Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings NFL Player Props & Picks (11/27/23)

Get Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings player prop picks & odds for the (11/27/23) matchup.

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Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings Player Prop Picks

Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings kicks off this Monday at 8:15pm EST in Minneapolis Minnesota as a home game for the Vikings. The Bears are currently a +3 underdog and +136 on the moneyline while the total is set at 43.5. Expect Alexander Mattison and Joshua Dobbs to struggle on the ground while Justin Fields makes plays with his legs, all giving value as player props for this Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings matchup.

Joshua Dobbs Under 39.5 Rushing Yards

Joshua Dobbs high level of play since joining the Vikings has not been anything short of remarkable. Especially since it started with him learning the playbook and his center’s cadence mid game, now most likely getting a whole playbook to use at his disposal. Even with Dobbs expected to use a higher dose of the pass as he gets more integrated with the playbook, the Bears linebacking unit will have to respect his running ability.

Luckily for the Bears defense, they are equipped to slow down Dobbs’ running ability as they field a very good linebacking unit. That was their main focus last offseason, spending millions of dollars to shore up that position and improve their defensive rush metrics.

They have done just that, now currently rank 11th in Def Rush DVOA, third in Def Rush Success Rate, and fourth in Def Rush EPA. Not only do they have the linebackers to crash down the edges, but their defensive line will also push back on run sets as they rank second in Def Adjusted Line Yards. Simply put, running will be tough to come by for Dobbs with his edges crowded and forcing him to revert back up the gut.

Joshua Dobbs Over 227.5 Passing Yards

Just because running may be tough to come by, doesn’t mean Dobbs will find success elsewhere as the Bears still field a weak coverage unit. While their front seven excels at stuffing the run as previously mentioned, the Bears secondary currently ranks 27th in Def Pass DVOA, 26th in Def Pass Success Rate, and 29th in Def Pass EPA.

JOSHUA DOBBS. pic.twitter.com/L7JqaVH3ro

— Big Orange Punch 🍊 (@BigOrangePunch) November 20, 2023

Not only will Dobbs get a weak secondary to pick apart, but he may find himself in a clean pocket throughout much of the contest as the Bears front seven ranks 32nd in Pressure. The Bears front four excels at holding their ground against the run, but getting to the quarterback has been an issue which plays towards Dobbs ability to make the right read and hit his receivers in stride.

Their coverage may be even stretched thinner as the Bears linebackers will have to be anchored as they spy Dobbs in the backfield. This gives the likes of TJ Hockenson and Jordan Addison the ability to crash back into the gaps, keeping the sticks moving with short throws across the middle.

Alexander Mattison Under 46.5 Rushing Yards

Not only will Joshua Dobbs struggle to find rushing success, but Alexander Mattison is poised to sputter as well against an impressive Bears rush defense. Rush success has been a struggle all season long for Mattison, seeing his rush attempts diminish as the Vikings try out Ty Chandler. This has led to a Vikings ground game that ranks 28th in Rush DVOA.

The spread also implies that this will be a tight contest, potentially forcing the Vikings to maintain a normal game script instead of trying to drain out the clock with the ground game. That takes away more rush attempts to our under tickets favor, making Mattison’s rushing under a play once again.

Justin Fields Over 51.5 Rushing Yards

How do you punish a blitz heavy team who generates little to no pressure in the backfield? By scrambling with an elite running quarterback. Justin Fields is capable of doing just that, finding the gaps in the line and getting to run against a thinned out second level of the defense.

His rush attempts were minimized early in the year, but it finally seems like the Bears are turning towards Fields and his running ability after gashing the Lions defense. He now gets the chance to take advantage of a Vikings front seven who ranks 19th in Def Rush Success Rate, meaning Fields and the Bears ground game should be able to routinely put themselves in favorable position to move the sticks by cutting the distance to gain in half on early downs.

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