The Los Angeles Chargers host the Baltimore Ravens in what should be an exciting Sunday Night Football game (11/26/23). In this article, find the latest betting odds for this game as well as a full matchup preview. In addition, find our Chargers vs. Ravens best bet which is over 48 points.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Los Angeles Chargers Prediction
When the Ravens face the Chargers on Sunday night, we’ll see two teams who have had very different starts to their respective seasons. Baltimore sits at 8-3 and is firmly in the driver’s seat in the AFC North while the Chargers are 4-6 and hanging on by a thread in a loaded wild-card race in the AFC. While I’m tempted to back Los Angeles as a home underdog of over a field goal, I believe the total offers the best value in this game.
A lot has gone wrong for the Chargers this season, but the marriage between quarterback Justin Herbert and first-year offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is starting to pay dividends. The Chargers boast a top five passing offense by DVOA and EPA, and while the receiving corps is missing Mike Williams and Josh Palmer, Herbert’s two highest graded games by PFF have come in the last two weeks.
Meanwhile, the Ravens’ offense has benefitted from first-year offensive coordinator Todd Monken’s modern offensive approach. Baltimore ranks fourth in offensive DVOA and is top eight in both passing and rushing. Lamar Jackson’s consensus +375 odds to win MVP are second behind only Jalen Hurts, and this game provides an excellent prime-time opportunity to further build his MVP resume.
The Chargers’ defense will afford Jackson plenty of opportunities both on the ground and through the air as they rank 29th in overall DVOA. Brandon Staley, a supposed defensive-minded head coach, seems to have lost the locker room on that end as coverage breakdowns, missed tackles, and blown assignments have become far too common.
The Ravens’ defense has been elite this season, but Herbert will be the best quarterback they’ve faced all year aside from a banged up Joe Burrow back in Week 2. I have lingering questions about Baltimore’s lack of a pass rush as they rank just 24th in pressure rate. They don’t blitz to compensate for this – they rank 27th in blitz rate – and that’s music to Herbert’s ears as he ranks 16th in PFF passing grade against the blitz and 6th when not blitzed.
The total has risen throughout the week as the market has backed the over, pushing it from a low point of 44 all the way to the current 48. While that has come through some key numbers, I still like the over so long as it’s under the key of 49 points. Primetime unders are cashing at an absurd rate this year, but that’s not enough to scare me off from backing these high powered offenses.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Los Angeles Chargers Prediction: Over 48 Points
Baltimore Ravens vs. Los Angeles Chargers Best Odds
The line movement in this game has been fascinating as the total has come up several points from the open of 44 to the current 48. Meanwhile, the Ravens could be found as high as 4.5-point favorites earlier in the week, but the market has backed the home underdog and pushed the spread down to -3. These odds lead to an implied score of around 26-23.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Los Angeles Chargers Key Injuries
The Ravens seem to be one of the most injured teams in the NFL year in and year out, and that’s no different this year. Tight end Mark Andrews suffered a significant ankle injury last week that could keep him out for the rest of the season while offensive tackle Ronnie Stanley and cornerback Marlon Humphrey are listed as questionable. The Chargers, meanwhile, saw star edge rusher Joey Bosa hit the IR with a foot injury while wide receivers Mike Williams and Josh Palmer remain out.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Los Angeles Chargers Key Matchups
The Ravens and Chargers were priced very similarly in the Super Bowl market before the season, but their seasons haven’t played out the same. These are still teams with some high level talent that will be on display on Sunday night. Let’s break down some of the key matchups that will decide this AFC contest.
Zay Flowers vs. Chargers’ Cornerbacks
With Mark Andrews out for the foreseeable future, dynamic rookie wide receiver Zay Flowers becomes the top option in the passing game. Flowers has caught 53 passes for 588 yards and a touchdown, and he had a long touchdown called back last week for a highly questionable holding. Flowers leads the team with a 25% target share, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see that creep closer to 30% with Andrews sidelined.
Flowers puts defenders on skates in the open field with explosive YAC ability, setting him up for success against a shaky Chargers secondary. The Chargers rank 26th against the pass by both DVOA and EPA, and cornerback Michael Davis has been a turnstile for much of the year, ranking 106th out of 127 qualified corners in PFF’s coverage grades.
Keenan Allen vs. Ravens’ Cornerbacks
The Ravens have been excellent against the pass all season, ranking 2nd by DVOA and 4th by EPA. However, the potential absence of Marlon Humphrey, their top cornerback, throws a wrench into things. Humphrey is one of the best corners in the NFL, and he changes the way Baltimore’s scheme operates when he’s on the field.
Keenan Allen would have an opportunity to take advantage of Humphrey’s absence as he ranks fourth in the NFL with 1,011 receiving yards. Allen is also top eight in both PFF grade (88.7) and yards per route run (2.57). Already the clear WR1 for this team, he has become even more important with Williams and Palmer sidelined, and I expect another heavy target share for him in this game.