Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens: Expert Same Game Parlay Picks for Thursday Night Football (11/16/23)
This week, we’ll be treated to an AFC North rivalry matchup on Thursday Night Football (11/16/23), as the Cincinnati Bengals (5-4) visit the Baltimore Ravens (7-3). The Ravens are 3.5 point favorites, while the total is set at 46.5 points. Ahead of the game, let’s dig into some Same Game Parlay picks, including legs of the Ravens moneyline, and player props for Joe Burrow and Zay Flowers.
Bengals vs. Ravens Same Game Parlay Picks
The Ravens are coming off of a brutal loss against the Browns, a game in which they were firmly in the driver’s seat most of the time, but suffered a catastrophic finish. The result allowed Cleveland to stay in the AFC North division race, while a Baltimore win would have been a relative nail in the coffin.
The Bengals are also a beneficiary of Baltimore’s slip-up, but barely; they’re sitting in last place, just a game over .500, hanging on by a thread in the division race. This game is a true inflection point for Cincinnati, they’re right back in it with a win, but essentially done with a loss and thus season sweep at the hands of Baltimore.
With that all in mind, let’s build a high-value Bengals vs. Ravens Same Game Parlay for Thursday Night Football. We built this SGP on DraftKings, but make sure to always shop around for the best odds before you place any wagers.
Ravens ML (-198)
To put it bluntly, the Ravens are favored in this one for a reason. Despite their loss to the Browns, the argument can still be made that this is the best team in the AFC, if not the entire league, as they currently rank first in DVOA and third in net EPA.
Of course, beating the Ravens comes down to slowing down Lamar Jackson, and while the Bengals defense has played better of late, they don’t really have anyone up to the task. The Browns built an elite defense targeted specifically at slowing down the dynamic Ravens QB, and they were still barely able to get the job done; Cincy’s unit, which ranks an unremarkable 16th in defensive DVOA, will be hard pressed to stop him.
Specifically, the Bengals run defense, which ranks 29th in DVOA, will have tremendous issues matching up with Baltimore, whose rush offense is the league’s best by the same metric. Jackson is of course a huge part of that, but Gus Edwards has been on fire as well, and will pose a real threat to the Bengals in this one.
On the other side of the ball, the Ravens defense had an off-day against the Browns, but still ranks second in the NFL in both EPA and DVOA. Baltimore is one of the best coached teams in the league, they’ve done a great job navigating a challenging schedule thus far, and with the short week magnifying the value of home field advantage, they should be able to pick up a huge win on Thursday Night.
Zay Flowers Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+200)
Flowers just isn’t scoring for how much he’s targeted. Lamar Jackson has thrown the ball his way 66 times this season, the 23rd-highest total for anyone in the league, but he’s scored just once, and by the time this game kicks off, it will have been more than a month since he’s found the end zone.
That’s simply not sustainable for someone who’s been doing everything right and has a solid quarterback; Flowers will start scoring sooner rather than later, but his recent form gives us the opportunity to grab some great value on him to score at +200. He’s Jackson’s top target by a mile and a half, and he’s had some bad breaks take away scores this year. This trend simply can’t go on forever, positive regression is surely on the way for the Boston College alum.
This is a great game for Baltimore to score touchdowns in general; their red zone offense is the league’s fourth-most efficient, while Cincy sits right around average. In terms of the air game specifically, the Bengals pass defense ranks an abysmal 29th by success rate, so they’re not exactly great at limiting the quick routes that Flowers can use to convert goal line opportunities.
Joe Burrow 200+ Passing Yards (-650)
This alternate line is an extremely conservative one, just to give a bit of a boost to the value of our overall Same Game parlay as the final leg, bringing the final odds to +325. We’ve brought the line all the way down to the low bar of 200 because Burrow has had some issues with the Ravens in the past, but given the form he’s shown recently, it shouldn’t matter.
Since the Bengals’ bye week, Burrow has been visibly much healthier than he was to start the year, and has flashed the franchise quarterback type form that we’ve become used to seeing from him. In that stretch, he’s garnered a passer rating of 111.9, and averaged 326 passing yards per game with a low of 283. Even after accounting for his dreadful start to the season, Burrow has thrown for over 200 yards in six of Cincy’s nine games, so clearing this number isn’t exactly a high bar for the former Heisman winner.
The Bengals should be behind in this one, which means plenty of passing attempts. Burrow threw 41 times in the last game against the Ravens, and while those attempts only yielded 222 yards, he was clearly injured in that game, and this time, the Baltimore defense will surely be a step slower than usual after the quick turnaround from a grueling game on Sunday.
It’s a fairly safe bet, but that’s the point; it gives us a slightly better payout without putting our Bengals vs. Ravens Same Game Parlay at too much additional risk.
Same Game Parlay Card For Broncos vs. Bills
- Ravens ML (-198)
- Zay Flowers Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+200)
- Joe Burrow 200+ Passing Yards (-650)
Full SGP odds: +325 ($10 wins $32.50)