltimore, there are a few defensive injuries to make note of. Linebacker Roquan Smith is dealing with a shoulder injury while safety Marcus Williams is working through a hamstring issue. Meanwhile, edge rushers David Ojabo and Tyus Bowser remain unavailable.
Baltimore Ravens at Arizona Cardinals Key Matchups
If the Ravens are going to put up another big number on the scoreboard like I’m expecting, it will come down to Lamar Jackson succeeding against this Arizona defense. Let’s dive into how that might play out on Sunday.
Lamar Jackson Vs. Arizona’s Pass Defense
Since he entered the NFL, Lamar Jackson has been one of the league’s best rushing quarterbacks. However, he appears to be evolving as a passer in this new-look offense. Jackson is averaging a career-high 8.1 yards per attempt, a 6.5% big-time throw rate, and a 79.3% adjusted completion rate per PFF.
The Arizona pass defense has struggled mightily, primarily due to their inability to get consistent pressure on opposing passers. They rank dead last in the NFL in pressure rate and will have to blitz in this game io generate pressure on Jackson. That’s a problem against one of the best quarterbacks against the blitz in the game.
The Cardinals’ secondary ranks dead last in PFF coverage grades, and their cornerbacks can’t hold up on their own without the benefit of pressure. That makes for a terrible combination wherein the Cardinals are statistically one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL, ranking second-worst by DVOA. Jackson should thrive against this defense.
Lamar Jackson is unbelievable 🔥 pic.twitter.com/pWGJqdSAXd
— Complex Sports (@ComplexSports) October 22, 2023