Get Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers player prop picks & odds for the (12/25/23) matchup
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Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers Player Prop Picks
The NFL has blessed us with a fascinating Monday Night Football matchup on Christmas Day as the Baltimore Ravens face the San Francisco 49ers in a potential Super Bowl preview. Both teams are 11-3 and have been the two best teams in the NFL this season by most metrics.
In this article, I’ll break down some player props that I believe carry value in this Christmas game. Be sure to use the player prop search tool above to compare odds from different sportsbooks and ensure you’re getting the best odds for whichever prop you select. Let’s get to work.
Gus Edwards Over 2.5 Receiving Yards (-120 Bet365)
While Gus Edwards isn’t necessarily seen as the most dynamic pass-catching running back, I love the value on this prop. Edwards has been over 2.5 receiving yards in seven of his last 10 games, and that’s with Keaton Mitchell stealing plenty of receiving work. Mitchell is now out for the year, and he had averaged over 11 routes run in the previous three weeks.
Edwards is heavily juiced to the over on a receptions prop of 0.5, and he’s been over this yardage number in seven of eight games where he’s hit the over on that number. The 49ers have allowed 5.6 receptions per game to running backs this season, the fifth-most in the NFL, and with their nasty pass rush, Lamar Jackson could look to Edwards as a checkdown option out of the backfield more frequently.
Jake Moody Over 7.5 Kicking Points (+105 BetRivers)
The 49ers’ third-round pick this year and a former two-time collegiate All-American, Jake Moody is on his way to becoming one of the best kickers in the NFL. However, he’s only been over this number in six of his last 14 games and one of his last three. Still, that’s mostly due to the 49ers finishing drives with touchdowns instead of field goals more often, but that might not be the case this week.
San Francisco leads the NFL with a 68.5% touchdown rate in the red zone, but that could be challenged this week against an elite Baltimore defense that leads the league with a 37.5% touchdown rate allowed in the red zone. The Ravens allow 2 field goal makes per game, and if Moody gets two field goals and two extra points, he’ll hit the over on this prop.
Roquan Smith Over 8.5 Tackles + Assists (-130 DraftKings)
The upcoming matchup between Christian McCaffrey and Roquan Smith should have you fired up – that’s arguably the best running back and linebacker in the NFL. Smith is the only linebacker to play 700+ snaps and be ranked top ten in both PFF’s coverage and tackling grades, and he’s well on his way to a fourth straight All Pro nod.
Smith has over 8.5 tackles and assists in nine of 14 games this season, and that 64% hit rate would correlate to fair odds of about -180 on this prop using an implied probability calculator. However, Smith’s odds of going over are even higher in this matchup where he’ll likely be attached at the hip to Christian McCaffrey, who averages over 22 touches per game.