Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers: Prediction, Odds, Depth Charts (12/25/23)

The NFL brings us a Christmas present on Monday night (12/25/23) with a prime-time matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers. In this article, find the latest betting odds for this special Monday Night Football game and a full matchup preview. In addition, find our Ravens vs. 49ers best bet which is the Ravens +5.5.

Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers Prediction

The NFL has blessed us on this Christmas day as the Ravens travel west to face the 49ers in a matchup between the two current Super Bowl favorites. The 49ers have dropped as low as 2-1 to win the Super Bowl, and they are 5.5-point favorites here. We’re at a point where the 49ers are in a tier of their own in terms of market pricing, and it’s hard to argue with that being the case.

The 49ers lead the NFL in DVOA, EPA and net yards per play. They’re 19-2 straight up with Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel on the field, and Brock Purdy has put together a stellar 10-1 record at home. The current MVP frontrunner, Purdy leads the league in nearly all efficiency based metrics. This team is impossible to beat at home as they are 15-2 straight up and ATS at home since the start of last season.

It’s incredibly daunting to bet against all that, but I’m going to back the Ravens in this game. John Harbaugh is an elite coach and the addition of offensive coordinator Todd Monken has modernized the team’s offense. The team’s lifeblood is a defensive front that ranks ninth in pass rush win rate, but Lamar Jackson puts defenders in a blender and leads the NFL with a 10.9% big-time throw rate against pressure per PFF.

There are some injuries on the 49ers’ defense to monitor, as well. Defensive linemen Arik Armstead and Javon Hargrave missed last week’s game, and the Cardinals averaged nearly 8 yards per carry as a result. That won’t fly against Jackson and the top rushing offense in the NFL by DVOA and EPA, even with Keaton Mitchell sidelined for the rest of the year.

There are a boatload of trends that will lead you to back the Ravens as an underdog in this game, as well. Per our friends at Bet Labs, the Ravens are on a torrid 19-3-1 ATS (86%) as underdogs since December 2017. Lamar Jackson is 11-2 ATS (85%) as an underdog in his career, making him the second-most profitable quarterback over the last 20 years behind only Patrick Mahomes.

In a game where the Ravens find themselves as hefty 5.5-point underdogs, the second-biggest underdog spread of Jackson’s career, I’m happy to back Baltimore to keep this one within the number. Covering that type of spread against a team as well coached and disciplined as the Ravens requires a nearly perfect effort, and I’ll back Baltimore to keep this one close in what should be a spectacular game to watch.

Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers Prediction: Ravens +5.5

Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers Best Odds

The odds for this game have bounced around a bit between -4.5 and -5.5 in favor of the home 49ers, but in that range we’re in between two key numbers of 3 and 6, so it’s a bit of a dead zone. The over/under currently sits at 47 points. With the current numbers, the implied score would be 26-21 in favor of the 49ers.

Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers Key Injuries

The Ravens lost running back Keaton Mitchell for the season with a serious ACL injury on Sunday, and they could also be without left tackle Ronnie Stanley, who is in concussion protocol. Wide receivers Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham Jr. are listed as questionable at the time of writing, but I’d expect both to play.

On the 49ers’ side, the notable injuries to watch are on the defensive side. Defensive linemen Arik Armstead and Javon Hargrave missed last week’s game, and if they’re out again, it could be a real issue against the Ravens’ dominant run game. Cornerback Deommodore Lenoir is another key player to watch after he suffered a ribs injury last week.

Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers Key Matchups

In this matchup between two powerhouses, there are plenty of key matchups that deserve your attention. Here, I’ll break down two of the most crucial individual matchups in this game and how they might impact the winner on Monday night.

Ronnie Stanley and Morgan Moses vs. Nick Bosa and Chase Young

While the 49ers are dealing with those injuries on the interior of their defensive line, the edge tandem of Bosa and Young is still intact and is absolutely terrifying. Bosa has racked up a whopping 85 pressures this season, the second-most in the NFL per PFF, while Young has recorded 20 total pressures in six games with the 49ers.

Pressure doesn’t affect Jackson as much as it does other passers with his Houdini acts in the backfield – he has six touchdowns to just one interception under pressure this year. Still, the onus will be on Baltimore’s tackle tandem of Stanley and Moses to help keep him upright. Each has been responsible for allowing four sacks this season per PFF, although they both rank inside the top 32 offensive tackles in PFF’s pass-blocking grades.

Every Nick Bosa sack this year 💥 pic.twitter.com/kdijbTsIo1

— The Warner House (@TheWarnerHouse_) December 16, 2023

Christian McCaffrey vs. Roquan Smith

While the 49ers have a litany of elite skill players to throw at opposing defenses, there’s no question that Christian McCaffrey is the true difference maker for this team. CMC has over 1,800 yards from scrimmage and 20 total touchdowns this season, and he leads the NFL with 55 missed tackles forced per PFF.

Containing McCaffrey through the air and on the ground will be crucial to Baltimore’s efforts, and I suspect we’ll see a lot of linebacker Roquan Smith against him. Smith ranks top ten in PFF’s tackling and coverage grades at the linebacker position, and there’s certainly an argument that the three-time All Pro is the best in the league at his position. This duel between running back and linebacker should be fascinating.

Roquan Smith vs. the run, as a blitzer and in coverage. All on the same drive. pic.twitter.com/0L8zVPk3SO

— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) September 16, 2023

Baltimore Ravens Depth Chart

QB: Lamar Jackson
RB1: Gus Edwards
RB2: Keaton Mitchell
LWR: Rashod Bateman
RWR: Zay Flowers
SWR: Nelson Agholor
TE1: Isaiah Likely

San Francisco 49ers Depth Chart

QB: Brock Purdy
RB1: Christian McCaffrey
RB2: Elijah Mitchell
LWR: Brandon Aiyuk
RWR: Deebo Samuel
SWR: Jauan Jennings
TE1: George Kittle

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