Baylor vs Texas: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (2/28/22)

Baylor vs Texas Betting Odds

Baylor got its statement win of the second half of the season on Saturday, getting revenge over Kansas in a double-digit comeback win in Waco.

Next up will be Texas. This Longhorn team has quietly snuck up to fourth in the Big 12, picking up some important Quad 1 wins along the way.

But do the Longhorns have the firepower to compete with a healthy Baylor team that is back on track?

Baylor Bears Odds

Baylor’s win over Kansas was huge for the Bears.

Not only did Baylor avenge its pathetic and brutal 24-point loss to Kansas a few weeks ago, but it also moved into position for a one-seed in many projections.

To be fair, the Bears didn’t really slump in the middle of the season. Rather, Baylor has been injured. All of the team’s guards have taken stints on the injury reserve – including LJ Cryer, Adam Flagler, and James Akinjo – as well as rookie forward Jeremy Sochan.

So, with everyone back in the fold, Scott Drew is ready to attack again.

Baylor isn’t the best team in the country right now, but it’s close. The Bears are No. 3 in KenPom and No. 4 in Bart Torvik. From a less analytical standpoint, no team has more Quad 1 wins than the Bears this season.

Baylor struggled mid-season last year too, after a COVID pause. But once March hit, coach Drew rallied the troops and Baylor played at a higher level than we’d ever seen.

I bet the Bears can do it again.

Texas Longhorns Odds

Texas continues to be mercurial. But the Longhorns have played better in the second half of the season.

But Texas is not the top-five team it was projected to be in the pre-season. The Longhorns have flashed brilliance at times, but they can’t put it together on a consistent basis.

After a relatively slow start, Timmy Allen is playing like one of the best players in the conference. He pairs 12.4 points per game with a 58.5% true-shooting and a 113 ORtg. He’s also an excellent rebounder and can stretch the floor to the mid-range.

Marcus Carr has been inefficient scoring, but he’s taking care of the ball while providing high assist numbers. All he must do is get the ball to Texas’ shot-makers, so he’s doing his job in that regard.

Texas has a good defense, but it’s played worse during conference play. One of the main reasons is foul trouble, as the Longhorns are dead last in the conference in opponent free-throw rate. That’s a bad way to give up consistent points.

Baylor vs Texas Prediction and Pick

My pick: Baylor -1 (-110 at FanDuel)

The Bears are healthy. I think this spread is slightly too short for a Baylor team that is fully healthy.

When the Bears are right, the team is unstoppable. Baylor is looking right, and I don’t trust this Texas team in the least. Especially with the Longhorns coming off back-to-back wins against underperforming Big-12 teams (TCU, West Virginia).

I’m already seeing some line movement towards Baylor, which means the sharp money is on our side. Grab Baylor at anything better than -2 and watch the Bears roll on their way to a fourth consecutive victory.