Cincinnati Bengals vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Same Game Parlay (12/4/23): Expert Picks & Predictions

With both teams fighting for positioning in the highly competitive AFC, there’s plenty on the line as the Cincinnati Bengals travel south to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars in a prime Monday Night Football (12/4/23) clash. Let’s take a look at a Bengals vs. Jaguars same game parlay odds & picks to grab some extra value from this fascinating matchup.

Bengals Vs. Jaguars Same Game Parlay Picks

Of course, the absence of star Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow is a tremendous factor in this game, as he is out for the season. Both sides will adapt to this development, so let’s see how it might play out on the individual level for some players who will be active on Monday.

Leg 1: Joe Mixon Under 53.5 Rushing Yards (-165)

Football is a team sport; the defense’s solid play gives the offense more opportunities, great special teams play sets up the defense for success, and of course, a strong passing attack opens up running lanes. With Burrow out, and inexperienced career backup Jake Browning stepping in, Cincy’s air game has taken a major hit, allowing opposing defenses to really key in on the run.

It’s a small sample size thus far, but the early returns are not promising for the Bengals’ leading rusher, Joe Mixon. In the first game of Browning’s tenure, against a solid defense in a rivalry matchup with the Pittsburgh Steelers, Mixon ran the ball eight times for just 16 yards. Unfortunately for him, things aren’t about to get any easier; Jacksonville ranks first in the entire league in DVOA against the run, and second when it comes to success rate.

It seems that Mixon’s opportunities might be sparse, and when they do come, it’s hard to be confident that they’ll be particularly productive. Even when somewhat removing the Burrow variable, he’s only been over this number once in his past four outings, as he’s often failed to show the spark that made him so successful earlier in his career.

Leg 2: Ja’Marr Chase 40+ Receiving Yards (-275)

Of course, if the Bengals are shying away from running the ball, that means a higher emphasis on the pass, even with Burrow out. The Bengals are the second-most pass-heavy team in the league, going to the air on 66.51% of their offensive snaps, and that trend should continue in a game where they are likely to be trailing for much of the evening.

In Browning’s first start, he dropped back 30 times; Cincy ran just 41 offensive plays in a rough showing, so clearly, Zac Taylor isn’t afraid to put the ball in his backup’s hands. The Jacksonville defense grades well against the pass, but closer to top-10 rather than top of the league like it does for the run, so that’s definitely the matchup to attack for the Bengals.

In that game against Pittsburgh, Chase was by far Browning’s best target, recording team highs with six targets, four catches and 81 yards. Tee Higgins is of course expected to come back this week, but the former Clemson Tiger has been hampered by injuries and less productive than usual all season. Even when both have been on the field, Chase has been the top option in the Cincinnati air game, and that trend should only be emphasized as Browning leans on him in a tough situation.

Leg 3: Brandon McManus Over 1.5 Field Goals Made (-115)

Let’s just state the relatively obvious; Trevor Lawrence has had a bit of a strange campaign. He hasn’t had the year-three star leap that many expected after leading Jacksonville to a dramatic comeback win in last year’s postseason, and ranks right around league average by many efficiency metrics, even in what has been a down-year for QB play.

A symptom of Lawrence’s inconsistency has been some struggles in the red zone. Jacksonville ranks a disappointing 24th in the NFL in red zone efficiency, as they’ve turned less than half of their drives inside the opponent’s 20 yard line into touchdowns. They’re going up against a Cincy defense that ranks 10th in the red zone, so it’s not hard to imagine many drives stalling out in that portion of the field.

That being said, Jacksonville should be able to move the ball on a Bengals defense that has regressed a bit, especially when it comes to stopping the run. Travis Etienne could be in for a solid day, and there could also be some chunk plays available in the air game as Cincy continues to struggle to adjust to some offseason changes with the secondary. These approaches will help the Jaguars get down the field, but will be less available in the shorter areas.

Which brings us to McManus; when drives come a good distance but stall out, it’s time for a chip shot. He’s been over this number in three of his past four games, and has had enough attempts to hit it in seven of the 11 Jags games so far. In a game where his team might be able to chip away and still outpace a lethargic Bengals offense, expect McManus to get a good workout.

Leg 4: Over 2.5 Total Turnovers (-135)

This is a pretty simple one; on one side, we have an inexperienced quarterback going up against a phenomenal defense. This is Browning’s second career start, and Jacksonville ranks fifth in the league in DVOA, headlined by edge rusher Josh Allen, who could make things very challenging and pressurized for the Cincy quarterback. This is the exact kind of situation that leads to turnovers- potentially several of them.

On the other side of the ball, there’s Lawrence and his weirdly disappointing play. Lawrence has thrown seven picks via 13 turnover worthy plays, and they haven’t come in clusters; he’s had at least one of the latter in nine of his 11 games thus far. In what could be a hard-fought, gritty matchup, expect a couple of turnovers from each offense.

Same Game Parlay Card For Bengals Vs. Jaguars

Full parlay odds: +410

• Joe Mixon Under 53.5 Rushing Yards (-165)
• Ja’Marr Chase 40+ Receiving Yards (-275)
• Brandon McManus Over 1.5 Field Goals Made (-115)
• Over 2.5 Total Turnovers (-135)

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