Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills Matchup Preview 1/16/21: Betting Odds, Depth Charts, Live Stream (Watch Online)
Two AFC powerhouses will square off this week, and this matchup all came about because of a Browns upset over Pittsburgh (if you want to call it an upset). The weather is going to be cold, but both teams will be used to it. Buffalo comes in as three-point favorites against this Ravens team, who beat their kryptonite, the Titans. The Bills hung on this past week against the Colts, and the major question was the defensive effort. They allowed over 400 yards, and the Colts were able to control drives but fell short in the red zone. Baltimore is an excellent red-zone offense that won’t make the same mistakes the Colts did. This is one of the toughest games to predict this weekend, as both sides have strong mobile quarterbacks, but the Bills passing attack will face an outstanding secondary that finally has gotten healthy. Vegas does expect some points here with a total of 50, but we saw some of the unders hit this week as the defensive efforts stepped up. For odds movement and full matchup history, visit the Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills Matchup Page.
Date: Saturday, January 16th, 2021
Time: 8:15pm ET
Location: Bills Stadium – Orchard Park, NY
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills Live Stream
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Baltimore Ravens: Ben Bredeson (O)
Buffalo Bills: Zack Moss (O)
Baltimore Ravens Analysis
This is going to be a real battle for the Baltimore defense, who showed up last week and stopped Derrick Henry for the first time in ages but also made life tough on Josh Allen. Buffalo certainly won’t be run-heavy this week and have what seems like an underrated group of pass-catchers, given it is Diggs, Brown, Beasley. All of a sudden, Knox is coming alive. Baltimore’s secondary has started to get healthy as that wasn’t the case towards the end of the year, and this will be the first test for Josh Allen and the offense in quite some time when it comes to facing a lethal secondary. Baltimore has a perfect matchup against the Bills run defense, and that is where I think they will find some major success. Buffalo allowed 4.7 yards per rush and ranked 17th against the run. We saw the Colts run all over them and have long drives, but they didn’t finish in the red zone. The Ravens have scored 62% of the time in the red zone. Baltimore runs the ball 55.8% of the time this season, and JK Dobbins will be a real issue. He rushed for six yards per carry this season as this fine-tuned rushing attack gives him a chance to break out these huge runs. Dobbins finished his rookie year with 805 yards on 134 attempts and nine touchdowns. You also have Gus Edwards as his backup, who has been tremendous in a limited role.
Baltimore Ravens Depth Chart
Buffalo Bills Analysis
Baltimore has allowed 18.6 points per game this season, which is tied for a league-low in 2020. Taking on a Bills offense that has put up 31.1 per game, we will see who breaks. Buffalo has thrown 60% of the time this season, which is great given they are only averaging 4.2 yards per rush and not running a uber-efficient run game outside of what Josh Allen does with his legs. Baltimore allowed just 5.9 yards per pass and 4.7 over the last three games. This will be a real battle between a delicious receiving core with Stefon Diggs, John Brown, Cole Beasley, and Gabriel Davis. I expect Buffalo to open it up and spread the field. Marcus Peters and Marlon Humphrey are the big names that will take on this receiving unit. Josh Allen might need to do a bit more with his legs, which isn’t bad. We have seen him have more rushing attempts against better secondaries this season. Buffalo’s defense will need to step it up against the run as mentioned above, but stopping Mark Andrews is going to need some emphasizing over the course of the week. Even in a weak AFC East, facing lackluster TE groups with the Patriots and Jets, they have allowed big numbers. Overall this season, they have let below-average tight ends pule up numbers, and we have seen big target games to tight ends. Nine tight ends against Buffalo this season have had 7+ targets against the Bills. They allowed a 92-993-8 line. Andrews is certainly in play for a breakout if they are not careful.
Buffalo Bills Depth Chart
Betting Corner: Bills -2.0
Spread: BUF -2.0
Moneyline: BAL -175 / BUF +155
The public is pretty split on this one currently, and that was to be expected given this game is truly up in the air. Buffalo range from being favored by two-three points depending on where you look, so it is important to shop around as always. The public is going over here as this could turn into a back and forth affair. These teams averaged over 28 points per game this season and moved the ball in big chunk plays. If the efficiency continues, the over should be there. Both teams have covered the spread 11 times this season, and the Ravens have covered in their last seven games. However, Buffalo is 8-1 ATS in the last nine, so this will truly be a battle.
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Daily Fantasy Picks
This is another game that should have some points on the board from both sides. I expect a lot of rushing production here, and while there are marquee wide receivers in this game, the matchups will be tough. The Bills allowed 24.6 PPR points per game this season and were average at best against the run. JK Dobbins has really taken a step forward over the last few weeks in terms of touches. We knew the talent was there, but now he has become a safer play, and I like him at his price tag once again. On the other side of this game, the Ravens have been a good run defense, and Zack Moss’s absence should give Devin Singletary a few more snaps and targets, but TJ Yeldon will get into the mix. Buffalo should be a bit more pass-heavy, and while the matchups are not great, Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, and John Brown are still well in play, given the upside. Now the big mismatch for me this week is Mark Andrews against the Bills. We saw the Bills struggled against Jack Doyle last week, but overall this season, they have allowed 15 PPR points per game to tight ends, which is the 5th most. Both defenses are allowed below the league average for fantasy points to quarterbacks, but these are also two of the safest quarterbacks due to the rushing ability.