Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions kicks off this Sunday (11/19/23) at 1:00pm EST in Detroit Michigan as a home game for the Lions. Get Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions predictions and best bets below as our best bet is on the Lions -1.5 as a Wong Teaser piece.
Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions Prediction & Best Bet
While not confirmed, it’s starting to look like Justin Fields will make his return from injury this week against the Detroit Lions. That would be a much-needed boost in quarterback production from their backup Tyson Bagent. While Bagent got off to a hot start in the win column against the Las Vegas Raiders, he eventually tapered off as he failed to stretch the field as a hyper conservative type of thrower. With Fields under center, the Bears now get a capable down field passer as well as scrambling presence.
While that does raise some concern against a Lions defense who has mightily regressed as of late, Fields may continue to struggle as he has said he’s not 100% and the Lions pass rush still remains in elite form. The front four generates pressure at the 10th highest rate in the nation while their Blitz Rate only ranks 23rd, meaning they will be in a position to contain Fields as the pocket collapses and the linebackers screen down the side when he runs.
On the other end it should be business as usual for Jared Goff and company. The Bears defense is one of the worst units in football, ranking 28th in Def DVOA and 29th in Def Pass DVOA. They fare far better in their efforts of stopping the run, ranking sixth in Def Rush DVOA, first in Def Rush Success Rate, second in Def Rush EPA, and second in Def Adjusted Line Yards. That makes for an intriguing battle against the duo of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, potentially being better off calling a heavier dose of the pass.
Opting into the idea of throwing the ball at a heavier rate will do wonders for the Lions offense as they have a massive advantage in that department. The Bears rank 32nd in Adjusted Sack Rate and 31st in Pressure, meaning Goff will find himself with plenty of clean pockets to work with. When in a clean pocket, expect Amon-Ra St Brown and Sam LaPorta to find consistent success as they wreak havoc against a Bears coverage unit who ranks 29th in Def Pass DVOA, 22nd in Def Pass Success Rate, and 31st in Def Pass EPA.
Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions Prediction & Best Bet: Detroit Lions -1.5
Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions Betting Odds
Before the Justin Fields news, oddsmakers had this game pegged as a Lions blowout by opening Detroit as a -10 favorite. That number has since come crashing down to -7.5 since the Bears reported that Fields may be able to give it a go. That has now put the Lions into teaser territory, getting the ability to take them down to -1.5 in a Wong Teaser.
As for the total, points are expected to be scored at a moderate pace as oddsmakers opened the number at 45. Bettors believe that number has opened way too low, backing the over up to as high as 48 in some shops. The issue with the over is that the Bears success may come from the ground game, bleeding the clock and limiting the number of possessions to clear it.
Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions Key Injuries
The Lions remain fairly healthy while the Bears turn their attention towards D’Onta Foreman who is currently listed as questionable on the Bears injury report.
Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions Key Matchups
Can the Lions front seven contain the Bears ground game?
Bears Rush Attack Vs. Lions Front Seven
D’Onta Foreman’s injury potentially plays a major factor towards the Bears offense as they have shockingly run as one of the best ground units in the NFL. Defending the run has been a regressing metric for the Lions, dipping to 11th in Def Rush DVOA.
D’Onta Foreman hammers it home 🔨
— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) November 10, 2023
Don’t let the dipping metrics in the Lions rush defense fool you, the Lions struggles with stopping the run have been correlated with opposing pass success. When Justin Herbert started picking apart the secondary, that forced the Lions to stretch out in coverage and put their run stoppers into coverage. Fields will not have the same pass success, allowing the Lions linebackers to crash the run lanes at a heavier rate.