Cincinnati Bengals vs. Jacksonville Jaguars kicks off this Monday (12/04/23) at 8:15pm EST in Jacksonville, FL as a home game for the Jaguars. Get Cincinnati Bengals vs. Jacksonville Jaguars predictions and best bets below as our best bet is on the Jaguars spread as a Wong Teaser piece.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction & Best Bet
It was a modest outing for Jake Browning in his first true start as the Bengals backup quarterback as he threw for 227 yards, one touchdown, and one interception against the Pittsburgh Steelers in a 16-10 loss. His attempts were limited as expected, making it intriguing to see if they are willing to open up the playbook more and let Browning air out the ball against the Jags in what will be another tough test against their vaunted defense.
The Jags defense have been an elite unit for a majority of the season, currently ranking fifth in Def DVOA as a whole. A majority of their success comes from their ability to stuff the run in the mid field, ranking first in Def Rush DVOA and second in Def Rush Success Rate. With Browning under center, it’s expected that the Bengals will lean on stud running back Joe Mixon for a majority of the contest, making it vital that the Jags front seven continues to dominate. This puts Browning in an unfavorable position, resulting in more stalled out drives and early outs.
On the other side of the ball, the Jags offense gets a very favorable matchup against a Bengals defense who struggles to defend against the Jags strengths. That strength is Trevor Lawrence’s ability to pick apart opposing secondaries in short routes, ranking sixth in Pass Success Rate. He now gets to potentially shred a regressing Bengals secondary who have dipped down to as low as 30th in Def Pass Success Rate. When they are not creating Havoc, this Bengals secondary has mightily struggled in coverage.
Better yet for the Jags offense, they may finally find some rush success this time around which would give them some much needed versatility. That area of the offense has eluded them, ranking a lowly 24th in Rush DVOA. Should Travis Etienne be able to give it a go, he gets a bounce back opportunity against a Bengals front seven who ranks 29th in Rush Def DVOA, 27th in Def Rush Success Rate, and 27th in Def Rush EPA. Should Etienne command defensive attention, then that opens up wider passing lanes on the outside for Lawrence to exploit.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction & Best Bet: Jaguars -3 Wong Teaser Piece
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Odds
This game has seen a drastic change in the spread since the injury to Joe Burrow as oddsmakers originally opened the Bengals as a -1 favorite. With Jake Browning under center, oddsmakers reopened the market with the Bengals as a +7.5 underdog. Bettors have since hammered the Jags spread, betting Jacksonville up to as high as -10 as of writing.
As for the total, oddsmakers believed points would be scored at a moderate pace as they opened the number at 41. Bettors believe points will come at a slightly slower rate, taking the under down to as low as 40. With limited tape on Jake Browning as the Bengals starter, it’s tough to say how the Bengals will do their part towards the total against a tough Jags defense.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Key Injuries
Outside of Joe Burrow, both starting units come into this one fairly healthy as only Cam Taylor-Britt has been ruled out ahead of time on the Bengals injury report.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Key Matchups
Can the Jags offensive line hold their ground and give Trevor Lawrence ample time in the pocket?
Jags Offensive Line Vs. Bengals Pass Rush
A big reason for the Jags early offensive struggles was because of poor offensive line play as this unit was decimated by injuries. Since getting healthy, the Jags have formed into an elite contender as their offensive line climbs up to as high as ninth in Adjusted Sack Rate.
Trevor Lawrence to Travis Etienne Jr Passing TD (9/1)
— NFL TD Videos (@NFLTDVideos2023) October 29, 2023
They now take on an average Bengals pass rushing unit, a defensive line that clocks in at 14th in Adjusted Sack Rate. Limiting Trey Hendrickson on the outside is especially vital for their offense, keeping pressure off of Lawrence and giving their pass catchers time to create separation off the line. Expect Etienne to rub off his shoulder on chip blocks, slowing Hendrickson down while hitting the flats as a potential dump off option.