Get Lions vs. Bears player prop picks & odds for the (11/19/23) matchup.
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Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions Player Prop Picks
If there is one consistent source of success for the Detroit Lions it’s that their offense is one of the most high-powered units in the league. This is in large part of Jared Goff slicing apart opposing secondaries, hitting his elite route runners in stride and opening up the field for their ground game. With the Bears fielding an elite run stopping unit, expect the Lions to once again lean on the arm of Goff in order to get the job done.
Jared Goff Over 267.5 Passing Yards
Another Lions game has come and gone with Jared Goff continuing to put together a MVP type season. He comes fresh off a win against the Los Angeles Chargers, throwing for an incredible 333 yards and two touchdowns and a game winning drive that involved a fourth down completion. His reward? Another weak pass coverage unit that is more than capable of getting shredded by the Lions pass attack.
While the Bears have quietly put together an elite run stopping unit, their back end has yet to produce as they rank a lowly 29th in Def Pass DVOA, 31st in Def Pass EPA, and 22nd in Def Pass Success Rate. That is a sharp contrast from their defensive rush metrics, clocking in at sixth in Def Rush DVOA, first in Def Rush Success Rate, and second in Def Rush EPA.
That may give the rushing duo of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs fits, forcing the Lions offense to revert to a heavier dose of the pass in order to move the ball down the field. Factor in the Bears secondary being less than 100% in terms of health and the Lions cast of pass catchers should have no issue with creating separation and busting out large gains in the open field.
Jared Goff Over 23.5 Pass Completions
Correlating this prop with the previously mentioned one, expect an uptick in pass attempts with the Lions ground game expected to struggle. With more pass attempts comes the potential for higher completions, playing right into this prop’s over as Jared Goff has proven to be incredibly accurate when hitting his receivers in stride.
Prime Jared Goff from ready the defense pre-play, to the perfect play-action, to the soft Dime touch pass for the TD —> pic.twitter.com/5bnE2XhkOR
— Erik Schlitt (@erikschlitt) November 12, 2023
Better yet, the Bears offense may keep this tighter than the spread implies for a majority of the contest as their defense has mightily regressed the past few weeks. While Justin Fields is not 100%, he still is a formidable quarterback to defend as he brings an elite running ability to compliment his throwing arm. That anchors the Lions linebackers in place, giving the Bears ground game the chance to continue to thrive and keep the sticks moving into scoring position.
Amon-Ra St Brown Over 84.5 Receiving Yards
Amon-Ra St Brown continued to remind the league why he is one of the better receivers in the league, turning in a performance resulting in eight receptions for 156 yards and one touchdown against the Chargers lowly defense. That is an astonishing 19.5 yards per reception with a majority of his catches having him wide open as he created separation with ease.
Expect more of the same as the Bears fail to field a true lock down corner and will be stretched out in their efforts to cover the field. Especially with Sam LaPorta and Josh Reynolds continuing to produce on the outside, leaving Amon-Ra with plenty of gaps to exploit for wide open throws.
Jahmyr Gibbs Anytime Touchdown
One of the bigger surprises in last week’s contest against the Chargers was the amount of usage Jahmyr Gibbs received when inside the red zone. It was heavily expected that this would be David Montgomery’s territory upon his return, instead opting into feeding the hot hand in Gibbs who punched in two touchdowns.
With markets still pricing Montgomery in this role for a high-quality opportunity to score, take a stab on Gibbs as the Lions have shown to ride momentum instead of actually plugging in the back for the correct situation. Especially with the Bears fielding an elite run stopping front seven, potentially needing the receiving threat of Gibbs in a screen or dump off.