Baylor vs Oklahoma Betting Odds
The Big 12 is so tough.
Oklahoma has lost four of its last five. But it has been against Kansas, TCU, Texas, and this Baylor team. Everyone is so good, that it sometimes feels impossible to win on any given night.
Just ask Baylor! The team that won 22 consecutive college basketball games, including a National Championship, recently dropped two games in one week.
But, in typical Scott Drew fashion, Baylor bounced back against West Virginia without two of its key contributors.
James Akinjo and Jeremy Sochan are still questionable for this matchup, so keep a close eye on the injury report before betting on this game.
Either way, Porter Moser and Co. are three-point home dogs heading into Saturday.
That’s an area where Moser has overachieved, but do the Sooners have the juice to compete with the defending champs?
Baylor Bears Odds
So, Baylor dropped back-to-back games.
Who cares? Gonzaga dropped two games earlier this season, and the Bulldogs are back atop the AP Polls.
Losses shouldn’t have come for either Baylor or Gonzaga last season, but losses always come in college basketball.
Therefore, we can’t look past how good the Baylor Bears are.
Defensively, the Bears are tenacious. They rank 12th nationally in defensive turnover rate and 12th in steal rate. They’re also ninth in half-court PPP allowed.
And the Bears do so without sacrificing rebounding, wherein they’re way above average in both offensive and defensive rebounding rates.
Image credit: CBB Analytics
Offensively, the Bears have been bad at getting to the line and making their free throws. However, Baylor is also 18th in effective field goal percentage and has been especially good in ball-screens.
Again, it’s imperative to watch injury reports before this game tips off. Without Akinjo, the Bears can be weak on the perimeter on both offense and defense.
But generally, LJ Cryer and Adam Flagler produce enough to offset any injury news on both ends. At least from a straight-up standpoint.
Oklahoma Sooners Odds
Tanner Groves has transformed the identity of Oklahoma.
The Sooners are a dominant interior presence, and they rank second in offensive effective field goal percentage and sixth in offensive block rate.
Groves basically shoulders the entire load. He takes a team-high 26% of the team’s shots and scores with an effective field goal percentage above 62%. He also scores almost eight points per game in the paint, which ranks in the 92nd percentile of D-I players.
Image credit: CBB Analytics
Despite a senior-laden backcourt, the Sooners guards have not given much support to Groves. Oklahoma is sub-300 in offensive turnover rate and sub-150 in 3-point shooting. The Sooners rank below the 20th percentile in off-screen PPP and pick-and-roll PPP.
It’s tough to see where Oklahoma lands in the long run. The team is 2-4 in Quad 1 opportunities, but you can’t deny the Sooners’ talent. I imagine you’ll find them seeded somewhere in March Madness, but it’s hard to know where.
Baylor vs Oklahoma Prediction and Pick
My pick: Oklahoma +3.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
As a short dog, coach Moser is always profitable. He’s 36-29 ATS as an underdog between 1-5 points in his career.
I don’t expect him to stop here. Especially since the Sooners are home dogs.
This handicap becomes more complicated when considering the injury issues going on with the Bears. I do like Oklahoma at this number if everyone is healthy. But I would keep a close eye on the pre-game injury reports before betting on this game.