Baylor vs. Oklahoma State: Predictions, Picks, and Odds (2/27/23)

As the College Basketball regular season winds down this week, there are still plenty of unanswered questions in conference standings.  Teams are looking to still win their conference or get better standings for conference tournaments.  That can’t be more of the case than in the Big 12, which has shown all season that it may be the deepest conference in College Basketball.  While Kansas still has the lead, anything can happen with two games.  Baylor currently sits two games back and will need to win their final couple to try and have a chance to claim a share.

They will be going up against Oklahoma State who is a little further down in the standings but has still been a competitive team all season and will most likely be an NCAA Tournament team.  They are on a four game losing streak however, so they are desperate for a turnaround before entering the conference tournament.  Any further losses could jeopardize what once was a very promising NCAA tournament appearance.  The Cowboys have been in and out of the AP Top 25.  Baylor currently sits at No. 9 in the AP and recently came off of a monster win against Texas, who is another high-ranked opponent.  Will they continue their momentum or will Oklahoma State find some of theirs back?  Let’s jump into this game’s picks and predictions:

Baylor vs. Oklahoma State Picks & Predictions

My Pick: Baylor -1.5 (-110)

I think this will be a slugfest of a game, but I do think that Baylor proved a lot in their win against Texas.  Winning by nine without your leading scorer shows this team is built for March and the NCAA Tournament.  I think Oklahoma State is a good team and will put up a fight but the Bears might be playing too well right now for the Cowboys to break their four game losing streak.  Looking at Kenpom’s Analytical rankings, Baylor currently sits at 13th while Oklahoma State is further back at 42nd.  George is averaging 16.3 PPG for Baylor so that is certainly a big miss.  Guys like Jalen Bridges, Adam Flagler, and Flo Thamba will need to step up.  Each of them did against Texas being able to score within double digits.  Kalib Boone leads the way in scoring for the Cowboys with 12 PPG but will most likely need to go above his scoring average to keep up with this Bears offense.  I expect a close game but I think ultimately, Baylor finds a way to come out and get a roadkill win.

The over/under line is a close one and I normally wouldn’t want to touch it.  I do think with leading scorer Keyontae George out for Baylor, that may force them to win more on the defensive end.  I would take the under in this matchup but I would be hesitant as these teams can score with ease when they want to.

Baylor vs. Oklahoma State Betting Odds

While this game is being played at Oklahoma State which is a tough road environment, Baylor is entering this game as the slight favorites.  This makes sense as they are currently a top-ten team in all of College Basketball as well as having the confidence after beating Texas.  Oklahoma State has also fallen on tough times, but that might mean they are due to get over their slump.  Baylor are only moneyline favorites of -122 odds.  You can grab Oklahoma States’ moneyline at +102.  The spread on this game is also -1.5 points in favor of the Bears so many expect this game to be extremely close.  That goes to show that Oklahoma State is still a very good team despite their losing streak and difference in record. 

The Big 12 has been a chainsaw for good teams all year and no matter how good you are, teams can drop any given night.  As we get closer to the end of the year however, teams have shown their ability to break out a bit.  Baylor was able to beat Texas without star player Keyontae George, and they will be without him again tonight.  It will remain to be seen if Baylor can prove to have another great offensive night without their leading scorer.  ESPN Analytics gives Baylor the slight edge to win in this game at 53.2%.  This also shows how close many are projecting this game.

The over/under line is currently 141.5 for this game.  This makes sense as you look at both teams’ scoring averages.  Baylor averages 78.1 PPG while allowing 70 points per contest on defense.  Oklahoma State on the other hand is averaging 69.5 PPG but also only allowing 66.5 on defense.  This puts each team’s scoring average very close to equaling the over/under line.

Key Matchup

Adam Flagler and LJ Cryer vs. Oklahoma State

With Keyontae George out, most of the offensive weight will be put on Flagler and Cryer to pick up the pieces.  Flagler is currently averaging 15.5 PPG and 4.9 APG.  As the second leading scorer and leading assiter on the team, Flagler should be able to step up as the go-to guy for the Bears on the road.  LJ Cryer is also averaging 14.7 PPG and is shooting 42.9% from 3-point range.  If he is able to knock down deep shots in this one, it could be a hard day for Oklahoma State fans.